When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into some of Derek Brown’s favorite early-round fantasy football draft picks to target.

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2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Approach to Round 1

Depending on your draft spot, the idea is always to stay fluid in round 1. If you have a top-three selection, then the conversation is simple. Select one of Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, or Ja’Marr Chase, whoever falls to you. Without a tight end making it into the top 12 of ADP anymore (bye-bye Travis Kelce), this is a choose-your-own-adventure round from running back or wideout.

Early-Round Players to Target

• Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF): McCaffrey remained “THE DUDE” at running back in fantasy last year. He was the RB1 in fantasy, finishing as an RB1 in 81% of his games and as a top 24 RB in every game he played. McCaffrey averaged 21.2 touches and 126.5 total yards per game while ranking second in carries, fourth in targets, and first in red zone touches among running backs. There’s no reason to expect a falloff entering 2024. His deeper efficiency metrics all scream that he remains in the prime of his career after ranking fourth in explosive run rate and 10th in yards after contact last season (per Fantasy Points Data).
• CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL): Lamb finally did it. He DID IT! He finished as the WR1 in fantasy points per game while going on an absolute heater to close the season. Lamb surpassed 100 receiving yards in seven of his final 12 games, including a monstrous 227 receiving yard performance in Week 17. Last year, among 81 qualifying receivers, he ranked fourth in target share (29.2%), fifth in yards per route run (2.90), and eighth in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). There’s nothing to stop him from challenging for the WR1 crown again in 2024, with Dallas running it back with almost the same cast of skilled characters. Lamb should eat.

Assuming Tee Higgins is on the roster all year in CIN (and isn’t traded…)

I think we get a TON of Ja’Marr Chase in the slot in 2024.

Chase last year from the slot: (per PFF)

15th in YAC/rec
7th in YPRR
6th in MTF

Chase’s speed vs LBs & physicality vs nickels…

Game. Over. pic.twitter.com/AXQDq4fvED

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 19, 2024

• Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN): Chase’s 2023 season was ruined by injury both with his quarterback (Joe Burrow) and his late-season shoulder sprain. In Weeks 1-4, while Burrow was looking like a shadow of his former self, Chase was still the WR23, drawing a 27.0% target share, a 34.6% air-yard share, and a 36.2% first-read share while producing 1.81 yards per route run (YPRR) and 0.102 first downs per route run (FD/RR). In Weeks 5-10, when Burrow was back to dealing, Chase was the WR4 in fantasy, commanding a 28.4% target share, a 43.1% air-yard share, and a 34.5% first read share while churning out a whopping 2.69 YPRR and 0.145 FD/RR. Chase should be viewed as a consensus top-four wide receiver and a top-three pick in fantasy.

Mid-Round Players to Target

• Breece Hall (RB – NYJ): Despite recuperating from an extensive knee injury, it didn’t derail Hall in his second season. He finished the season as the RB6 in fantasy points per game with 299 touches and 1,585 total yards. Hall was 12th in opportunity share and second in weighted opportunities, and in Weeks 5-18, he averaged 20.2 touches and 102.5 total yards. A huge part of his value last season came from his pass game usage, as he led all running backs in targets, receiving yards, and receptions. While some of this was part of the fallout of Zach Wilson at the helm, Hall should remain a focal point for the passing attack in 2024. He was a baller as a receiver last season, ranking third in yards per route run and fourth in expected fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Hall is a top-five fantasy running back in all formats.
• Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL): The Arthur Smith experiment capsized what could have been an enormous rookie season for Robinson. He ranked ninth in snap share, third in targets, sixth in receptions, and fourth in receiving yards among running backs, but he finished as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. Robinson was the RB12 in expected fantasy points per game, but his opportunity share ranked 31st, and he was also 32nd in red zone touches with Smith’s insistence on utilizing Tyler Allgeier. If Robinson receives the bulk of the high-leverage touches under the new Falcons regime, he should crush in 2024. Last year, he ranked 23rd in explosive run rate, 17th in yards after contact per attempt, and 25th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Robinson is a locked-in RB1 for 2024.
• Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN): Despite dealing with injuries and bad quarterback play for part of the season, Jefferson finished as the WR5 in fantasy points per game. If you exclude Week 14, in which he played only 18% of the snaps, he was the WR4 in fantasy points per game. Even after Week 14, when he was suffering through the quarterback roulette wheel, Jefferson still churned out 22.1 fantasy points per game while drawing a 30.1% target share, manufacturing 3.03 YPRR, and blazing 0.134 FD/RR (ninth-best, per Fantasy Points Data). Jefferson is quarterback-proof, so it doesn’t matter to me whether Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy is under center this season. Jefferson has proven he can still be a top-five fantasy wideout with putrid passers. Jefferson could still have WR1 overall upside if Darnold and McCarthy outperform expectations.

