It can be extremely tempting to select the high-risk, high-reward players in drafts. The excitement of the upcoming NFL season often makes us too optimistic about the outlook of certain players. As enticing as the likes of De’Von Achane, Malik Nabers and Drake London are, it’s important to acknowledge the undeniable risks they carry.
After taking a chance on players like these, it’s important to mitigate the inherent risk by selecting safer options in the subsequent rounds. Every fantasy championship is won by teams that effectively blend high-upside and high-floor players.
The following list contains players whose floors are higher than most. Assuming health, these players have the safest path to consistent fantasy production.
High-Floor Fantasy Football Players
Amari Cooper (WR — CLE)
Amari Cooper has been a pillar of consistency ever since he put on a Cleveland Browns jersey. He’s eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons and continues to perform as one of the league’s best at the position. At 30 years old, Cooper is yet to show any signs of regression. He’s one of the safer bets to make at this juncture.
By all accounts, Amari Cooper had one of his best seasons yet in 2023. He finished the season having averaged 17.4 yards per reception and 2.31 yards per route run. These tallies, along with his 15 contested catches, were all career highs. He earned an impressive 80.1 Pro Football Focus (PFF) Receiving Grade for his efforts.
Cooper’s main target competitors are David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy. While Njoku is a dynamic playmaker, he’s struggled to consistently demand targets at a high rate. The TE has earned more than 100 targets only once across his seven-year career. On the other hand, Jerry Jeudy has yet to display the talent that made him a first-round pick in 2020. Across his four-year career, he’s managed to earn a PFF Receiving Grade above 71.0 only once. It’s highly unlikely that the former Alabama standout will draw targets away from Cooper.
Many will view QB Deshaun Watson as a hindrance to Cooper’s fantasy value. Admittedly, it’s been a disastrous tenure for Watson thus far in Cleveland. Nevertheless, Cooper’s production has been impressive with Watson under center. Cooper has averaged 4.25 receptions and 72.5 receiving yards in games started by Watson. This put him on a 17-game pace of 72.25 receptions and 1,232.5 receiving yards.
The Cleveland Browns shifted towards a pass-heavy game plan in 2023. Their 37.2 pass attempts per game ranked fourth highest among NFL offenses. Once superstar RB Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending injury, the team abandoned the run game almost entirely. As Chubb continues to rehab his knee, he’s unlikely to return to full strength in the early portion of the season. Expect the Browns to throw at a high rate once more in 2024, and Amari Cooper stands to benefit the most.
Najee Harris (RB — PIT)
Najee Harris may lack the breakaway speed and explosive athleticism that some managers look for in their fantasy RBs. What he does offer is steady and reliable production. As the Steelers’ workhorse RB, he’s surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in every season since 2021.
Najee Harris doesn’t profile as a home-run-hitting RB. His PFF breakaway percentage of 18.8% is indicative of this. He is nonetheless an effective between-the-tackles runner who the Steelers rely upon heavily. Among 49 RBs with at least 100 carries in 2023, Harris ranked eighth in missed tackles forced, 15th in yards after contact per attempt and 14th in elusive rating (per PFF).
The arrival of Arthur Smith as the Steelers’ offensive coordinator all but confirms this team’s desire to run the ball at an incredibly high rate. Smith’s hiring aligns well with the Steelers’ identity of tough, hard-nosed football. This bodes well for Harris, whose aggressive play style fits perfectly within the scheme. Fantasy managers should expect him to be given plenty of carries this season.
Many Najee Harris doubters will point to Jaylen Warren‘s role in the backfield as a potential concern. Warren has indeed been an effective change-of-pace back over the past couple of seasons. Regardless, Harris has historically been awarded the more valuable carries in this backfield. He had six more carries from inside the five-yard than Warren line in 2023. This significant red-zone usage has been a mainstay across Harris’ career, as he’s accumulated 22 rushing touchdowns in three seasons.
It’s also important to note that Warren suffered a hamstring injury during the team’s most recent preseason game. If Warren were to miss time with this ailment, Najee would be in line to earn an even greater share of the carries in this backfield.
Mike Evans (WR — TB)
It seems that every off-season brings new doubts about Mike Evans’ productivity. Whether it’s poor QB play, target competition, or age and attrition, various narratives have emerged to undermine Evans’ fantasy value over the years. He continued to prove these narratives wrong in 2023 as he compiled 1,000 yards for the 10th consecutive season.
At 31 years old, Evans has yet to show any signs of a decline in efficiency. Among WRs with at least 80 targets, he ranked first in receiving touchdowns, second in contested catches and sixth in yards per reception. His PFF receiving grade of 83.2 was his highest tally since 2019.
What makes the veteran WR so reliable is his unquestionable role in this offense. Evans has operated as the Buccaneers’ primary deep threat for the entirety of his career. The team’s offense is dependent on him making big plays down the sideline and in the red zone. He’s led the team in receiving touchdowns for four consecutive years.
The career resurgence of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay provides some much-needed stability for Evans and this Buccaneers offense. The former first-overall pick enjoyed arguably the best season of his career in 2023. He posted career highs in completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns. He and Mike Evans have an undeniable connection that will continue to be fruitful in 2024.
Other than Chris Godwin, there are no WRs on this depth chart who pose realistic threats to Evans’ volume. While interesting prospects, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer are both unproven in the NFL. Godwin’s targets come closer to the line of scrimmage (he has a career aDOT of 9.5 yards per PFF) and will not interfere with Evans’ looks further downfield.
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