In my top games of Week 5, Oklahoma State and Kansas State face off after both teams suffered their first losses of 2024. The highly anticipated showdown between top-five teams Georgia and Alabama is set to deliver a thrilling clash of two powerhouse teams. This week is sure to bring plenty of drama and key performances. I will break down key points of the matchups while providing my betting picks, highlight devy prospects to watch and look at the current state of the Heisman Trophy race.
All betting odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Games of The Week
No. 20 Oklahoma State @ No. 23 Kansas State (-5.5) | Total: 54.5 | Saturday, Noon ET on ESPN
Both of these teams are coming off losing their first game of the season disappointingly. Oklahoma State dropped a close one to Utah 22-19 and Kansas State was blown out by BYU 38-9. Before last week, both teams scored at least 31 points in each game, making the current total of 54.5 extremely reachable. Doak Walker award winner Ollie Gordon II has struggled to find his grove this season and will have a tough matchup as Kansas State ranks in the top 25 for rushing yards allowed. It will be an uphill battle for Oklahoma State if they cannot get the run game going and sustain drives. Kansas State also ranks in the top 20 offensively for rushing yards per game, showing they can control the time of possession and the game’s tempo.
I believe this game will produce lots of points from the get-go and go down to the wire. It will be a test for Avery Johnson coming off the worst game of his young career, which saw him turn the ball over twice and not be able to find the end zone. Oklahoma State must find a way to get Gordon rolling early and often to win this game.
My Picks:
- Moneyline: Kansas State
- Spread: Oklahoma State +5.5
- Total: Under 54.5
No. 2 Georgia (-2.5) @ No. 4 Alabama | Total: 49.5 | Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Arguably the most anticipated game of the 2024 season takes place Saturday in Tuscaloosa. Georgia has not beaten Alabama on the road since 2007. So far only Georgia has truly been tested by an opponent while Alabama has cruised to 3-0 without much resistance. The key for Georgia will be QB Carson Beck bouncing back from a subpar performance vs. Kentucky and producing scoring drives more often than not. Kalen DeBoer has his offense running like a fine-tuned machine, averaging 49 points per game led by Heisman candidate Jalen Milroe.
This game should be a back-and-forth battle all game long but I expect Alabama to walk away with a huge victory. I don’t see Georgia’s offense being able to keep up with Alabama’s explosiveness for four quarters or their defense to be able to get enough stops in the end.
My Picks:
- Moneyline: Alabama
- Spread: Alabama +2.5
- Total: Over 49.5
Devy Spotlight
Cameron Ward (QB – Miami) | 2025
Cameron Ward has solidified himself as a serious candidate for the Heisman Trophy, putting Miami in a great position for an ACC title and playoff berth. He is skyrocketing up NFL draft rankings and is in the conversation to be a first-round pick in April. Per ESPN, Ward has the second-highest QB rating at 94.2 while completing 72.4% of his passes and a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio.
Miami finally enters ACC play Friday night vs. Virginia Tech, whose defense has been very stingy against the pass, ranking 23rd in yards allowed per game (160.0) and 10th in completion percentage (51.65), per Team Rankings.
This will be the toughest matchup Ward has faced so far at Miami. It will be huge for his Heisman run and potentially how he is viewed when playing a legitimate Power 4 defense. On my 2025 big board, Ward has risen to QB3 only behind Shedeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers. I’m expecting another 300+ yards and multiple touchdown game leading Miami to a big win at home.
Zachariah Branch (WR – USC) | 2026
Zachariah Branch had his best game of the season against the toughest defense USC has faced in Michigan, finishing with six catches on 13 targets for 98 yards. He saw a huge increase in targets from five and six in Weeks 1 and 2. Hopefully, this will be more of the norm rather than an outlier.
USC heads back home to face another tough defense in Wisconsin. We’ve seen the explosive playmaking ability from Day 1 but now we need to see if he can command a bigger target share each week and not only be a gadget player. Branch still sits atop my devy rankings for 2026 WRs.
Caden Durham (RB – LSU) | 2027
Caden Durham has made his presence known early this season and looks to push Kaleb Jackson for the No. 2 RB role. After not playing week 1 vs. USC, he has compiled 157 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns on 25 touches. In comparison, Jackson has 104 yards and zero touchdowns on 24 touches. If it continues to trend this way, Durham could have a sizeable role by the end of the season and potentially be in line for the No. 1 RB job in 2025.
Heisman Trophy Race
Per FanDuel Sportsbook, the top-five Heisman favorites are:
- Cameron Ward (QB – Miami) | +350
- Jaxson Dart (QB – Ole Miss) | +500
- Jalen Milroe (QB – Alabama) | +750
- Nico Iamaleava (QB – Tennessee) | +1000
- Dillon Gabriel (QB – Oregon) | +1250
We have the same top five from last week but in a slightly different order and odds. Jaxson Dart went from +600 to +500 this week, Jalen Milroe dropped from +600 to +750. Nico Iamaleava and Dillon Gabriel traded spots while both dropped in odds. Quinn Ewers makes his return to the race sitting at +1400. Travis Hunter entered the top 10 at +1700 after his fourth straight 100+ yard game.
Ashton Jeanty made his return to the field with 127 yards and zero touchdowns, thus dropping from +2000 to +3300 this week. Arch Manning had a solid but not overly impressive starting debut and dropped from +1600 to +5500, however, this is mostly due to Ewers expected to return sooner rather than later.
This week my top bets to make would be on Ward, Dart and Hunter.
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