Late-Round Players to Target

• A.J. Brown (WR – PHI): Brown has cemented his status as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL after he arrived in Philly with back-to-back WR8 finishes in fantasy points per game. The Eagles’ offense went off the rails last year with pitiful play calling, but with Kellen Moore in town, that hopefully gets rectified. There’s no reason Brown can produce top-ten numbers at the wide receiver position again in 2024 with top-three status in his range of outcomes. Brown remains in the prime of his career after ranking eighth in yards per route run and seventh in first downs per route run last season (per Fantasy Points Data).
• Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ): Assuming Wilson stays healthy in 2024 (which I do), his ascension into the WR1 ranks is a foregone conclusion. Last year, he had no problem drawing the volume that will help him be a top 12 option, ranking ninth in target share (27.1%), first in air-yard share (45.8%), and fifth in first-read share (36.8%). The problem was obvious last year when there was no Aaron Rodgers. The quarterback play was abysmal. Last season, the Jets ranked 30th in adjusted completion rate and 27th in catchable target rate. With Rodgers back in the huddle, Wilson is an easy WR1 with top-five upside.

When someone asks me who is…

“The Next Puka Nacua” pic.twitter.com/I04K8Fj7KU

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 17, 2024

• Puka Nacua (WR – LAR): Everyone HURRY! Get it. Grab it. Got it? Good. Pop the tops on those Puka Juice 40s; it’s time to CHUG! Nacua had a rookie season for the ages, finishing as the WR6 in fantasy points per game. He set rookie records for receptions and receiving yards. Even after Cooper Kupp returned, he led the duo in target share (25.4%), air-yard share (32.7%), YPRR (2.61, and fantasy points per game (WR12). Nacua could access another level in his sophomore campaign if Matthew Stafford stays healthy and Kupp’s powers diminish just a tiny bit more. Nacua could finish as a top-three option at the position this season if everything breaks his way.
• Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND): It was a weird year for Jonathan Taylor all around. From contract disputes to injuries, we rarely got to see Taylor fully ramped up and healthy in 2023. Entering his age-25 season, Taylor remains firmly in the prime of his career. In Weeks 7-18, he handled 21 touches per game, churning out 99.4 total yards per game. While many of his efficiency metrics were depressed last season, Taylor still ranked 13th in yards after contact per attempt, which tells me all I need to know. He’s still one of the best backs in the league and should remain a locked-in RB1 after finishing last season as the RB12 in fantasy points per game. A rushing attack fueled by Taylor and Anthony Richardson should be a nightmare for defensive coordinators this season.

Approach to Round 2

Round 2, in many instances, boils down to drafting your favorite running back or wide receiver that falls to you. This round is a mish-mash of volume options and upside.

Early-Round Players to Target

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET): Every nerd who said the Lions were foolish for selecting Gibbs in the first round has a tiny bit of egg on their face. Gibbs finished the season as the RB8 in fantasy points per game and fantasy points per opportunity. He was a tackle-breaking blur last season, ranking 18th in yards after contact per attempt and 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). After David Montgomery returned from injury, Gibbs averaged 14.1 touches and 73.1 total yards per game. Montgomery isn’t going anywhere, but that doesn’t mean Gibbs can’t be a top-shelf RB1 again in 2024.
• Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI): Harrison Jr.’s prospect profile speaks for itself. Over the last two years of college, he ranked fifth and seventh in YPRR and third and sixth in PFF receiving grade. He has the size and overall skillset to command alpha-level volume from the jump, and he’ll have that opportunity in Arizona. Yes, he will have to contend with Trey McBride for the weekly team lead in targets, but after McBride, things get sparse quickly. Arizona still has Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson and added Zay Jones this offseason, but none of those players have proven they can consistently push for a 20% target share in the NFL. Harrison’s draft stock is spicy, but he deserves it. Last year, Arizona tossed the rock 555 times; if Harrison can command a 25% target share (which is possible), he would be tied for 13th in raw target volume among wide receivers last year. Harrison could rank top 12 in targets among wideouts in his rookie season.

