I’m always a fan of the Anchor RB/Hero RB builds, but a nice Zero RB approach gets the juices flowing more than anything. The most important element of these game plans is which running backs you take in the middle to late rounds. Are you playing it safe to ensure some production? Trying to outkick the coverage with upside? Here are a few fantasy football running backs to take a look at who are currently being undervalued, according to average draft position (ADP), in half-PPR formats.
I’m always a fan of the Anchor RB/Hero RB builds, but a nice Zero RB approach gets the juices flowing more than anything. The most important element of these game plans is which running backs you take in the middle to late rounds. Are you playing it safe to ensure some production? Trying to outkick the coverage with upside? Here are a few fantasy football running backs to take a look at who are currently being undervalued, according to average draft position (ADP), in half-PPR formats.
Following Ken Dorsey’s firing and Joe Brady taking over play-calling duties, James Cook ascended and finished as the half-PPR RB10 in Weeks 11-18. Cook’s role in the receiving game is one reason for the bump, as he saw just 2.8 targets per game with Dorsey, climbing up to 3.7 with Brady. Overall, Cook saw a 9% target share last season. There’s no reason he can’t jump a few percentage points with Brady calling plays for a full season and with the Bills’ turnover at wide receiver. Targets are up for grabs with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis out the door.
Another reason for optimism is that the Bills have utilized a goal-line back previously, but don’t currently have a player solidified in that role. Ray Davis and Frank Gore Jr. are rookies who may or may not be in the rotation, while Ty Johnson isn’t known for his short-yardage prowess.
Cook has been one of the most efficient backs in the league since joining the Bills, a trend that continued last season as he was fifth in yards per touch and sixth in yards per route run. He finished fourth in rushing yards and eighth in receiving yards, but what if he gets a boost in targets and builds upon his two rushing and six total touchdowns? In an elite offense, Cook feels like a safe bet at his fantasy ADP, but there’s still some meat on the bone. He should be going ahead of Rachaad White. The 16 picks separating him and Isiah Pacheco is too big of a gap.
With the move from Cincinnati to Houston, Joe Mixon finds himself in a familiar situation with an ascending quarterback and loads of talented pass-catchers. For Mixon, the biggest adjustment will come in a transition from the Bengals’ shotgun-heavy, spread offense to a West Coast offense. Texans Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik hails from the Kyle Shanahan tree and primarily runs a zone scheme, which should benefit Mixon, who ran out of a shotgun formation on 75% of his rushing attempts last season, which was good for the sixth-highest rate among running backs. His under-center carry rate of 25% landed him at 67th.
Ultimately, running a zone or gap scheme might not make a huge difference for Mixon, but the Texans’ first-down formations resulted in 33% shotgun, 26% single back and 15% I-formation, compared to the Bengals, who ran shotgun 66% of the time, compared to 11% single back and 1% I-formation. Mixon will have the benefit of more under-center handoffs, and the cherry on top of utilizing a lead-blocking fullback in some instances. The Bengals also ran off the guard nearly twice as often as they did off the tackle, creating more inside runs and leaving Mixon with little room to maneuver away from defenders. The Texans are far more balanced in that regard, allowing Mixon to get outside and upfield more frequently. Slowik’s group even sported a negative pass rate over expectation (PROE) while the Bengals finished last season with a 5.6% PROE, the second-highest mark in the league. With all of that said, Houston is certainly going to let CJ Stroud cook. Mixon has consistently been one of the better receiving backs in the league.
It’s difficult to find running backs with projected volume, on the ground and through the air, in a top-tier offense, and with a quality running scheme. It’s even harder to find them outside of the first few rounds. Mixon’s price tag is a gift to Zero RB drafters everywhere.
Despite his recent hamstring injury, Jaylen Warren remains a value as he is not expected to miss more than one game, if any at all. You can read about why he’s a value here.
“Javonte Williams is on the roster bubble,” they said. As those rumors picked up, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime gained steam. I’m a fan of Estime, but his time isn’t here yet, and this is looking more like a two-man backfield with a strong likelihood that Samaje Perine gets cut. In the first week of the preseason, Williams handled the first 10 offensive snaps while recording four carries and two targets, good for a 60% share of the offense. Perine worked in on third downs and McLaughlin eventually entered the frame. In the second game, however, McLaughlin was the first one rotating in on third downs. I envision McLaughlin’s workload picking up this season as he scoops up Perine’s work, while Williams continues to operate as the lead back, similar to last season. If that’s the case, both backs can return value at their ADPs.
Sean Payton’s offenses have ranked top-five in running back targets every season from 2014-2021, and the Broncos finished second in that category last season. We know Bo Nix is an efficient underneath passer who likes to target running backs, so there should be plenty of targets to go around. We’re also two years removed from Williams’ horrific ACL/LCL injury, which is historically when running backs have reached their full recovery. Let’s not forget how productive the former Tar Heel was in his rookie season while sharing the backfield with Melvin Gordon. Williams was second in the league, only to Jonathan Taylor, in missed tackles forced after a rush with 63. His yards after contact have always been supreme with his contact balance, but he looks quicker this season and has reportedly cut his weight to be more agile.
So long as Perine is a non-factor and Estime remains on the shelf, Williams and McLaughlin can be a force together.
Another running back listed among my breakout players, Tyjae Spears is a dynamic pass-catcher who should see more work on the ground this season. You can read more about my bullish outlook on Spears here.
This is a bet against Ezekiel Elliott, who is going as the RB36/109 overall, as much as anything, but Rico Dowdle has some explosiveness to his game. In comparison to Elliott, who appears to be running in sand, Dowdle looks like he’s shot out of a cannon. Last season, Dowdle finished ninth among running backs in yards created per touch and was generally effective when given the opportunity.
The Cowboys’ coaching staff has spoken highly of Dowdle all offseason and into the preseason, with the latest praise coming from offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.
In order:
Rico Dowdle – “I think Rico Dowdle’s having a hell of a camp” (very positive nonverbal communication)
Ezekiel Elliott – “Zeke’s another one of those guys where we’re going to be smart, like Brandin [Cooks], he doesn’t need every rep”
I take it as a positive for Dowdle that the team brought in Elliott, knowing where he’s at in his career, and nobody else at the running back position, aside from Royce Freeman. Dallas should have a prolific offense once again. Somebody in this backfield will reap the benefits.
Speaking of betting against players — Bucky Irving is a bet against Rachaad White. He’s being drafted well beyond other rookie backs who are buried on their team’s depth chart, but Irving is likely to open the season as the Bucs’ number two running back. White, while effective as a receiver, has been one of the least efficient backs in the league over the last two seasons. Much of his receiving work is simply a benefit of him being the only viable running back to eat up the workload, but that may change this season with Irving.
Irving is a compact runner who plays with physicality and can generate yards after contact but also makes guys miss in space. He’s not on the level of White as a pass-catcher yet, but he has the hands to succeed as a receiver. He can certainly siphon some of the early down work from White. If he can improve his route running and pass protection, there’s potential for more. He’s already making a sizeable impression on the Bucs’ coaching staff and standing out in training camp, with head coach Todd Bowles stating, “He usually always makes the first guy miss, he’s very tough in between the tackles and he’s got burst.” Those are three elements White is lacking in. Not many running backs in this range have an opportunity to push the starter in the way Irving does.
