Fantasy football players love to draft and roster the shiny new asset every season. Especially in a year like 2024 where there is so much hype around players like Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr., fantasy managers will reach for these kinds of players because of the great unknown. They could be league-winners right away but until they lace up for the first game it’s impossible to know.
Will all hyped players pay off their fantasy investment right away? Certainly not. While it can be disappointing to see players you drafted or traded for not live up to their potential in the short term, in future seasons it can eventually transition them into a unique category: Post-hype sleeper.
Post-hype sleepers are not sleepers in the traditional sense. These fantasy players might even be considered busts by normal standards. Post-hype sleepers were all the rage in seasons past but didn’t quite live up to their lofty expectations. The advantage for fantasy managers is that they typically experience a steep fall in average draft position (ADP) and can be found for minimal investment.
Here are four post-hype sleepers to keep on your draft boards before the 2024 fantasy football season.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Post-Hype Sleepers (2024 Fantasy Football)
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX)
It was just three short years ago that words like “generational” and phrases such as “best prospect since Andrew Luck” and “next great quarterback” were used for Trevor Lawrence when he was drafted number one overall out of Clemson in 2021. Fast forward three years and he has dealt with bad luck from receivers, interception problems in his rookie season and the Urban Meyer fiasco. Lawrence has not come close to living up to expectations.
Despite missing just one game in his three seasons as a starter, Lawrence does not have a season with more than 25 touchdown passes or 4,100 yards passing. Last year the stars were aligned for him with weapons like Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Travis Etienne and Zay Jones. However, Lawrence finished as just the QB13 in total points and QB17 in fantasy points per game (he was QB14 in 2022). Lawrence finished with four weeks over 20 fantasy points, but also seven weeks with 15 or fewer points. However, there are signs Lawrence was making significant progress but was hampered by bad luck in 2023.
Trevor Lawrence drops a dime but Christian Kirk couldn’t bring it in. Brutal. pic.twitter.com/iIEWI7TlD7
– Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) January 21, 2023
Lawrence was a top-12 quarterback in both accuracy rating and deep ball completion percentage last year. He was eighth in yards per attempt and had the fifth-most air yards in the league. The problem was that his receivers dropped 25 passes in 2023, fifth-most among any team. Lawrence was sneakily QB5 in fantasy points per game in Weeks 11-18 last year. His performance in the weeks leading into and in the playoffs helped anyone who was QB-needy. If he can sustain that level of success and get some positive regression on drops this could finally be a career year for Lawrence.
Josh Palmer (WR – LAC)
The same year Trevor Lawrence was drafted first overall, Josh Palmer was an early third-round pick out of Tennessee. He came with a serious pedigree as a 21-year-old out of the University of Tennessee. The Los Angeles Chargers thought at the time he would be the perfect long-term complement to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Those wide receivers are now gone and the Quentin Johnston project is just not working, so this is now the time for Palmer to step into the Chargers’ No. 1 WR role.
The 2023 season was an injury-riddled campaign for Palmer as he missed seven games with a knee sprain and a concussion. It caused his receptions, yards and scores to plummet. That is likely directly correlated to his fantasy football ADP (WR57, 151 overall in half-PPR formats), which basically means he is a free late-round pick in both leagues.
Josh Palmer ???????? pic.twitter.com/yRLM8rrnXD
– 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) August 4, 2023
But the Chargers need Palmer more than ever. Johnston has proven he is not ready. Stud rookie Ladd McConkey out of Georgia is dealing with an injury at camp. Yes, new head coach Jim Harbaugh has declared the Chargers are going to establish the run like it’s never been established before, but they can’t run every play. Palmer will be the top wideout on this team and his 18th-ranked yards per target from 2023 should help him easily pay off the investment managers get in the 14th round of drafts.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS)
The knock on Brian Robinson in his first two years in the league should have been more about the players around him and less about Robinson’s production. His 2023 was low-key excellent, and even with a time-share in place, Robinson was able to finish as the RB17. During his first two years in the league, Robinson had to contend with Antonio Gibson stealing some two-minute drills and passing downs. Now he has Austin Ekeler in that role plus the rushing threat of Jayden Daniels to worry about. Can Robinson break free of those potential shackles and look like the 1,600-yard, 16-touchdown back that was drafted out of Alabama? I’m betting on yes.
People forget Robinson’s NFL career started with him being shot in the leg. After missing the first four games, Robinson struggled but showed flashes in his rookie year. Last season, fully healthy except for a hamstring tweak that caused him to miss one game, Robinson proved he can be an efficient runner and an effective passing-game option. Robinson was 15th among all running backs in yards per touch and 14th in total yards created. There is also this misguided notion he is a zero in the passing game, but last year proved that’s simply not true.
Dear Fantasy Football players,
I think Brian Robinson Jr. is going to have a big season.
He does too.
BRob told me, “I’m for sure going to pop off…everybody else is going to pop off as well.”
You’re welcome. pic.twitter.com/ifDo5B94Yy
– Scott Abraham (@Scott7news) August 6, 2024
Robinson finished 2023 with 36 receptions for 368 yards and four receiving scores. I’m not great at math, but that tells me he averaged just over 10 yards per reception – number one among all running backs last season. He was fifth in yards per route run and seventh in catch rate. The label Robinson carries that he gives you nothing in the passing game is just plain wrong. Yes, Daniels has the potential to steal work (especially at the goal line), but Ekeler is about to be 30 years old and was 40th in fantasy points per opportunity last season. This is going to be Robinson’s breakout year assuming any improvement in the Commanders’ offensive efficiency.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN)
Give me a quick answer to these questions. How old is Chigoziem Okonkwo? How many years has he been in the league? If you’re anything like me, you answered “somewhere around 27 or 28” and “he has been in the league five or six years.” What if I told you Okonkwo is 24 years old and has only played two NFL seasons? That fact blew my mind. It seems like he is almost one of those NCAA basketball seniors who have been there for four years, but it feels like 14. Okonkwo is by no means a bust or over the hill or not a part of the offensive game plan. In fact, with the new offensive philosophy permeating Tennessee, this might be his year.
Forget the coachspeak from new Brian Callahan when he said they plan to spread the ball around in their tight end room. Coaches want the ball in the hands of their best players, and the Titans’ tight end room outside of Okonkwo consists of Nick Vannett and Josh Whyle as legitimate threats. That is to say, they are not legitimate threats to an improved target share for Okonkwo as he enters his third season.
#Titans Will Levis ? Chig Okonkwo pic.twitter.com/1nc3un99tp
– TURRON DAVENPORT (@TDavenport_NFL) August 10, 2024
Helping his cause is the combination of receivers around him on the field and the Titans’ new offensive plan. The Titans (last in the league in 2023 with 29.1 pass attempts per game) are planning a fast-paced aerial attack this season. Callahan was the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati, who was in the top 12 in passing attempts and team passer rating per game in 2023. The Titans want Will Levis to air it out, but the wide receiver corps is shaky right now.
DeAndre Hopkins is dealing with a leg injury and will be sidelined for 2-4 more weeks. Calvin Ridley is about to turn 30 and was 72nd among all wide receivers in true catch rate last season. Tyler Boyd is a nice idea, but his production plummeted last year to just 667 yards and two scores. Okonkwo is going to get some target share this year. And his uber-athleticism is just what this new-look offense needs.
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