It wasn’t an ideal start to the bold predictions article for me last week as I went 0-3 in Week 1. Still, Kenneth Walker had an excellent week, and given the nature of bold predictions, a low hit rate is to be expected. The first of the Week 2 bold predictions tilts negative. However, the picks close with a pair of optimistic predictions.
It wasn’t an ideal start to the bold predictions article for me last week as I went 0-3 in Week 1. Still, Kenneth Walker had an excellent week, and given the nature of bold predictions, a low hit rate is to be expected. The first of the Week 2 bold predictions tilts negative. However, the picks close with a pair of optimistic predictions.
Breece Hall Finishes as an RB10 or Worse in Standard and HALF Leagues This Week
According to the expert consensus rankings (ECR), Breece Hall is projected to finish as the RB1 this week in half-point per reception (HALF) and standard leagues. Hall is undeniably an explosive workhorse running back. Nevertheless, he and the Jets are coming off a beatdown against the 49ers.
San Francisco bullied them, something the 49ers have done to most of their opponents the previous two seasons. Their physical brand of football has had a lasting impact on their opponents. San Francisco’s opponents have had losing records the following week in the past two years, going 7-9 straight up and 1-15 in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Per Covers, San Francisco’s opponents have also gone 8-7-1 and 3-13 against the spread the week after playing the 49ers.
The Jets are 3.5-point favorites on the road after a short week because they played on Monday Night Football in Week 1. The game’s total is 41.0 points, leaving New York with an implied total of 22.25. Points might be hard to come by for the Jets if the trend of San Francisco’s opponents struggling the following week persists.
Will Levis and the Titans choked on applesauce last week, losing 24-17 to the Bears after leading 17-0. However, the Bears had only 148 yards of offense. Caleb Williams was sacked twice, and the Bears fumbled three times, losing one. Chicago’s running backs also struggled, tallying 16 rush attempts, 55 rushing yards, two targets, one reception, eight receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
The interior of Tennessee’s defensive line is a nightmare for New York’s revamped offensive line. Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat are a load. Additionally, per the Fantasy Points data suite, New York’s 0.26 yards before contact in Week 1 were the second-lowest. So, the matchup is suboptimal for Hall, and Gang Green’s offensive line didn’t provide optimism about their ability to create space and running lanes for him. Hall should get enough volume to finish as a low-end RB1, but the overall RB1 is far too ambitious for my taste.
At Least Three Tight Ends Score 12.0-Plus Fantasy Points in HALF Formats in Week 2
The top-12 fantasy tight ends had awful showings in Week 1. Isaiah Likely erupted for a position-high 21.6 HALF points, followed by Foster Moreau‘s 12.3 and Kyle Pitts‘s 10.1. No one else reached double-digit HALF points last week. Last season, Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce were tied for the most HALF points per game (PPG) among tight ends with 11.5.
LaPorta and Kelce were tied for the most HALF points per game in 2023 with 11.5. So, this projection is bold because it’s calling for three tight ends to exceed last year’s overall TE1 HALF PPG. Additionally, we project Kelce to have the most HALF points (11.8) this week and only four tight ends to exceed 10.0.
Fortunately, many of the best tight ends had stellar underlying data despite their lackluster box-score performances. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, George Kittle (87.9% route participation), Colby Parkinson (84.3%), Trey McBride (84.2%), Hunter Henry (82.8%) and Dalton Kincaid (80.0%) had route participation rates of at least 80%. Kincaid’s game is already in the books, but Kittle and McBride can eat this week.
Furthermore, Pitts (78.6% route participation), LaPorta (77.4%), Brock Bowers (72.5%), Kelce (71.0%) and Mark Andrews (69.2%) had adequate or better route participation rates. McBride (29.0% target share) and Bowers (24.2% target share) also had excellent target shares.
The touchdown potential is also stellar for many of the top tight ends. The Cardinals (24.5 points), Ravens (25 points), 49ers (26 points), Chiefs (27 points) and Lions (29.5 points) have robust implied team totals north of 24 points in Week 2. As a result, the stud tight ends and even a mid-tier or streamer tight end should help alleviate the concerns of gamers after a disappointing showing at the position in Week 1.
J.K. Dobbins is a Top-12 Running Back in All Fantasy Scoring Formats in Week 2
J.K. Dobbins exceeded even the wildest expectations last week in every sense. In his return from another catastrophic lower-body injury, Dobbins made the most of a ho-hum workload. The former Raven ran 10 times for 135 yards and a touchdown and caught all three of his targets for four yards. Dobbins had 47.6% of LA’s backfield’s carries but ran a backfield-high 17 routes versus five for Gus Edwards and held a 22 to eight edge in passing-game snaps played in Week 1, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Edwards was inefficient as a runner, possibly opening the door for Dobbins to tilt the scale toward leading the backfield in carries. Circling back to Dobbins looking electrifying last week, he had a decent top speed. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Dobbins’s max speed of 19.92 mph on a 61-yard run was tied with Saquon Barkley‘s max speed for the 18th-highest mark in Week 1.
Despite the excellent showing, Dobbins has ECRs of RB21, RB21 and RB20 in standard, HALF and PPR, respectively, this week. He’s in an eruption spot this week. First, the Chargers are 4.5-point favorites. Second, the Panthers are a tire fire. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Panthers had the eighth-lowest stuffed rate (29.7%) and were tied for the 13th-most yards before contact (1.65) permitted to the Saints last week.
Meanwhile, the Chargers had the ninth-highest explosive run rate (7.4%) and the second-most yards before contact per attempt (4.00) last week. The Chargers have a butt-kicking offensive line, and their assignment will be easier this week after stud defensive tackle Derrick Brown landed on the Injured Reserve (IR) list for the Panthers. Dobbins was Week 1’s RB4 in all scoring formats and should smash again this week.
Josh is a savvy, grizzled veteran in the realm of make-believe sports. He's thoroughly experienced playing in season-long re-draft leagues, keeper formats and daily games. His fantasy advice for baseball and football has been found at many locations around the internet. He's finished in the top 10 accuracy scores among experts here, at Fantasy Pros, in three of four years competing with his colleagues including a first-place finish in 2012.
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