It’s time for the big reveal for teams. After a summer of speculating about how good teams will be and how coaches will deploy players, Week 1 is the first meaningful data point. It’s the optimal week for making bold predictions. Two running backs and a wide receiving corps are in the crosshairs for this week’s bold predictions.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Bold Predictions
Chase Brown Has Over 100 Scrimmage Yards and Reaches Paydirt
The layout is perfect for the Bengals to lean on their running backs. The Bengals are the biggest favorites this week, laying 8.5 points to the visiting Patriots. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Bengals had the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (63%) last season. However, when they were leading by at least six points and excluding the final two minutes in the first half, the Bengals had a 56% pass rate. It’s also reasonable to expect them to lean on the running game a bit more in a projected blowout after Ja’Marr Chase sat out during the offseason while negotiating for a long-term extension, saying nothing of Joe Burrow returning from a 2023 season-ending wrist injury that required surgery.
As a result, both Chase Brown and Zack Moss could reach double-digit touches. Yet, Brown might be the slight favorite to lead the backfield in touches after earning offseason praise from head coach Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher.
Moss is a reliable veteran and a known commodity, albeit not in Cincinnati’s offense. Nevertheless, it’s theoretically the optimal time for the Bengals to see what they have in Brown if the game is a blowout, as it’s projected.
Furthermore, it might be a tasty matchup. Jerod Mayo is a first-time head coach, and he doesn’t have Matthew Judon or Christian Barmore along the defensive line after trading the former and losing the latter to the non-football injury list with blood clots.
Brown has the explosivity to rip off chunk gains against the Patriots. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Brown’s 22.05 mph max speed on a 54-yard touchdown reception last year was the second-fastest max speed in the NFL. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Brown had four rushes for 15-plus yards on 44 attempts, 11.1 yards per reception and 4.46 yards per route run (Y/RR) in his limited playing time last year. If he receives 55-60% of the backfield’s touches in the opener, Brown can surpass 100 scrimmage yards and reach the end zone for a team with an implied total of 24.5 points.
Kenneth Walker is a Top-3 RB in All Scoring Formats
Kenneth Walker is another running back on a sizable home favorite. Apparently, that’s a theme for this week’s bold predictions. Seattle’s offense should be much more exciting this season than last year. Mike Macdonald was hired as the head coach to replace Pete Carroll. While Macdonald’s background is as a defensive coordinator, he brought Ryan Grubb along as the offensive coordinator. Grubb was the offensive coordinator for the University of Washington’s explosive offense last year. Michael Penix and the passing attack received most of the publicity for their vertical passing attack. Still, running back Dillon Johnson rumbled for 1,189 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns while adding 24 receptions for 190 receiving yards, per PFF.
With a new coaching staff, how they’ll handle Walker and Zach Charbonnet in the backfield remains to be seen. Yet, based on how Grubb gushed about Walker, the third-year back should be considered the favorite to lead the backfield in opportunities.
Walker is in an eruption spot if he handles 60-70% of the backfield’s opportunities against the Broncos. Per The 33rd Team, the Broncos coughed up the second-most rushing yards (2,013), the most yards per carry (5.2), tied for the ninth-most rushing touchdowns (12), tied for the fifth-most receptions (90), the 11th-most receiving yards (594) and tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns (six) yielded to running backs last season. So, Denver coughed up 153.4 scrimmage yards per game, 5.3 receptions per game and 18 touchdowns to running backs last year.
The Seahawks are a 6.0-point favorite. Therefore, the game script should be ideal for Walker. He has an expert consensus ranking (ECR) of RB9 in standard scoring, RB12 in half-point-per-reception (HALF) formats and RB13 in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. I initially set the bar at a top-five finish among running backs, but that wasn’t spicy enough. Since I expect a genuine blow-up showing on Sunday afternoon, a top-three finish is spicier and within reach.
The Jaguars Have Two Top-24 WRs in Week 1
The battle of the AFC’s Florida squads might be the most fun game in Week 1. The Dolphins and Jaguars have firepower, and Miami’s defense is shaky on paper. The game’s spread is only 3.5 points, and the total is a juicy 49.5 points.
Even as a 3.5-point underdog, the Jaguars have a tasty implied total of 23.0 points. The Jaguars were in the middle of the pack in situation-neutral pass rate (56%) last year. However, that could tick upward after they signed Gabe Davis and spent their first-round pick on Brian Thomas. They lost Calvin Ridley in free agency and released Zay Jones, but getting Christian Kirk back along with the other additions should result in an upgraded pass-catching corps.
Trevor Lawrence might not face too much pressure against Miami’s backsliding defense. Bradley Chubb is injured, and the Dolphins lost Andrew Van Ginkel and Christian Wilkins in free agency. Jaelan Phillips is also coming back from a torn Achilles. Van Gingkel, Chubb, Phillips and Wilkins were first, second, fourth and fifth on Miami’s defense in PFF’s pressure grade last year. Moreover, Chubb (11.0 sacks), Wilkins (9.0 sacks), Phillips (6.5 sacks) and Van Ginkel (6.0 sacks) were first, third, fourth and fifth on the 2023 Dolphins in sacks.
Sadly for the Dolphins, the bad news doesn’t end there. Jalen Ramsey hasn’t practiced this week because of a hamstring injury. If Ramsey is out, Miami’s secondary is in trouble. The setup is mouthwatering for Jacksonville’s wideouts. Yet, Kirk is Jacksonville’s highest-ranked wide receiver in HALF as the WR33. In other words, none of their wideouts are projected as top-24 wide receivers, but I expect two of them to finish inside the top 24 at the position in Week 1 — just don’t ask me which two out of Kirk, Thomas and Davis.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
