Statistically speaking, winning a fantasy football championship is unlikely. Whether you’re in a 10-, 12- or 14-team league, the odds are stacked against you. For this reason, it’s important to embrace a certain level of risk in drafts. After all, there’s little difference between finishing fifth or dead last.
The players that come with the most risk often carry the most upside. They are players who, despite their undeniable talent, have an extremely wide range of outcomes. Fantasy managers must weigh these risk factors against their cost in drafts.
The following list highlights some of the riskiest players in fantasy football. While they possess league-winning potential, they can also be detrimental draft selections based on their current average draft position (ADP).
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
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Riskiest Fantasy Football Players to Draft
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
De’Von Achane is the poster boy of the high-risk, high-reward approach in 2024 fantasy football. He’s quickly emerged as one of the most polarizing players in drafts. While he possesses special RB1 upside, the downside is perhaps uglier than most are willing to accept.
Achane’s potential for fantasy greatness is undeniable. Simply put, the sophomore RB is a great player in a great offense. Based on his efficiency metrics in 2023, “great” may be an understatement. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he led all RBs with at least 40 carries in run grade, yards after contact per attempt and elusive rating.
What was most impressive about Achane’s absurd production was that it came on a limited number of carries. With a full bill of health and an additional year of experience, the expectation is that Achane can see an increase in the 102 carries he earned in 2023.
This Miami Dolphins offense remains one of the most explosive units in the NFL. It boasts explosive playmakers all around the field, including the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert. Head coach Mike McDaniel has put together an effective scheme, constantly putting these weapons in advantageous situations. Per PFF, the Dolphins ranked third in rushing grade and first in passing grade in 2023.
That being said, there are several avenues through which Achane may fail to deliver on this promise. Achane’s volume remains uncertain due to Raheem Mostert’s presence in this backfield. The latter enjoyed the best season of his career in 2023. Among qualifying RBs, he ranked second in run grade, first in touchdowns and sixth in missed tackles forced, per PFF. McDaniel will continue to feature Mostert heavily if these efficiencies persist in 2024. The team also invested fourth-round draft capital on highly-touted RB prospect Jaylen Wright. The former Tennesee Volunteer earned an impressive 91.2 PFF run grade in his final collegiate season. With other serviceable options in this backfield, Achane may not see the increase in volume fantasy managers are banking on.
The other risk factor to consider is injury. Achane is listed at 5-foot-8 and 188 pounds. Historically speaking, running backs of this size haven’t been able to withstand a heavy workload. Achane struggled to stay on the field during his rookie season, as he battled knee and toe injuries that caused him to miss a total of six games. As a smaller back, his injury risk is higher than most.
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
Like Achane, the risk surrounding Malik Nabers’ fantasy outlook has nothing to do with the player’s talent. Throughout an incredibly productive 2023 season, Nabers proved to be one of the best WR prospects the NFL has ever seen. He led all FBS WRs in receiving yards and earned the highest PFF receiving grade. His 14 receiving touchdowns were second only to Brian Thomas Jr.
Thus far, his talents have translated to the NFL field. Reports from training camp suggest Nabers quickly emerged as the Giants’ alpha WR. He made several impressive plays in the team’s most recent preseason game.
The acrobatic catches from Malik Nabers are going to be so fun to watch..
Nabers is going to be unreal in his rookie season ????
pic.twitter.com/vrSZu0nTHW— Amateur Sports Takes (@AmateurFBTakes) August 18, 2024
Nabers’ downside is tied to the Giants’ overall struggles as an offensive unit. The team ranked 31st in PFF offensive grade in 2023, largely due to the reliance on second and third-string QBs for the majority of the season. With starter Daniel Jones back in the fold, there are still plenty of question marks surrounding this unit.
Jones is yet to prove he’s a serviceable starting QB in the NFL. The 2023 season was comfortably Jones’ worst, as he set career lows in PFF passing grade and NFL passer rating. He’ll need to make great strides as a passer for Nabers to return value at his current ADP as the WR24.
Given the Giants’ group of weapons outside of Nabers, this will certainly be an uphill battle for Jones. The likes of Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt and Wan’Dale Robinson will serve as complementary pieces in this WR room. None of these players have eclipsed 800 receiving yards at any point during their respective careers. Opposing defenses will be able to key in on Nabers as the focal point of this offense. If they manage to effectively limit the rookie’s impact, the Giants offense may severely struggle to put drives together.
We’ve seen talented WRs struggle to overcome poor offensive ecosystems. Garrett Wilson and Terry McLaurin are prime examples of great pass-catchers whose fantasy production was capped by sub-par offenses. There’s a distinct possibility Nabers faces a similar situation in 2024.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
Jahmyr Gibbs is yet another ascending talent who, while being an incredibly enticing fantasy asset, carries a lot of risk. Gibbs emerged as an electric playmaker throughout his rookie season. Among 49 RBs with at least 100 carries, he ranked 13th in run grade, 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 11th in elusive rating, per PFF. He earned a Pro Bowl appearance for his efforts.
The Detroit offense, led by ingenious play-caller Ben Johnson, is among the league’s best. It ranked second in PFF offense grade and averaged 27.1 points per game in 2023. The offensive line, spearheaded by franchise cornerstones Penei Sewell and Frank Ragnow, consistently creates holes for its running backs. There’s no doubt Gibbs’ surrounding cast is favorable for his fantasy outlook.
Gibbs’ downside is entirely contingent on volume. Those who rostered Gibbs in 2023 grew increasingly frustrated with David Montgomery‘s featured role in this offense. The latter proved to be effective in early-down situations and at the goal line. With a PFF run grade of 83.6 and an average of 3.05 yards after contact per carry, it’s clear Montgomery earned his workload. At 27 years old, he remains at the peak of his powers and will continue to be a key part of Johnson’s system.
Gibbs’ lingering hamstring injury is also a cause for concern. While recent reports have been positive, it’s important to recall that hamstring issues historically have high re-injury rates. Gibbs is a smaller back (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) who is already more susceptible to injury than the average-sized RB. With hamstring issues persisting this late into the preseason, this risk is even greater.
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