With the 2024 fantasy baseball season winding down, some eyes are starting to peek towards what the 2025 season will look like. Specifically, how will regression impact certain players who have been particularly hot or underwhelmingly cold this year or parts of this year? Regression can often take a long time to emerge. At this point of the season, it’s never too early to look ahead and try to find it.
Last week, this column correctly predicted positive regression for Josh Naylor (four homers, .458/.500/.750) and negative regression for Triston Casas (.130 average, 30% strikeout rate). However, Adley Rutschman continued to struggle, with a batting average below .200 and just a .308 slugging percentage. Sometimes, the expectation of regression doesn’t match what happens.
This series highlights players due for positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance each week to assist fantasy managers in viewing each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
Today’s last piece in the 2024 season will look at some season-long statistics and performances that should regress in a significant way. These players should be a bounce-back or a drop-off when fantasy baseball comes back next spring.
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Tools
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates (2025)
(Stats up to date through September 2nd)
Players Due for Positive Regression in 2025
In many ways, Marcus Semien’s struggles are emblematic of those of the World Champion Texas Rangers. Semien has not been able to consistently hit all year, and neither have the Rangers, proving to be far too inconsistent. One year after hitting .276/.348/.478 with 29 homers and 14 steals, Semien is at .234/.306/.384 with 18 home runs and four steals in 2024.
After three straight seasons of 700+ plate appearances, some wondered aloud if his usage would get the best of him this season. That could be one explanation, but I see other signs that show things could swing back up for Semien in 2025. First, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) dropped more than 30 points from .299 to .241 this season despite identical walk rate, strikeout rate and zone contact rate.
The Rangers’ broadcast was doing a report on Marcus Semien as he forgot he was supposed to be on deck! “Hey Marcus, you’re on deck” ???? pic.twitter.com/aQ1qh2OkmN
– Baseball’s Greatest Moments (@BBGreatMoments) August 25, 2024
Semien’s barrel rate this year (6%) is the same as last year (6.5%), and his line drive went up slightly. There is no discernible reason why Semien should have fallen off this much, so a bounce-back season would certainly make sense in this case.
Just as Bo Bichette is closing in on yet another rehab assignment for yet another injury, it’s hard not to look at his stats and wonder where his year went sideways. Certainly, injuries played a role in his poor performance. Bichette has missed extended periods due to various ankle and leg injuries. This has, at times, sapped his power and his speed, leading to only four home runs, five steals and a .222/.275/.320 slash line in 2024.
Bo Bichette (calf) ran the bases Monday https://t.co/uI7j0rpXKk via @jesseg628 #TOTHECORE
– FantasyPros (@FantasyProsMLB) September 3, 2024
But there is hope on the horizon if we look into the crystal ball for 2025. At just 26 years old, Bichette is now entering his prime and these are not chronic injuries we are worrying about. Bichette’s walk rate and strikeout rate actually both slightly improved this season, it’s just that he got extremely unlucky everywhere else in regards to his offensive production.
Bichette’s BABIP is .266 this year, one year after reaching .355 (his career is at .338). It’s an abnormally low number explained away by injuries and bad luck. Bichette’s hard-hit rate this year (43%) is essentially the same as last year (44%), his average exit velocity is the same and his launch angle improved. We just have to chalk this one up to horrible circumstances all around and be excited that it will depress his average draft position (ADP) for the spring of 2025 when he will have his age-27 season.
Players Due for Negative Regression in 2025
In a truly miserable season for Oakland, the storied franchise, and their few remaining fans, Brent Rooker has been a bright spot all year. His .578 slugging percentage and .371 on-base percentage (OBP) put him in the top 10 in both categories this season and he has crushed 33 home runs with 93 RBI with 25 games still to go. But those numbers aren’t the only ones where he ranks in the top 10, but the next one is a list you don’t want to see heading into 2025.
Brent Rooker’s current OPS+ – 171 – is the exact same as the best qualified season of David Ortiz’s career (171 in 2007),
– nugget chef (@jayhaykid) September 2, 2024
Rooker’s .364 BABIP is the third-highest in the Major Leagues this year, and he has somehow achieved that with a 29% strikeout rate. Usually, a .364 BABIP is reserved for the speediest of players, who can beat out a lot of groundball hits. O’Neil Cruz is number one this year, with a .371 BABIP. But Rooker is just about the 55th percentile for speed score and is not the fastest guy around.
There is no telling what dimensions of what park Rooker will call home next, so it’s possible he could be aided by some band-box where balls fly. But all things being equal, Rooker has relied on some good luck to have a career year at age 29.
Connor Wong easily had the best season of his young career in 2024. With still almost four weeks to go, Wong is hitting .281/.336/.424 with 12 home runs and six stolen bases. Batting average, home runs and steals from a catcher? It’s like a fantasy baseball dream season.
However, Wong has been outplaying his expected statistics all season and we will likely see many of those numbers fall off next year. Wong’s expected batting average, according to Statcast data, is just .235. He has one of the widest gaps in all of baseball between his actual batting average (.281) and his expected average. Likewise, his expected slugging percentage (.357) is almost 70 points higher than his actual performance (.424).
At this rate, it looks like Wong will be over-ranked among catchers next year, but don’t get fooled by the good fortune this year. Keeping those numbers going with a career 14.4% swinging strike rate will be a difficult task.
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