We are nearing the end of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. Picking favorable pitching matchups is very important now. Even with solid options, you still want to play the best matchups.
Maybe you bench your ace against one of the best lineups in baseball, when you could play a streamer against a poor lineup. Depending on the ace that might not be recommended. Picking streamers comes with risk, so for this time of the year, I would try and play streamers who are pitching earlier in the week. This way you can maybe control the weekend matchups you have. Or, if the earlier options fall apart, throw the kitchen sink at your opponent.
Also, with the baseball season ending soon, we know the lineups to exploit. The Chicago White Sox are a favorite to pick on. They do make an appearance this week for weekly streamers, but the Miami Marlins lead all other teams with three appearances.
Before we look into this week, let’s look at my picks from August 26th through September 1st:
- Edward Cabrera: 5.1 IP, 3 ERs, 2 BBs, 8 Ks (Loss)
- Andrew Heaney: 5 IP, 1 ERs, 1 BB, 2 Ks (No Decision)
- Osvaldo Bido: 6 IP, 2 ERs, 0 BBs, 5 Ks (No Decision)
- Ryne Nelson: 6.1 IP, 2 ERs, 0 BBs, 4 Ks (No Decision)
- David Peterson: 7 IP, 2 ERs, 2 BBs, 4 Ks (No Decision)
- Cody Bradford: 7 IP, 2 ERs, 0 BBs, 8 Ks (No Decision)
- Mitchell Parker: 6 IP, 3 ERs, 1 BB, 8 Ks (Loss)
Totals: 42.2 IP, 15 ERs, 6 BBs, 39 Ks (0-2)
If you could get points for no decisions, then it was a pretty good week. Nothing terrible, just ok starts. David Peterson’s start was moved up a day and he pitched well against the Diamondbacks, but I would have preferred the White Sox matchup. He was my prediction pick: 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 BBs, 5 Ks and the win. It was close but we missed the win.
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Fantasy Baseball Streaming Pitchers & Waiver Wire Pickups (Week 24)
(Roster percentages are based on an average of ESPN, YAHOO!, and CBS)
Monday, September 9th
David Festa (SP – MIN) vs. LAA | 36%
In David Festa’s 10 starts this year he has only gone over five innings once. On the brighter side, he has at least five strikeouts or more in eight of his 10 starts. I wouldn’t expect a huge outing for Festa here, but the Angels do have over a 24% strikeout rate against right-handers. They are also only hitting .225 against right-handers.
Take those two factors and add that the Twins’ lineup will be facing Griffin Canning. I like this start for Festa but don’t love it. However, I like it enough to make Festa my prediction pick: 5 IP, 2 ERs, 2 BBs, 8 Ks and the win.
Other Option: Valente Bellozo (RP, SP – MIA) at PIT | 8%
Tuesday, September 10th
Luis Ortiz (RP, SP – PIT) vs. MIA | 28%
Luis Ortiz is coming off back-to-back quality starts, where he allowed only five hits and zero earned runs while recording 10 strikeouts. He has gone over five innings in eight of his 11 starts this year. The strikeouts are somewhat lacking, but teams are only hitting .215 against him and Ortiz has a 1.09 WHIP. These numbers should work against this Marlins lineup.
The Marlins have the highest chase rate in the majors and a wOBA of .291. Against right-handers, they have a wOBA of .280. They strike out nearly 24% of the time against righties, so Ortiz could match his season-high seven strikeouts in this matchup.
Other Option: Rhett Lowder (SP – CIN) at STL | 24%
Wednesday, September 11th
Casey Mize (SP – DET) vs. COL | 13%
After missing two months, this will be Casey Mize’s third start since coming off the injured list (IL). In his two previous starts, he has been in the mid-80s for a pitch count. Mize has been a disappointment this year, but this start is against the Rockies, so I’ll take a gamble.
The Rockies are not terrible against right-handers, but they have over a 26% strikeout rate and a wOBA of just over .300. Plus, this game is away from Coors, maybe Mize can get some strikeouts and the win in six innings of work.
Other Option: Cody Bradford (SP, RP – TEX) at ARI | 47%
Thursday, September 12th
DJ Herz (SP – WAS) vs. MIA | 22%
DJ Herz has been up or down lately but with only eight games on the slate for this day, options are limited. With DJ Herz you will have the possibility for higher strikeout potential. The potential for a win could be harder to obtain. In his last 10 starts, he has just one win. He does have a 3.75 ERA and a 10.88 K/9 in the last 30 days, so perhaps he has had some bad luck.
The Marlins have a low walk rate against left-handers. As mentioned in the Ortiz write-up, the Marlins have the highest chase rate in the majors. I see low innings for Herz but good strikeout numbers. Hopefully, that will be enough to get a win.
Other Option: Frankie Montas (SP, RP – MIL) at SF | 42%
Friday, September 13th
Osvaldo Bido (RP, SP – OAK) at CWS | 44%
In the last 30 days, Osvaldo Bido has a 2.22 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 28 innings. During that span, teams are hitting just .144 against him. He is 3-0 in five starts.
This will likely be the last time Bido makes an appearance as a streamer since he is nearing the 50% rostership limit.
The White Sox continue to struggle this year, so they are easy to pick on. They have the worst wOBA against right-handers (.271), a 26% strikeout rate and a slugging rate of .343. I would expect the White Sox to continue their struggles against Bido.
Other Option: Mitchell Parker (SP – WAS) vs. MIA | 31%
Saturday, September 14th
Patrick Corbin (SP – WAS) vs. MIA | 16%
Back-to-back weeks choosing Patrick Corbin as a streamer. He now has three wins in a row. Is it time to jump on the Corbin train? The train might derail but it’s the fantasy playoffs, risks have to be made.
As I mentioned in the Herz write-up, Miami has a low walk rate against left-handers, and they do have the highest chase rate in the majors, but they also have the highest ground ball rate. The Marlins also have a low wOBA of .300 against lefties.
I don’t expect Corbin to have many strikeouts against the Marlins, but I was surprised to see he has 22 strikeouts in his last three starts. Corbin just might be a reliable streamer to end the year. Just watch for the favorable matchup.
Other Option: Andrew Heaney (SP, RP – TEX) at SEA | 46%
Sunday, September 15th
Cade Povich (SP – BAL) at DET | 9%
Cade Povich showed some promise after the second half. Before his last start, though, he was hit around a bit by the Dodgers and the Astros. We can argue that those were two difficult matchups, but you also have to consider his last start where he went 7.1 innings and struck out 10 was against the White Sox. Povich isn’t a great choice on this day, but streamers are lacking favorable matchups.
The Tigers are not an easy matchup, but they do have several left-handed bats in that lineup, so the left-handed Povich could have an advantage. The Tigers also have a lower hard-hit%, so Povich might be able to limit damage.
His counterpart is Keider Montero. Baltimore’s lineup should be to get Povich the run support he needs for a win.
Other Option: Ben Lively (RP, SP – CLE) vs. TB | 46%
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