Players to Avoid at ADP: Cole Kmet, TJ Hockenson, Michael Pittman Jr, Nick Chubb

As fantasy football season heats up, navigating the intricacies of Average Draft Position (ADP) becomes crucial for building a winning roster. With countless players vying for your attention, knowing whom to target and whom to avoid can make all the difference in your draft strategy. That’s why we turned to our team of expert analysts, the Featured Pros at FantasyPros, to provide you with valuable insights for the upcoming season.

In this article, the analysts break down the players making waves as must-have targets and those who may be overvalued at their current ADP. Read on to find out which players you should keep an eye on and which ones may be best left on the draft board!

Check out all of our FeaturedPros ADP targets and players to avoid

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Players to Target at ADP

Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)

“Cole Kmet, TE Bears, was a late-round consideration for those that like to go late-round TE. Unfortunately, some of the reports out of Bears camp is that Gerald Everett is running ahead of Kmet in practice. The pre-season game action did, in fact, confirm these reports. The two have been rotating quite a bit. Make sure to “X” Kmet off your draft boards.”
– Justin Jaksa (Dr. Roto)

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN)

“T.J. Hockenson (Fantasy Pros Current ADP TE 13 / Ringo’s Ranking TE 46) I don’t know what folks are thinking and drinking with their stratospheric current ADP of T.J. Hockenson at TE 13, but pour me a glass because it must be really good, haha. Hockenson is coming off major reconstructive knee surgery, which was performed on January 29, 2024. At the time of this writing (August 21, 2024) it hasn’t even been seven months post-surgery! There is no way T.J. will be 100%, not just for week one, but for the entire season! Even if, by some act of God, Hockenson makes a miraculous Adrian Peterson type of recovery, which I highly doubt, the Vikings will still be without QB Kirk Cousins (who left in free agency) and could very well be eliminated from the playoffs by the time he comes back, lessening the odds T.J. plays much, if at all. Bust!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)

“WR Michael Pittman Jr. should be avoided at his current WR20 cost. His ADP is reflective of a career-best 109 catches for 1152 yards in 2023 – marks he is unlikely to replicate in a lower passing-volume offense with QB Anthony Richardson. Pittman Jr. underperformed with Richardson under center last year, averaging 1.8 fewer receptions and 22.7 fewer receiving yards in Richardson’s starts. He has also only averaged 3.75 receiving touchdowns per year over his career, making him a risky low-floor pick in the early rounds of drafts.”
– Dan Larocca (RotoBaller)

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)

“He’s one of my favorite players of all time, both in real life and fantasy. Arguably the best pure runner the NFL has seen since the turn of the millennium. Still, I just can’t convince myself to draft even a sliver of Nick Chubb this season. The Browns are at a crossroads with their franchise right now and what they will do in the future with Deshaun Watson after this season, and we’re not even sure if Chubb will even play a single game in uniform this year at all, let alone one fully healthy game. Even if he does return midway or late in the year, Cleveland is smart enough of a franchise to ease him back into things and make him part of a rotation, not put extra pressure on his body, meaning that he’d likely form an ugly four-headed committee at RB with the likes of Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong Jr., and D’Onta Foreman.

Chubb could be a fine waiver flier late in the year, given his situation, but his household name value is holding that back from actually becoming a reality, given his current ADP of overall pick 88 at an extremely lofty price tag of RB31. I couldn’t live with myself for passing on potentially elite options like Xavier Worthy, Jonathan Brooks, Rome Odunze, Jayden Daniels, Tyjae Spears or Jaylen Warren in this range. Being a personal fan of Chubb’s game – and rooting for him to make a full comeback in the future – simply cannot be valid reasons to draft him inside the top 100 this year.”
– Christopher Dell (Betting Predators)

NFL Cole Kmet Gerald Everett T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) Adrian Peterson Kirk Cousins Michael Pittman Jr. Anthony Richardson Nick Chubb Deshaun Watson Jerome Ford Pierre Strong Jr. D’Onta Foreman Xavier Worthy Rome Odunze Jayden Daniels Tyjae Spears Jaylen Warren