Running Backs with RB3 average draft positions (ADPs) or worse are typically low-floor players. That’s why it’s worth it to swing for the fences. A late-round stud can change the course of your season. Below are four high-upside running backs you can draft late.
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RB3s with RB1 Potential
Rico Dowdle (RB – DAL)
Rico Dowdle enters his age-26 season with an opportunity to become the Cowboys’ lead running back. Injuries have unfortunately hampered Dowdle’s career since he fractured his leg at South Carolina University. He joined the Cowboys in 2020 as an undrafted free agent (UDFA). A hip injury landed him on injured reserve (IR) for the entire 2021 season. An ankle injury sidelined him for the majority of 2022.
He won the backup job last season and managed to stay healthy for 89 carries, 361 yards and two touchdowns. Tack on 17 receptions for 144 yards and two more touchdowns. He narrowly outperformed Tony Pollard in terms of efficiency (4.1 to 4.0 yards per carry), and he seemed to get more juice with added touches. In his three games with nine or more carries, he averaged 12.55 half-PPR fantasy points per game.
Dowdle has great size at 6-foot-0, 215 pounds. He runs with physicality and balance. He’s also decisive with plus vision and cuts sharply upfield when he recognizes a lane. He has the most juice in this current Dallas backfield. Ezekiel Elliot had zero 20+ yard rushes on 184 carries in 2023. Dowdle had two on fewer than half the carries. Dowdle also only had one fewer run of 10+ yards (seven). Elliot passed his prime a long time ago. He was one of the worst rushers in the league last season with -71 rush yards over expected, per Next Gen Stats.
Dowdle’s RB43 ADP presents little risk for a potentially significant payoff. The Cowboys averaged 500 rush attempts over the last two seasons, and they consistently involve running backs in the passing game. A nice portion of that should produce a starting caliber fantasy season for even an average running back. The biggest threats to Dowdle’s season are his injury history and a potential in-season trade for another running back.
Jaylen Wright (RB – MIA)
Jaylen Wright’s ADP currently sits at RB47, which tracks with other prized handcuffs like Ty Chandler and Zach Charbonnet. Barring injury, Wright won’t see the majority of touches in this Miami backfield. He should, however, factor somewhat into their plans after Miami traded a third-round pick to draft him. This might be my dynasty brain talking, but I’m willing to roster any Mike McDaniel running back.
Wright had a 26% explosive run rate in college. For reference, Christian McCaffrey’s rate was 16.2% last year. Wright flashed big play ability in his first preseason game against the Falcons, catching a screen and reversing the field for a chunk gain. Wright can be effective in a limited role, especially in this Miami offense that prioritizes speed. He ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the combine.
Wright also has the tools to excel in short-yardage situations. He’s currently the heaviest back on the team and runs with solid balance and strength. He could spell Raheem Mostert for some goal-line touches in 2024. The Dolphins scored 27 rushing touchdowns last year. While it’s safe to assume that number could diminish, there’s still plenty of opportunity in this high-scoring offense.
De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert have extensive injury histories. The team might also want to use Mostert more sparingly in his age-32 season. Achane was the most electric running back in the league last year, but his slight frame couldn’t hold up under a significant workload. He also lines up in the slot often, which would allow multiple running backs on the field. Wright figures to earn some run in 2024. At worst, he’s an insurance policy with more upside than Charbonnet, Chandler and similarly ranked handcuffs.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – LAC)
I won’t quit you, J.K. Dobbins. A breakout 2020 rookie season had everyone crowning Dobbins as the next great Baltimore running back. He took 134 attempts for 805 yards and nine touchdowns, leading the league with 6.0 yards per carry (YPC). Fast forward two years and two significant injuries later, and he’s RB41 and a Los Angeles Charger. Some things, however, don’t change. He once again shares a backfield with Gus Edwards in a Greg Roman offense. He’s also going from (John) Harbaugh to (Jim) Harbaugh.
Dobbins came back strong after a torn ACL, averaging 5.7 YPC before suffering a ruptured Achilles. Unfortunately, this injury has recently killed the careers of Marlon Mack, Tarik Cohen, Cam Akers and James Robinson. It didn’t work for all those people. People somehow deluded themselves into thinking it might, but… it might work for JK Dobbins.
While Dobbins has been injury-prone, he’s always looked like the same talented runner on the field. Betting on an Achilles is risky business, but his RB41 ADP mitigates this risk. He’ll have the opportunity to regain his form, as Harbaugh and Roman have a history of featuring the run game. The Chargers also just bolstered the trenches with first-rounder Joe Alt. Edwards sits atop the depth chart to enter the season. While he’s very effective in short-yardage situations, he doesn’t offer the same creativity we have come to expect from Dobbins. The split could become closer to 1A and 1B than Joe Hortiz’s bell-cow comment might suggest. Dobbins signed with the Chargers a month after he said this. People say things. Things change.
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
Najee Harris’ RB24 ADP sets him right on that RB2/RB3 line. After selecting three running backs with sub-RB40 ADPs, let’s discuss a pricier option. Harris had the worst fantasy season of his career last year as the RB20. He took 255 carries for 1,035 yards and eight touchdowns. A slow start limited his overall production, as he averaged 6.18 points through five weeks. He averaged a solid 11.78 points in the remaining 12 games, scoring all eight of his touchdowns in this span.
The Steelers’ offensive line was among the worst in the league, leaving Harris little daylight between the tackles. He had an average of 2.0 yards before contact, which tracks among the worst in the league. Inversely, his 2.1 yards after contact was tied for sixth-best in the league among running backs with 100+ carries. Harris often created his success in 2023. He broke 30 tackles and forced 53 missed tackles overall. While many knock Harris for his lack of explosive potential, he finished fourth in the league with eight 20+ yard carries.
Pittsburgh bolstered the offensive line with draft investments in the first, second and fourth rounds. They even drafted Roman Wilson, a wide receiver known for his blocking ability. Arthur Smith, the new OC, ran the ball 522 times last year as head coach of the Falcons. That ranked second in the league.
Jaylen Warren figures to earn a significant amount of carries in 2024. The volume should be enough to sustain two relevant running backs, similar to what we saw last year in Detroit. Five hundred and twenty carries in a season amount to 30 a game. That’s plenty for the one-two punch. Harris also figures to earn the majority of goal-line touches and should meet or exceed his 7.3 touchdown average. Warren’s preseason hamstring injury might also provide Harris with extra opportunity.
Conclusion
Swing for the fences. There’s nothing to lose this late in the draft. For more late-round running back targets, check out our breakout candidates article.
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