Let’s dive into Andrew Erickson’s fantasy football draft strategy for the late rounds. He shares fantasy football draft tips and targets. And you can find his full perfect fantasy football draft strategy to dominate your competition.

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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

Approach to the Double-Digit Rounds

The full Sleeper List can be found here.

You should be actively implementing “what if” thought exercises in the late rounds of your fantasy football drafts. Simply put, “if “x” happens, what would that do to “x” player’s value.” Again, this is most commonly seen from injuries, with players seeing spikes in production/value when a teammate goes down. Some players have that factored into their ADPs with injury-prone teammates, but others do not. And at the end of the day, it’s full-contact football. Guys we expect to get hurt and guys we don’t expect to get hurt will miss games. We can’t project when/if said injuries will happen but savvy drafters can stockpile the back of their drafts with talented players who are being discounted because of their situation.

Worry not about what Player A’s role will be in Week 1 when you draft them in the late double digits. Chances are that doesn’t matter. Focus on their range of outcomes should he see an expanded role as the season wanes. Fantasy championships aren’t won in September or October.

Don’t overvalue early-season opportunities versus talent. Just buy the dip when ADP is so suppressed due to the situation. And don’t forget about the players who delivered worthwhile performances in the past when they were presented with opportunities. Being a proven asset in some capacity matters.

Puka Nacua, Brandon Aiyuk, Zay Flowers, Nico Collins, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, Jayden Reed, Jordan Addison, Jahan Dotson, Joshua Palmer, Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas, Dontayvion Wicks and Demarcus Robinson all either increased their production or commanded targets at a high rate due to injuries to teammates around them this past season. Not all of them are late-round picks, but some are still super cheap. And those are the archetype of players you should be looking to target.

Some of my favorite late-round WRs (outside the top 100) include Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Keon Coleman, Rashid Shaheed, Dontayvion Wicks, Darnell Mooney, DeMario Douglas, Khalil Shakir, Jermaine Burton, Joshua Palmer, Adonai Mitchell, Ja’Lynn Polk, Michael Wilson, Luke McCaffrey, Jalen McMillan, Andrei Iosivas, Jordan Whittington, Jalen Tolbert and Malik Washington.

I also believe in another thought exercise of, “He’s the discount version of Player X.” I find it very useful.

Players with defined roles that go extremely late can also be beneficial targets. The constant bombardment of “upside-centric” analysis makes these players not talked about enough. There’s an upside to playing an every-down role on an offense when heavily discounted.

Still, chasing the upside-centric dragon is not wrong. You want upside on your fantasy football teams. But some balance never hurts. Because “only-upside” players typically also have extremely shaky floors. And too many guys that fail to fire will leave your squad helpless.

Last note. Chase players that project for air yards and rookies. Air yards tell us how often a player is being used downfield, which is part of the formula when it comes to spike weeks of fantasy production. Particularly at WR and TE.

Some potential late-round guys in 2024 drafts that commanded a high end of their team’s air yards (20% or higher) in 2024 include Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Christian Watson, Mike Williams, Jerry Jeudy, D.J. Chark, Kendrick Bourne, Darius Slayton, Michael Wilson, Joshua Palmer, Gabe Davis, Kyle Pitts, Rashid Shaheed and Jameson Williams.

Players with high aDOTs (average depth of target) include Jalin Hyatt, Tre Tucker, A.T. Perry, Van Jefferson, Christian Watson, Gabe Davis, D.J. Chark, Marvin Mims and Jameson Williams.

When it comes to rookies, you need to be aggressive in drafting them. Specifically for rookie WRs.

Their ADPs often do not fully capture the upside they possess. The ADP acts more like a hedge or median projection when first-year players of recent years are so much more boom-or-bust. They either hit in a big way – Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, Drake London, Chris Olave, Christian Watson, Zay Flowers, Puka Nacua, Jordan Addison, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, Tank Dell – or drastically underwhelm – Jonathan Mingo, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Marvin Mims, Skyy Moore, Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams etc.

