My Week 2 Discord AMA is in the books. As a reminder, I’ll be answering questions in the Discord general AMA channel every Friday at 3:00 p.m. ET. This week’s questions had a few common threads, and this recap will tackle a few recurring topics from the AMA.
Friday’s Fantasy Football Discord AMA Recap
What’s the Deal with Dalton Kincaid?
User “AScottsuki” asked for my thoughts on Dalton Kincaid, and he wasn’t the only user to ask about Kincaid after another disappointing showing. It’s been a dreadful run out for him to start this year. His stock is down. Yet, Kincaid is a hold or buy.
The second-year pro has only six targets, five receptions and 44 scoreless yards through two weeks. Obviously, that won’t cut it. Still, the Bills had only three possessions in a sloppy first half in Week 1, with the Cardinals playing keep away. The game also reportedly had wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour.
In Week 2, the Bills smashed the Dolphins, and after an encouraging opening drive for Kincaid, he was evaluated for a concussion after taking a knee to the side of the head. So, his playing time in Week 2 should be taken with a grain of salt. Fortunately, Kincaid returned to the contest later.
His per-route data was also eye-catching against the Dolphins. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Kincaid was targeted on four of 14 routes, and half of his targets were first-read targets. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady dialed up short targets to allow Kincaid to run after the catch. Last year, Brady used Kincaid deeper. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kincaid had a 9.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in nine games with Brady as the offensive coordinator. Kincaid’s versatility as a field-stretching option and a run-after-catch player is a plus.
Everything isn’t rosy from an underlying data and context standpoint, though. The Bills don’t have the pass-happy offense this season they’ve had in previous years. Per the nfelo app, the Bills have had a negative seven percent pass rate over expected (PROE) this season.
Next week will be a critical data point for Buffalo’s offense. Per RotoViz’s pace app, the Jaguars were an extreme pass-funnel defense, facing the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%). Jacksonville changed their defensive coordinator in the offseason. Nonetheless, they faced a 56% situation-neutral pass rate in Week 1 and have a stout run defense. Buffalo’s path of least resistance against the Jaguars is likely through the air. If the Bills have a run-first approach in Week 3, the outlook for Kincaid and all of Buffalo’s pass-catching options will slip further.
What’s the Outlook for J.K. Dobbins This Week and Beyond?
J.K. Dobbins had approximately the best Week 1 he realistically could have. He split early-down work with Gus Edwards and handled the passing-down work. Dobbins also demonstrated explosiveness and stayed healthy. In this week’s bold predictions, I proclaimed Dobbins would be a top-12 running back in all formats in Week 2. The short-term outlook is excellent, and he’s a hold or buy. However, it wouldn’t hurt the manager rostering Dobbins to stash Kimani Vidal as a handcuff, given Dobbins’s laundry list of devastating injuries in his pro career.
What’s the Fallout for Miami’s Skill-Position Players After Tua Tagovailoa Suffered Another Concussion on Thursday Night?
Sadly, Tua Tagovailoa had another scary concussion. It’s entirely unclear when or if he’ll return to the Dolphins. Skylar Thompson was Tua’s backup, and he’s the next person up. Tim Boyle is the other quarterback on the roster.
Has Thompson improved since he last started as a rookie in 2022? Maybe. It’s a suboptimal situation for Miami’s skill-position players. The floors and ceilings for Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle are lowered unless Thompson is considerably better than he was as a rookie. The best move is to hold Hill and Achane.
Yet, Waddle is the player from the trio I’d be the most inclined to trade. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Hill has had a 27.1% first-read rate versus 15.3% for Waddle this year. In 2023, Hill had a 37.2% first-read rate compared to 23.9% for Waddle. Moreover, Hill has had 14 rush attempts versus eight rush attempts for Waddle since 2022. Unfortunately, Waddle’s performance will probably suffer the most significantly among Miami’s elite trio of speedsters.
Is Christian McCaffrey a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Sadly, the news has gotten worse with Christian McCaffrey since I completed the AMA.
Kyle Shanahan said the 49ers are now considering IR for Christian McCaffrey, as yesterday was his “worst day” with the Achilles/calf injury
– David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) September 13, 2024
Gamers with CMC and Jordan Mason should consider holding the former. Those without Mason, namely in leagues without an IR spot, should shop McCaffrey. Even if CMC avoids the IR, he’s unlikely to be used as the same bell-cow we’ve seen in previous years. It would be reckless and irresponsible of Kyle Shannahan to overload CMC since Mason is a quality running back, and the 49ers have Super Bowl aspirations.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
