11 Dynasty Risers & Fallers (2024 Fantasy Football)

After the longest offseason in the history of mankind, or so it felt, NFL football is back. We were gifted a mixed bag of goods in Week 1, with many pedestrian quarterback stat lines and bizarre game scripts. We don’t want to overreact after just one week of performances to evaluate. One way to remain grounded is to keep an eye on usage in addition to the raw statistics.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the dynasty risers and fallers, based on usage and stats, Week 1 style.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers

Isaiah Likely (TE – BAL)

With the entire NFL world watching on opening night, Isaiah Likely stole the show with nine receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown. His 26.1 PPR points led tight ends in Week 1 (barring Monday Night Football results), nearly doubling up the second highest total. Although Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will rarely find themselves in such a pass heavy game script, there’s plenty of reason to remain optimistic on Likely.

The Ravens played primarily out of 12 personnel, allowing Mark Andrews and Likely to share the field frequently. Andrews tallied 58 total snaps compared to Likely’s 52, while Andrews played 11 snaps in 11 personnel and Likely played nine. This is by far the most playing time Likely has seen with a healthy Mark Andrews, and it resulted in 12 targets compared to two for Andrews. It’s worth noting that Andrews was often bracketed and taken away by the Chiefs defense, but Likely’s future looks as bright as ever.

J.K. Dobbins (RB – LAC)

Much was made of the fact J.K. Dobbins was only guaranteed $50,000 by the Los Angeles Chargers at the time of his signing. It’s understandable considering he hadn’t played a full game in nearly two years, but Dobbins looked like his old self on Sunday, rushing for 135 yards and a score on 10 rushing attempts.

Gus Edwards saw 11 carries to Dobbins’ 10 while the two split early-down work, but Edwards was unable to find much success with just 26 rushing yards. If Dobbins continues to make explosive plays and remains healthy, he should operate as the Chargers’ lead back moving forward.

Tank Bigsby (RB – JAX)

I took an ‘L’ on Tank Bigsby last season after liking him as a prospect and buying into the training camp gossip he would be heavily involved. The same narrative was present leading up to this season as the Jaguars have expressed a desire to limit Travis Etienne‘s workload. Week 1 could not have gone any better for that narrative as Bigsby rushed 12 times for 73 yards.

Etienne still played nearly 70% of the snaps but tallied just 44 yards on his 12 rushes, including a touchdown. Bigsby ran just four routes to Etienne’s 17 and is unlikely to take on full offensive drives, but he will continue to see a good chunk of early-down work this season.

Joe Mixon (RB – HOU)

I wrote about Joe Mixon in my undervalued running backs article prior to the start of the season, and much of his early success with the Texans is explained there. Bobby Slowik’s offense is a much better fit for Mixon than what he’s used to, and it showed to the tune of 159 rushing yards and a touchdown on 30 Week 1 caries.

The veteran running back also caught three passes from C.J. Stroud, adding 19 yards through the air and finishing as the PPR RB2 through Sunday’s games. As amazing as Stroud and the pass-catchers in Houston are, the Texans want to run the ball. Mixon is going to see a workhorse role on the ground and be featured in the passing game. Wheels up for the eighth-year pro.

Jameson Williams (WR – DET)

It’s been a long time coming for Jameson Williams. You won’t find anybody who was higher on Williams as a prospect than I was, and even I sold all my dynasty shares. That was a bit premature it seems, as Williams broke out on Sunday night with 121 yards and a touchdown on five catches to go with an additional 13 yards on one carry.

The Lions and Rams were in a slugfest until Williams broke loose for a 52-yard touchdown reception early in the third quarter. You could feel the energy intensify when the 2022 first round pick touched the ball, which was the vision when the Lions took him 12th overall. There was a clear emphasis on getting him the ball. Good vibes all around for Williams.