They are lottery tickets frequently discounted outside the top 36. Take full advantage. They all won’t hit. But being overweight on rookie will net you in the green.

Keep in mind rookie WR roles often grow as the season progresses. That makes them the perfect backfill targets for drafting formats with prize structures heavily based on the final few weeks of the season. My favorite strategy is drafting veterans and rookie WRs from the same teams. It’s a very underrated strategy that helps you capture an immense upside. Also, it guarantees you at least one “hit” from each WR group you draft.

Last year would have looked like this from some of the top guys

• SEA: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• LAC: Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston
• BAL: Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers
• MIN: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison
• CAR: Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo
• GB: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks
• HOU: Nico Collins, Tank Dell
• KC: Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice
• CLE: Amari Cooper, Cedric Tillman
• DEN: Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims
• NYG: Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton
• IND: Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs
• LAR: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua
• NE: JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeMario Douglas

We hardly saw both guys hit (C.J. Stroud, you are a god). But the presence of just one other pass-catcher suppressed the cost of the other making it easier for them to smash their ADPs.

If you missed out on a quality tight end in the early rounds then chasing quantity with multiple guys in the late rounds is your new strategy.

Essentially the TE15-TE32 range. But, in all honesty, this “late-round tier” starts after the top ten guys (Njoku/Ferguson).

I don’t overextend for any of these TEs because the production will likely be negligible at best drafting toward the beginning of the tier versus the end. Wait and take shots on multiple tight ends. Ideally ones with either a path for receiving volume, an every-down role, and/or above-average athleticism.

My favorite late-round tight ends to target (outside the top 10) include T.J. Hockenson (I’d bet he comes back in full after missing time post-ACL injury), Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry, Tucker Kraft, Brock Bowers, Zach Ertz/Ben Sinnott, Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson.

Among the late-round QBs, you must draft knowing what their schedule is to open the season. Because they are non-established studs, you need to know they have plus-matchups working in their favor to trust them in your starting lineup.

My favorite late-round quarterback options include Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Justin Fields and Daniel Jones.

I discussed ad nauseam the advantage you can acquire by drafting an elite tight end or quarterback in the early portions of your draft (especially in best ball). But chances are you aren’t doing both. Savvy drafters won’t let the elite onesie positions go by too frequently. There’s a chance you might need to address the position as the middle-rounds kick-off.

But there are so many options available with the late-round QB approach that it is my favorite strategy to implement in 2024.

The early-season schedule is also key. Signal-callers with a favorable schedule to start the year include Jared Goff, Caleb Williams, Deshaun Watson, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa and Daniel Jones.

Among the top-10 quarterbacks last season in total points scored in 2022, eight rushed for at least 250 yards. In 2023, six of the top eight QBs rushed for at least 240 yards. Call it the 55-25 rule. Can quarterback “X” throw 550+ times and/or rush for 250 yards? Those are your top targets. The QBs that accomplished this feat in 2023 were Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Sam Howell, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott.

Per FantasyPros’ projections, QBs with at least 535 projected pass attempts and 250-plus projected rushing yards are Daniels, Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Watson and Lawrence.

Round 9 Players to Target

• Christian Watson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chase Brown, Brian Thomas Jr.

Round 10 Players to Target

• Keon Coleman, Blake Corum, Tua Tagovailoa, J.K. Dobbins

TOP NAMES TO CONSIDER IN DOUBLE-DIGIT ROUNDS (FINE TO REACH)

Round 11 Targets

• Rico Dowdle
• Trevor Lawrence
• Khalil Shakir
• Curtis Samuel
• T.J. Hockenson (if you have an IR spot)

Round 12 Targets

• Chuba Hubbard
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Joshua Palmer
• Jaleel McLaughlin