Mid-Round Players to Target

• Kyren Williams (RB – LAR): Williams was a revelation in 2023 as he quickly kicked Cam Akers to the curb, taking over the starting job in Week 2. Williams was the RB2 in fantasy points per game, ranking fourth in red zone touches, first in snap share, and fourth in opportunity share. Among 68 qualifying backs, he ranked 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 27th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Despite his smaller frame, Sean McVay had no issues leaning on Williams as his bellcow. In Weeks 2-17, he averaged 22.3 touches and 117.8 total yards playing at least 72% of the snaps in ten of 11 games played. The only knock on Williams’ usage last season was his pass-game role. Despite entering the NFL as a ballyhooed passing down back, Williams only ranked 18th in target share and 58th in yards per route run (among 60 qualifying backs). Even with the addition of Blake Corum to the roster, this should remain Williams’ backfield. He should remain a strong RB1 in 2024.
• Chris Olave (WR – NO): Did Olave match last year’s hype with his production? No. Did he woefully fail, and we should be worried about him in 2024? NOPE. Olave displayed growth with new career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game (14.5, WR19). Last year, among 81 qualifying receivers, Olave ranked 24th in YPRR and 16th in FD/RR. Olave had to deal with the ups and downs of Derek Carr last year, which smoothed out toward the end of the season with the Saints changing up the complexion of the passing offense, which should continue in 2024. Carr last year was tied to two outcomes. It was either wind up and chuck it deep or check it down, as Carr ranked eighth in deep attempts while also having the sixth-highest check-down rate. In Weeks 1-12, New Orleans had the fifth-highest aDOT while ranking 14th in catchable target rate with the 16th-highest off-target rate. In Weeks 13-18, the Saints changed it up as their aDOT was the 11th-lowest, and the offense ranked first in catchable target rate with the lowest off-target rate. With Klint Kubiak now the offensive coordinator, we should expect this lower aDOT model to continue with more motion and YAC opportunities opening up for Olave. The needle is pointing up for 2024.

Late-Round Players to Target

Some dudes are just built different.

Derrick Henry ???? is one of them.

Last season among 68 qualifying backs
(per @FantasyPtsData)

9th in explosive run rate
11th in yards after contact per attempt

Over the last two years Henry has also proven his is an underrated receiving… pic.twitter.com/TNrzGQWqyq

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 12, 2024

• Derrick Henry (RB – BAL): Some players are simply built differently. Henry has and remains one of those guys. Last year, at age 29, he ranked first in rushing attempts and second in rushing yards while showing little drop-off in his efficiency metrics. Last season, among 68 qualifying backs, Henry ranked ninth in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). While he will cross the dreaded age 30 threshold this year, it’s tough to project a drop-off for Henry and any reasons that he can’t continue to chug along as an RB1., especially when Henry has proven over the last two seasons that his pass game utility should increase despite his advancing age. Over the last two years, Henry has ranked 11th and 14th in TPRR and seventh and first in YPRR among backs. The big fellow isn’t slowing down. Continue to believe in the King in 2024 as the Ravens’ workhorse back.

• Drake London (WR – ATL): Arthur Smith is gone. It’s time for London to fly. His upside this season is massive in what should be a revamped offensive approach with Kirk Cousins under center and Zac Robinson calling plays. Last year, London’s numbers were passable but not amazing, as quarterback play held him in check. The Falcons’ quarterbacks posted the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate and the third-lowest catchable target rate. London still posted 1.98 YPRR (32nd) while ranking 27th in FD/RR and top 25 in first read share (20th) and target share (25th). After reexamining his 2023 film, I do not doubt that the same player who posted monster numbers as a rookie is still here. London realizes his massive potential this year. Enjoy the breakout.
• De’Von Achane (RB – MIA): Achane was part of the new wave of explosive young rushers that hit the scene last season. He finished as the RB5 in fantasy points per game. In the eight games he played at least 41% of the snaps, Achane averaged 14.2 touches and 113.8 total yards. Any fantasy gamer who falls in love with efficiency stats will love Achane. He was so damn good last year, ranking first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If he can overtake Raheem Mostert (and hold off Jaylen Wright) as the team’s primary goal-line rusher, Achane could finish as a top-three back in 2024.
• Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC): Pacheco settled in a strong RB2 last season (RB14), but he could have even more upside in 2024 if the team doesn’t retain Jerick McKinnon. In the four games he played without McKinnon active, Pachecho averaged 20.2 touches and 100.7 total yards. He was Kansas City’s workhorse, as he played at least 70% of the snaps in three of those four games. The second-year back rewarded their faith in him as he was 12th in explosive run rate and 26th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 48 qualifying backs, he also ranked 28th in yards per route run. Pacheco had plenty of high-leverage usage last season, ranking seventh in red zone touches and third on Kansas City in red zone targets. He’s a solid RB2 who could easily run hot with touchdowns and climb into the RB1 category in 2024.

