After going 1-2 on last week’s bold predictions, I’m still batting .333 for the year. Most of the bold predictions this season have skewed positively, but this week’s picks have two bleak outlooks. Of course, positivity is more fun. So, this week’s bold predictions are concluded with my boldest flag plant of the season, calling my shot for this week’s RB1.
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Fantasy Football Week 4 Bold Predictions
Jalen Hurts isn’t a Top-12 Quarterback in Week 4
The injury report is wholly unkind to Jalen Hurts this week.
Today’s injury report for Bucs and Eagles. Minor progress but depth concerns persist at DL. pic.twitter.com/3FewEhDNp4
– Greg Auman (@gregauman) September 26, 2024
First, Vita Vea has practiced this week after missing last week’s game. He’s a massive body in the middle of Tampa Bay’s defense, and the Buccaneers stopped the Tush Push once last year before ultimately giving up a rushing touchdown.
Second, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson haven’t practiced this week. Given their lack of practice participation this week, the trio seems unlikely to play.
Hurts was the QB24 (11.9 points) last week without Brown. His life will be more challenging without Johnson providing protection and either of his top wideouts. Dallas Goedert had a superb showing last week, but Philadelphia’s other healthy pass-catching weapons are dreadful or unproven.
Hurts is the QB5 in the expert consensus ranking (ECR) in Week 4. He struggled last week with a healthier squad and has a matchup that gave him fits in the postseason last year. Hurts had 250 passing yards, one passing touchdown and five scoreless rushing yards against Todd Bowles’s defense in Philadelphia’s Wild Card Round loss last year. Gamers with Hurts are unlikely to have viable alternatives, but they shouldn’t count on him performing as a top-12 signal-caller this week.
Garrett Wilson isn’t a Top-24 Wide Receiver in Any Format in Week 4
Garrett Wilson is an unquestionably talented wideout. However, his fantasy production hasn’t matched his hype in the fantasy or tape-grinding community.
This season, Wilson is the WR39 in standard scoring, tied for the WR34 in half-point per reception (HALF) and tied for the WR28 in point-per-reception (PPR). Among wideouts this season, Wilson is tied for 16th in receptions (15), 33rd in receiving yards (150), 24th in air yards (235) and tied for ninth in target share (28.3%). Wilson also has one receiving touchdown and five rushing yards. Wilson’s 60 receiving yards in the opener were his season high, and he salvaged last week’s five receptions for 33 yards with a touchdown.
The Jets are 7.5-point favorites at home this week. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Jets have had a 47% rush rate on 106 plays when tied or leading this year, excluding the final two minutes of the first half. A positive game script would be bad news for Wilson’s fantasy outlook.
In addition, Denver’s 51% situation-neutral rush percentage against them is tied for the seventh-highest mark this year. So, the Jets might lean on the one-two punch of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen right out of the gate this week. Finally, according to ESPN, Patrick Surtain shadowed D.K. Metcalf, George Pickens and Mike Evans this year. Wilson will likely catch Surtain in shadow coverage, significantly reducing his chance to finish as a top-24 wide receiver this week.
James Conner is the RB1 in All Scoring Formats in Week 4
This week’s bold predictions aren’t entirely doom and gloom. James Conner is in an eruption spot this week. According to Pro Football Reference, running backs have smashed the Commanders for 103.3 rushing yards per game, 5.17 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 5.3 receptions per game, 45.0 receiving yards per game and 8.4 yards per reception.
According to PFF, Conner has handled 46 of Arizona’s backfield’s 66 rush attempts (69.7%), played 70 passing snaps and ran 49 routes versus 37 and 27 for Arizona’s other running backs combined. Unsurprisingly, Conner had his best showing this year in Arizona’s only win.
In Week 2, Conner had 21 rush attempts, 122 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, one target, one reception and two receiving yards against the Rams. His day could have been larger if the Rams had put up any fight instead of rolling over in a 41-10 defeat. The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites at home against the Commanders in Week 4, setting the stage for a potential positive game script for Conner. The ECR has Conner as the RB9 in standard, the RB8 in HALF and the RB8 in PPR in Week 4. Still, I’m more bullish, projecting him to top the field and lead running backs in scoring in all formats this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