Round 13 Targets

• Adonai Mitchell
• Taysom Hill (TE-eligible)
• Tyler Allgeier
• Ja’Lynn Polk

Round 14 Targets

• Kimani Vidal
• Rashid Shaheed

Round 15 Targets

• Khalil Herbert
• Isaiah Likely
• Justin Fields

Round 16 Targets

• Hunter Henry
• Ray Davis
• Bucky Irving

Final Round Targets

• Darnell Mooney
• Ty Chandler
• Michael Wilson
• Roschon Johnson
• Audric Estime
• Jordan Mason
• Juwan Johnson
• Zach Ertz
• Jalen Tolbert
• Jalen McMillan
• Andrei Iosivas
• Jordan Whittington
• Tucker Kraft
• Malik Washington
• Cam Akers
• Emanuel Wilson
• Seahawks DST (the only DST you need to DRAFT)
• Chargers DST (If Seattle is gone)

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Final Thoughts

You can play the value game until the cows come home. But the key to winning in fantasy football is to pair that value with early-round producers. Sometimes those early-round players don’t feel like values. But, that’s why they are going early. They are projected to be good and don’t necessarily have obvious flaws. And most importantly, nobody remembers the ADPs of guys that hit, unless they were essentially free at the end of drafts. If you are bullish on specific players and the price seems at least reasonable to a slight overpay, take the leap of faith.

To bring in a betting allegory – I am a BettingPros expert, after all – you can have all the closing line value in the world. And that should make you a profitable bettor over time. The same goes for drafting value in fantasy football. However, I’ve got a bookshelf full of closing line value (CLV) trophies that never amounted to anything. It doesn’t necessarily mean you were right about a certain player, team or situation, etc.

Conversely, I’ve made plenty of bets where I missed the value window, but ultimately, I was right, so it didn’t matter. We all want to get the best players at the best draft prices. Nobody wants to overpay. But if you truly believe based on your research, intel and perhaps gut that a certain player or team can be a major difference maker, the price shouldn’t matter. Because when it’s all said and done, the value doesn’t win for you.

And that dovetails nicely into my last (I promise) final thought experiment. You think Player A is going to smash. But my response is if you want him you must draft him in round one. No acceptations. Still, feeling bullish?

Do you like this player? Or do you just like the price of said player? Make sure you know the difference between the two types of players you are targeting. Because what often happens is you think you like a player, but you actually just like the price. But once the price changes, you don’t change your stance.

I lied. One more last takeaway.

I don’t know everything, but I can guarantee you will never draft a perfect fantasy football team (despite what my perfect draft article claims). Tournament-winning best ball teams that won millions of dollars have “bad picks” on them. I bring this up because you can strategically draft “misses” to better your team in the aggregate.

To bring up a real-life comparison, I’ll cite my final 2024 NFL Mock Draft for The Huddle Report. I placed very well in it because I attacked it with a different approach. I purposely let certain stud players fall like Quinyon Mitchell and Dallas Turner to teams they had been linked to throughout the process. I was essentially taking a loss in my estimation so I could bolster my picks at the start where I was more confident. I left my pursuit of perfection at the door trying to get all 32 picks exactly right in exchange for a higher hit rate on my other picks.

And it got me thinking about how I could similarly approach fantasy football drafts. After all, I will draft guys that bust or don’t do anything. And so, I bring forward the idea of hedging with your fantasy teams.

A lot of this is just RB handcuffing or WR/TE teammate stacking. I’ve been pretty against handcuffing RBs, especially in normal redrafts, but I’ve been more open to the idea when I’ve thought about it more. If I have to sacrifice a double-digit round pick to guarantee I’ll get RB1 production from my first- or second-round pick, I’m for it. And the same can be said for WR/TE stacking. Because once one guy goes down, you know the opportunity will be there for another pass-catcher in the offense to step up. I mentioned this when referencing the veteran/rookie WR draft strategy.

If the WR/TE starter stays healthy all year long and the rookie never sees the field? Well, I got a starter that produced all year long. I think the less you try to be 100% perfect with every single draft pick you make in pursuit of absurd levels of upside, the better off you will be. Some might cite this as playing scared, but I think it’s smart. The best ability is availability. And you’ll never go broke making a profit. If the opportunity arises in a draft to hedge (cost being appropriate) you should take it.

Fantasy Football Draft Rankings

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