Two young wide receivers from the AFC North going as high-end WR3s in half-point per reception (HALF) formats are overvalued and ill-advised selections at their respective ADPs.

• 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Overvalued Wide Receivers in Half-PPR (August)

The wide receiver landscape is exciting for the 2024 fantasy football season. The position has elite talent at the top, young ascending talent in the middle and even intriguing dart throws later in fantasy football drafts. Nevertheless, some wideouts will undoubtedly fall short of the expectations accompanying their average draft positions (ADP).

George Pickens (PIT – WR): 58.7 ADP | WR27

I admit I wasn’t enthused about George Pickens after a largely unimpressive rookie season in 2022. However, Pickens made the leap from an overrated player based on highlight reels with lousy underlying data to a big-play wideout with improved metrics.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Pickens was 33rd among 61 wide receivers targeted at least 70 times (including the postseason) in PFF’s receiving grade and 20th in yards per route run (2.05 Y/RR). Unfortunately, he was targeted on a mediocre 19.6% of his routes, and even Pickens’s stellar efficiency resulted in a WR32 finish in HALF points per game (PPG) among wide receivers who played at least eight games last season.

Pickens could take another step forward in 2024. Sadly, new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith doesn’t inspire confidence in bringing the best out of Pickens and Pittsburgh’s passing attack. Smith is a ground-and-pound proponent. He was the offensive coordinator for the Titans in 2019-2020 and the head coach for the Falcons in 2021-2023. According to RotoViz’s pace app, only one of Smith’s offenses had an above-average situation-neutral pass rate, and the other four were in the bottom three. The following table has Smith’s offense’s situation-neutral pass rates and ranks.

The Steelers were the only team with a lower situation-neutral pass rate than the Falcons last year, so Mike Tomlin is unlikely to push Smith out of his run-first tendencies. Additionally, the Bears, with Justin Fields as their quarterback, were tied with the Falcons for the lowest situation-neutral pass rate in 2022, and Fields is now competing with Russell Wilson for Pittsburgh's starting gig. Neither Wilson nor Fields are fantasy-friendly quarterbacks.

Unsurprisingly, Smith's offenses haven't yielded high-end fantasy results from his top-scoring wide receivers in most seasons. A.J. Brown was fantasy football's WR5 in HALF PPG (15.2) in 2020, but Smith hasn't had even another top-24 wide receiver in the past five seasons. The following table has the HALF PPG and finishes among wide receivers for Smith's highest-finishing wide receivers since 2019.

Calvin Ridley played only five games in 2021, but his 11.1 HALF PPG would have ranked as WR30 among wide receivers who played more than two games that year. With all due respect to Pickens, he's not in the same class as Brown or Drake London and is probably closer to Ridley. Ridley's stellar season was in Smith's most pass-happy offense. Because of Smith, Wilson and Fields, Pickens's profile has more downside than upside, making him an unappealing pick at his ADP.

Zay Flowers (BAL - WR): 59.0 ADP | WR28

Zay Flowers had a rock-solid rookie season, finishing as the WR31 in HALF PPG among wideouts with at least eight games played in 2023. Yet, Flowers ran pure last year, and this year's NFL Draft class added high-end talent to the wide receiver pool. Thus, improving upon last year's finish will be challenging even with a step forward.

Circling back to Flowers's 2023 runout, he benefited from Lamar Jackson having an MVP Award-winning season and Mark Andrews missing substantial time last year. Andrews was out for Week 1 and from Week 12 through the Divisional Round (Week 20). Flowers was significantly more productive without Andrews, and since Andrews played only seven snaps in Week 11, it's included in Flowers's split without Andrews in the following table.

Andrews is healthy to start the year, depressing Flowers's floor and ceiling. Flowers also benefited from a lack of talent among Baltimore's other pass-catching options. If Rashod Bateman can improve this year or fourth-round pick Devontez Walker can play better than last year's ancillary wide receivers, then Flowers will have stiffer target competition. Regardless, Andrews is Baltimore's top pass-catching option, and Derrick Henry is an upgrade in the backfield, suggesting the Ravens won't turn over a new leaf and open up the passing attack further. Breaking even isn't out of Flowers's range of outcomes, but gamers are better off veering from Pickens and Flowers in this range of ADPs for another position.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.