There’s nothing worse than drafting a player high and seeing them become a bust before your very eyes as the season unfolds. There’s an element of a sunk-cost fallacy, so admitting defeat can be difficult.
Fortunately, I’ll aim to prevent you from that weekly dilemma of what to do at the quarterback position. Fortunately, this is a prime position to wait a bit and pick up value later, so waiting to draft a quarterback is probably the ideal way to go.
Below, I’ll look at the quarterbacks inside the top 12 at the position. The cut-off is Jared Goff, who’s going No. 105 overall, but the two quarterbacks I’ll touch on are going inside the top 75.
Let’s check them out.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Quarterback Bust Candidates
(All stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus)
C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)
As a rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud finished with more than 4,100 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. He was the QB13 from Weeks 1 to 17 and was the QB11 in average points per game.
The team added wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell is back, but they also added Joe Mixon to the backfield. Mixon will command similar, if not more, carries than former Texans running back Devin Singletary, who had 216 carries.
These additions will help Stroud’s stock, but right now, he’s going as the QB5. It’s difficult to see how he goes from QB13 to QB5. He doesn’t offer a ton of rushing upside, so it’ll have to come from passing. If he finished with the exact stat line but had 5,000 passing yards instead, he would’ve been QB7.
Don’t get me wrong, Stroud will still be a strong fantasy quarterback option, but taking him 50th overall might be a tad too steep when you can take some key running backs before the position dries up or quarterbacks with rushing upside like Anthony Richardson.
Stroud will still be a top-10 quarterback, but top-five leaves little potential to exceed his average draft position (ADP).
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)
The addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. will certainly give Kyler Murray a new weapon to work with, but out of the top 12 quarterbacks in fantasy drafts, Murray is the one that gives me the most pause.
Across eight games, he had 44 carries (5.5 per game) for 244 yards and three scores. The offensive line is certainly still a bit shaky. The Cardinals also drafted Trey Benson to help fellow running back James Conner, which could mean fewer rushing opportunities for Murray.
As for the passing game, Murray will have Harrison Jr., tight end Trey McBride and the team will hope for another step forward from Michael Wilson.
Murray hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a game since Week 8 of 2022. He’s played 65 games in his career – only 13 have seen him throw for 300+ yards.
Murray’s passing has always been ok, but his fantasy value is based on his rushing. If his rushing takes a hit, the value begins to drop quickly.
Of the quarterbacks going in the top 12, Murray has the most volatility, but there’s also a world where he finally breaks 4,000 passing yards and has 100+ rush attempts.
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