Tight End Targets: Luke Musgrave, Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry (Fantasy Football)

Let’s get polite with the following names. Here are tight ends with upside in 2024 fantasy football drafts.

TE2s With Top-5 Potential

Remember MTV’s The Real World? “Find out what happens when people stop being polite and start being real.” Well, let’s stop being polite and start being real for a minute. Tight end is the position with the biggest drop-off after the elites. There’s the top 2% and then there’s the rest of us who pay taxes and scrounge up what we can for our 401k. Oops, wrong 2%, but you get the point.

Last season, we saw a surprise TE1 in Sam LaPorta, while Evan Engram was somewhat of a revelation and David Njoku and Trey McBride were knocking on the door of top-five seasons. That, however, is unusual. For example, in 2022, TE1 Travis Kelce more than doubled the point total of the season’s TE6, Tyler Higbee, 316.3 to 152.

Since we aren’t being polite, don’t expect any of these players to finish as top-five options because it probably isn’t happening. And since we are being real, these players all have the potential to outkick their current average draft position (ADP) by a long shot, regardless of if they finish top-five, top-six, top-seven, you name it. It’s also worth mentioning that players like Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, Jake Ferguson, David Njoku and Brock Bowers are all being drafted as TE1s, so they don’t qualify.

Luke Musgrave (TE – GB)

Until a lacerated kidney took him out in Week 10, Luke Musgrave was off to a solid start in his rookie campaign. Musgrave’s absence opened the door for Tucker Kraft to make an impact, and the fellow rookie made a name for himself during those weeks. Their stat sheets mirrored one another at the end of the season with Musgrave posting 352 yards and a touchdown on 34 grabs and Kraft hauling in 31 passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns. Entering their second season, both are expected to be involved as part of a deep Packers receiving group.

Kraft held his own last season and deserves credit for his efficiency, but Musgrave was a superior prospect and proved to be a better target downfield. Although Kraft’s efficiency led to the sixth-best fantasy points per target mark, his average depth of target (aDOT) was 37th at just 3.9. Musgrave finished 11th in deep targets (six), aDOT (7.5) and yards per target (7.7). His 98.5 Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade on deep targets last season was the fourth-best mark at the position. His PFF receiving grade of 91.1 between Weeks 18 and the Divisional Round, after returning from injury, led all tight ends.

The Packers have a long list of young pass-catchers, but there’s room for Musgrave to emerge with the club lacking a true pecking order. Head coach Matt LaFleur is one of the better play designers in the league and Jordan Love has proven to be a big-time player. The Packers are projected to be a top-10 scoring offense this season. I expect LeFleur and Love to make the most of Musgrave and his athleticism, particularly downfield.

Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT)

In his rookie season, Pat Freiermuth was the overall TE13 in PPR scoring and TE17 in points per game. Freiermuth took another step forward in year two, finishing as the TE7 overall and TE9 in points per game. In those two seasons, Freiermuth was one of the most efficient tight ends in the league, tallying just 79 targets in year one and 98 in year two. Last season, however, he was limited to 12 games due to a hamstring injury that lingered for much of the season.

More impactful to impeding Freiermuth’s success was the trainwreck we refer to as the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback situation. No one is anointing Russell Wilson as the savior, but he should provide the offense with a competent arm to deliver the football from point A to point B.

New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is often criticized for Kyle Pitts’ lack of success, but Smith has always utilized his tight ends dating back to Delanie Walker and Jonnu Smith in Tennessee. Although Wilson is not known for utilizing the middle of the field, there’s an expectation in Pittsburgh that the offense will look to do more of that this season, which obviously benefits Freiermuth.

Reports out of camp also suggest Freiermuth is looking like the Steelers’ WR2. I anticipate him to be heavily utilized in the red zone. Wilson is not the same quarterback he used to be, but he was one of the best quarterbacks inside the red zone last season, tossing 20 touchdowns to one interception. Double-digit touchdowns are well within Freiermuth’s reach this season. I expect his most productive season yet.

Hunter Henry (TE – NE)

Typically, this list is comprised of young players oozing with upside and ready to emerge as an offensive focal point, but don’t sleep on eight-year veteran Hunter Henry. The 29-year-old has consistently lived on the TE1/TE2 fringes but was often viewed as a mid-range TE1 in his days with the Chargers. Despite the offensive struggles in New England and sharing the room with Jonnu Smith and Mike Gesicki, Henry’s production has hardly dipped. In 2021, his first season with the Patriots, Henry finished as the TE9 in half-PPR and the TE11 in points per game (PPG). In 2022, Henry fell to TE21 before bouncing back in 2023 to a TE18 finish and TE15 PPG standing.

Fast forward to the present day and it’s easy to see the Patriots lack established weapons on offense. DeMario Douglas led the team last season with 561 receiving yards while Henry was next in line, tallying 419. The team added Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker in the draft and K.J. Osborn via free agency, but it’s fair to view Henry as the most established and reliable weapon in the passing game. The quarterback situation is murky, but we have an extremely talented rookie in Drake Maye who will love Henry as a security blanket, or Jacoby Brissett, who helped aid David Njoku to the TE7 in Weeks 1-12 when he was under center for the Browns in 2022.

Coincidentally, Brissett and Njoku were working with Alex Van Pelt as the Browns’ offensive coordinator at the time, who joined the Patriots for his first season in the same role. The team brought in Austin Hooper and drafted Jaheim Bell, but neither is expected to play a major role in the offense, leaving the door open for Henry to walk into his best season yet.

Henry, Gesicki and Pharaoh Brown combined for 121 targets last year. While we can’t expect all tight end targets to consolidate through Henry, I expect to see an uptick in his target share with less competition. He tallied 50% of the tight end targets last season in 14 games played. If the team were to target the room 121 times once again and Henry’s tight end target share jumped to 65%, we’d be looking at 79 targets on the season. For context, that would be the second-most of his career.

Henry’s aDOT of 9.4 last season was third among tight ends with 30+ targets, showcasing his ability to win downfield. That, and his consistent red-zone success, highlight his ability to have a career year this season. Henry caught five of his six red-zone targets last season, converting them into five touchdowns. The only other tight ends to score five or more touchdowns from the red zone saw anywhere from 13-24 targets in the red area. If his target share grows, he stays healthy and he continues his red-zone dominance, we could be in for a big year from Henry.

NFL Sam LaPorta Evan Engram David Njoku Trey McBride Travis Kelce Tyler Higbee Dalton Kincaid Kyle Pitts Jake Ferguson Brock Bowers Luke Musgrave Tucker Kraft Jordan Love Pat Freiermuth Russell Wilson Jonnu Smith Hunter Henry Mike Gesicki DeMario Douglas Ja’Lynn Polk Javon Baker K.J. Osborn Drake Maye Jacoby Brissett Austin Hooper Jaheim Bell Pharaoh Brown