Rookies have been excellent bets to make in fantasy football. For one, rookie RBs tend to enter the league at the peak of their powers. They step into prominent roles from the start of their career. On the other hand, WRs have a slightly steeper learning curve, usually requiring 6-9 weeks of acclimating to the NFL. Nevertheless, the elite WR prospects have typically delivered excellent value in the late stages of their rookie years.

Rookies have provided great returns on investment as they’ve historically been inexpensive to acquire in drafts. However, the market seems to have adjusted to this trend and these players are now moving further up draft boards. Rookies are being selected earlier than ever and, with that, the risk may sometimes outweigh the potential reward.

It’s important to recall that as exciting as rookies can be, there will always be mishaps. For every Ja’Marr Chase rookie year, there is a Quentin Johnston rookie year. Below are some rookies who should be avoided in fantasy football drafts this upcoming season.

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Fantasy Football Rookies to Avoid

Keon Coleman (WR – BUF)

The Bills drafted Keon Coleman 33rd overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. On the surface, Coleman offers a compelling combination of draft capital and potential volume. This is a Bills offense that let go of its two primary pass-catchers in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Many believe Coleman will be inheriting much of the fantasy production left behind by these two players.

That said, Coleman’s statistical profile leaves much to be desired. His final season at Florida State was wildly disappointing. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ranked 109th in receiving grade and 144th in yards per route run among FBS WRs with at least 50 targets. Coleman never managed to eclipse a PFF receiving grade of 76.0 across his collegiate career.

While the current Bills pass-catching corps lacks household names, there are several intriguing players to consider. Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel are all more likely to see consistent work in this offense. For one, Kincaid is an emerging star at the TE position. His catch rate of 81.1% was the third-highest amongst TEs with at least 50 targets. Khalil Shakir also came into his own in the latter half of the 2023 season. He averaged 1.81 yards per route run and 7.3 yards after the catch per reception, per PFF. Lastly, Curtis Samuel will be reunited with offensive coordinator Joe Brady this upcoming season. He enjoyed some of his best football with Brady, most notably the 2020 season during which he eclipsed 1,000 scrimmage yards with the Panthers.

Joe Brady’s appointment is another key factor to consider. He was named interim OC after a tumultuous start for the offensive unit in 2023. Under Brady’s system, the team adopted a more run-heavy offensive approach. This resulted in a decrease in passing volume. Before his appointment, Josh Allen attempted an average of 35 pass attempts per game. This dropped to 32.7 attempts per game in the following weeks. Coleman will inevitably suffer from this decrease in overall passing volume.

Bucky Irving (RB – TB)

Bucky Irving is an undersized back who’s likely to struggle as a between-the-tackles runner in the NFL. Much of his production came as a pass-catcher or on designed runs in space. He profiles very similarly to Rachaad White who, much to the dismay of Irving, is the unquestioned No.1 RB in the Buccaneers’ offense.

There’s no doubt Irving enjoyed a productive collegiate career. During his final season at Oregon, he put together a rushing grade of 91.1 and averaged 3.99 yards after contact per carry. However, these numbers do not tell the full story for Irving. Per PFF, an astounding 38.8% of his rushing yardage came from breakaway runs. This shows the extent to which Irving was dependent on making explosive plays in space. Against more stringent and disciplined NFL defenses, these opportunities won’t come nearly as often.

Another concern is Irving’s lack of athleticism. His PlayerProfiler athleticism score of 91.2 ranked 21st among 21 qualifying players in this RB class. At 5-foot-9 and 192 pounds, this lack of athleticism will be detrimental to Irving’s future as an NFL RB.

Irving’s calling card has always been his pass-catching prowess. In this regard, he was one of the nation’s best in 2023. His 47 receptions and 361 receiving yards ranked second and seventh in the FBS, respectively. However, the pass-catching role in the Bucs’ RB room is Rachaad White’s to lose. The latter had the fourth-most receptions and the third-most receiving yards at the position in 2023. With this in mind, there’s simply no scenario in which Irving earns a large enough role to have stand-alone fantasy value in 2024.

Irving’s value as an insurance option for White managers is also being slightly overblown. In the event of an injury to White, it’s highly unlikely the Bucs allow Irving to inherit the workhorse role. Given his small stature, it will be in the team’s best interest to employ more of an RB-by-committee approach. Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker are both likely to garner touches in this scenario.

Braelon Allen (RB – NYJ)

Braelon Allen is another rookie who, like Bucky Irving, figures to be the primary “hand-cuff” option if the starter were to get injured. Admittedly, Breece Hall has struggled to stay healthy throughout his young career. At any rate, the starting RB in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense is an enticing fantasy asset.

That said, Allen is an underwhelming prospect. Among FBS RBs with at least 80 carries, Allen ranked 107th in run grade and 52nd in elusive rating in 2023, per PFF. It’s fair to question whether he has the talent to earn the established RB2 role in this offense. To do so, he’ll have to beat out the likes of Isaiah Davis and Israel Abanikanda.

The Jets also invested fifth-round draft capital in former South Dakota State Jackrabbit Isaiah Davis. Davis is coming off a stellar season where he led all FCS RBs in run grade, missed tackles forced and explosive runs, per PFF. According to PlayerProfiler, his athletic score of 102.3 ranked eighth among 21 RBs in this draft class. Davis poses a true threat to Allen’s status as the primary backup to Breece Hall.

On the other hand, Abanikanda is coming off an uninspiring rookie season where he struggled to make his mark on this Jets offense. That said, it’d be unwise to write off the former Pittsburgh standout this early in his career. He’ll be given every opportunity to earn a secondary role in this offense during training camp.

Allen is currently being selected in the same range as Dameon Pierce and Khalil Herbert. These are both players who, while currently the RB2 on their respective depth charts, have much clearer paths to contingent upside. For this reason, Allen is worth avoiding in drafts.

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