Approach to Round 3

In Round 3, we enter the premium tight-end conversation. Pick your flavor of pay-up tight end that you think will finish TE1 overall this year. There are other options later in my article that I think also have this upside, so if you want to wait at the position, I get it. I love the wide receiver options in this round that could step into WR1 territory.

Early-Round Players to Target

• Sam LaPorta (TE – DET): Sammy Ballgame had a rookie season for the ages. Last year, he logged the most PPR points and PPR points per game, the third-most receiving yards, and the most receiving touchdowns (tied) for a rookie tight end since 1966. He finished as the TE3 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in target share and YPRR, 10th in first read share, and third in FD/RR. Ballgame is in play to finish as the TE1 in 2024 and is worth paying up for in drafts.
• Travis Kelce (TE – KC): Kelce had a “down season” by his lofty standards, but it was still a strong showing as he remained the TE1 in fantasy points per game. Kelce maintained electric marks in efficiency third in YPRR and second in FD/RR, ranking third in target share (21.2%) and second in first-read share (25.8%, per Fantasy Points Data). Kelce isn’t washed and remains Patrick Mahomes‘ WR1.

Mid-Round Players to Target

• Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF): Aiyuk was fantastic last season as the WR16 in fantasy, with career highs in yards per reception and receiving yards. He also crushed in deeper efficiency metrics, ranking third in YPRR and second in FD/RR. Aiyuk is a player where you’re betting on talent, and the complexion of the 49ers’ offense changes to an extent depending on where you’re drafting him. I don’t want him to be my WR1 on teams, but as my WR2, I’m comfortable taking the swing. The worries with his profile are easy to see, starting with volume. As good as Aiyuk was last year, he still only ranked 30th in raw target volume with an astounding 105 targets. He also ranked only 44th in red zone targets and was the WR31 in expected fantasy points per game. There’s risk here, but as Aiyuk displayed last year, there can be reward as well.
• Nico Collins (WR – HOU): Yes, Houston’s target tree has another branch that didn’t exist last year (Stefon Diggs). Is that worrisome for Collins? Sure, but this is a bet on talent. Drawing volume is a reflection of the talent that Collins has in spades. I’m not willing to back off drafting him and Tank Dell with the arrival of a veteran wide receiver that widely sunk fantasy teams down the stretch last year. In 2023, Collins ranked 12th in targets per route run, second in YPRR, seventh in receiving yards per game, and fifth in FD/RR. Everything in his profile suggests he is an alpha-level talent in the prime of his career, tied to one of the best young quarterbacks in the game.

Late-Round Players to Target

• Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA): Waddle had the worst season of his short career last year, finishing as the WR21 in fantasy. His high-leverage usage dried up as Tyreek Hill gobbled it all up. Waddle was outside the top 50 wide receivers in the NFL in deep targets (54th) and red zone looks (56th). Waddle was the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game. While all of those metrics don’t paint a pretty picture, Waddle is still one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, and this remains a consolidated passing attack that will run through Hill and Waddle. Waddle ranked fifth in yards per route run and sixth in first downs per route run last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Bet on supremely talented players to bounce back. Always.
• Michael Pittman (WR – IND): Pittman has proven to be one of the safest picks in fantasy drafts over the last three years, with WR14, WR21, and WR22 finishes. Despite catching passes from Gardner Minshew for most of the year, Pittman finished with his usual efficiency ranking 23rd in YPRR and 24th in FD/RR while gobbling up the volume (ninth in targets, fourth in target share). The Colts will remain a middling neutral pass rate team this year while pushing the pace envelope. Pittman should finish with another solid WR2 season, but he could offer more upside if he can ever break out with even reasonable touchdown numbers. Pittman hasn’t had more than six receiving touchdowns over the last three years. He only spiked it four times last season despite ranking ninth in red zone targets. Pittman has a WR1 season in him, and I won’t bet against him unleashing it in 2024.

Fantasy Football Draft Rankings

Check out the consensus 2024 fantasy football draft rankings from our experts.