3 Fantasy Football Stats to Know Before Setting Your Lineup (Week 3)

We have reached Week 3, and offensive totals are down across the NFL. Mel Kiper is having a nightmare of Two High Shell, and we are left to wonder where we can create an edge against our opponent to win our fantasy league. This article will help guide you with the correct research to identify who can have a breakout game and perform above expectations. Let’s break down three stats that will help you navigate the Week 3 Slate, starting with a breakout rookie, Malik Nabers.

3 Fantasy Football Stats to Know Before Setting Your Lineup (Week 3)

A Good Naber Is A Found Treasure

Did I turn an old Chinese proverb into a fantasy football statement? I sure did!

Last week, we watched Malik Nabers turn in a stellar performance, recording 10 receptions for 127 yards with one touchdown. Nabers has been on the field constantly for the New York Giants, running the 14th most routes and seeing 25 targets, the third-highest in the NFL this season. Daniel Jones is leaning into his talented rookie wide receiver to help move the chains, as Nabers has nine first-down receptions, the fourth-highest in the NFL.

This week, the Giants face the Cleveland Browns defense, which can cause havoc for any quarterback. Jones would be wise to lean on his sensational rookie again to help the Giants upset the Browns this week. The good news for the Giants is that the Browns love to run man coverage 33.8% of the time, one of the highest rates in the NFL.

Like a good “Naber,” his stats are there (hopefully, you read that with the State Farm Jingle cadence like I wrote it). Nabers has already run 10+ routes against man coverage in his short career. On those routes, he has excelled with seven targets and a 60+ target per route run (TPRR) rate. He has 95 yards against man, which equates to 45+% of his yardage total for 2024, and he already has over 20 fantasy points against this coverage.

Let your “Naber” borrow a cup of sugar as you easily add Nabers to your lineup this week.

What’s A God To A Non-Believer

According to Jay-Z and Kanye West, there may be No Church in The Wild, but a fraud scenario is brewing in Tampa Bay swirling around Chris Godwin. On paper, you may see the stats surrounding Godwin in the 2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense and be highly excited. His 15 receptions sit at third-best in the NFL, while his 200 receiving yards are second-best in the entire league for the 2024 season. Godwin also has 12 first-down receptions, which is first overall in the NFL. Everywhere you look, you see positives for Godwin’s fantasy production.

However, let’s look a little deeper into the weeds and examine his separation score. Godwin’s separation score is negative 185. Yes, you read that right -185. Combine that stat with Godwin’s win rate of 14.8%, and you have to have cause for concern moving forward with Godwin on your fantasy team.

This stat does not help you win Week 3 in the traditional sense. This stat is a long-term dividend play. You have to look at this Godwin situation like you would look at a bond your grandmom gave you for your 13th birthday; you can’t utilize it just yet.

This week, the Buccaneers play the lowly Commanders passing defense. Rick Moranis’ Little Giants could pass against this defense. Godwin should give you a strong performance in Week 3. However, those stats show an unsustainable production level. We can take the hot start of Godwin, combined with an easy Week 4 matchup against the Eagles passing defense, and turn Godwin into a more sustainable play for our fantasy team. Keep your eye on the market in your fantasy league, and be prepared to strike while the iron is hot.

The Deep Ball Brings All The Boys To The Yard

We all love the deep ball. It exhilarates us and instantly racks up fantasy points for our team. We recognized in Week 1 when Anthony Richardson threw a pass that went 60+ yards, and that’s why he is second in deep throw % in 2024. However, Trevor Lawrence is first overall in this category with 21.6% of deep throws. This statistic is crucial because we know the Jaguars have started slow as an offense this season. However, his fantasy stock will take off when Lawrence cleans up his short-game accuracy and decision-making. We also know that Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis are both options for the flex role for our team in the future. This week, they face the Buffalo Bills defense, which is no easy feat.

Vegas has this game at an implied total of 45 points, meaning they expect a shootout to occur in this matchup. Don’t be scared to start either of the wide receivers or Lawrence in this game. Lawrence should elevate from his 28th overall adjusted completion percentage of 67.4% to bring the Jaguars to a competent level in Week 3.

Lawrence should reach another level within his fantasy game, as his 9.8% drop percentage is the fifth highest in the NFL. Lawrence has struggled, but his pass-catchers have not helped the Jaguars’ offense either. Lawrence’s 7.49 yards per attempt is 13th overall this season. If the Jaguars focus and get back to the basics, we will have an offense that can entertain and develop into one of the best in the NFL.

We also know that Buffalo has struggled against Jacksonville historically, as they are 4-6 against the Jaguars in their last ten matchups. Don’t let the past dictate your future; use these players in your redraft, dynasty and DFS lineups in Week 3.

Remember to read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros. We curated a plethora of research to help you analyze each player and make the correct decisions for your fantasy football league. If you ever need more help, don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter at @jpep20. Good luck in Week 3, and let’s get that victory!