Bucky Irving (RB – TB)

If you’ve read a bit of my work, you know my stance on Rachaad White. I wrote about my concerns with White and my optimism for Bucky Irving. The fact remains White is an extremely inefficient rusher, and finally, the Bucs have a capable back to take more work.

To be fair, many of Irving’s carries came later in the game while the Bucs salted away a big lead, but his nine carries for 62 yards were much easier on the eyes than White’s 31 yards on 15 carries. White played at least 70% of the snaps in all but one game last season and fell just under the 70% mark in this one. The Bucs chose to ride Irving’s hot hand late, which could become a theme as the season rolls along.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Fallers

Luke Musgrave (TE – GB)

After Tucker Kraft tore a pectoral muscle this offseason and needed surgery, it appeared Luke Musgrave had a leg up on the TE1 job. Not so fast. Musgrave played just 17 snaps on Thursday compared to Kraft’s 64. Although Kraft received just one more target, Musgrave failed to corral either of his two looks while Kraft caught two of three for 37 yards. With so many mouths to feed in the Packers offense, it’s going to be nearly impossible for Musgrave to be fantasy relevant if he’s not playing a bigger snap share. Fantasy start sit decisions weekly will be difficult.

Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)

Looking out of sync since becoming a member of the Cleveland Browns, Deshaun Watson continued to struggle heading into year three with the dawg pound. Watson aired it out 45 times but tallied just 169 passing yards en route to a touchdown and two interceptions.

After missing the final 11 games last season, there was still hope Watson would return healthy and show signs of his early career success, but he doesn’t seem to be a fit in Kevin Stefanski’s offense. It feels like an uphill battle for Watson to return to a competent quarterback. If it’s still not happening, will it ever? Unfortunately for the Browns, Joe Flacco is under contract with the Colts.

Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN)

I, like many others, have been optimistic about Tyjae Spears’ chances of emerging in the Titans backfield. It could still happen, but his usage in Week 1 was similar to last year rather than an increased role. Spears took most of the third-down/passing-game work, while Tony Pollard saw the bulk of the early-down work.

Pollard carried the ball 16 times to Spears’ four, while each saw four targets a piece. For Spears to become a fantasy starter, he will need to see a heavier volume of work on early downs. Perhaps the Titans are set on his role considering the injury risk that comes with his history, but as of now, Spears is only a Flex consideration in heavy passing game scripts.

Cole Kmet (TE – CLE)

Last year’s TE8 overall, Cole Kmet originally figured to be a big beneficiary of the arrival of Caleb Williams. That became murky after the team brought in Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, but even muddier when we saw Gerald Everett‘s apparent role through training camp and preseason.

That carried into Week 1 as Kmet ran just 12 routes compared to Everett’s 21. The two tight ends each saw one target a piece, so there’s not much to go around for this group as it is. With Everett looking like the preferred pass-catching tight end, Kmet’s dynasty value is on life support.

Christian Kirk (WR – JAX)

The assumed No. 1 receiver for Jacksonville, Christian Kirk instead ceded more snaps to both Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. Davis played 50 snaps compared to Thomas’ 42, while Kirk played just 38. It appears Kirk will not be on the field in single-receiver sets and is the early favorite to play the fewest amount of two-wide receiver sets.

Kirk can still have a big impact as a vertical slot receiver in this offense, but his upside is capped if he doesn’t play on the outside in two-wide receiver sets. It’s also worth noting Thomas Jr. is really good at playing football.

Articles Dynasty NFL Weekly Advice Isaiah Likely Lamar Jackson Mark Andrews J.K. Dobbins Gus Edwards Tank Bigsby Travis Etienne Joe Mixon C.J. Stroud Jameson Williams Bucky Irving Rachaad White Luke Musgrave Tucker Kraft Deshaun Watson Joe Flacco Tyjae Spears Tony Pollard Cole Kmet Caleb Williams Keenan Allen Rome Odunze Gerald Everett Christian Kirk Gabe Davis Brian Thomas Jr.