Perfect Fantasy Football Draft Strategy, Advice & Targets (2024)

The 2024 NFL season is rapidly approaching, so it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. Of course, there’s no better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we will have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.

The goal of every fantasy football manager is to complete the perfect draft. Impossible, you say? Let’s call it a stretch goal and strive for fantasy football glory. Here’s my perfect 2024 fantasy football draft.

Pair this analysis with my Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet, Rankings & Targets and you won’t be stopped. L.F.G.

2024 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT KIT

Andrew Erickson’s Perfect 2024 Fantasy Football Draft

Approach to Round 1

Step 1. Draft Breece Hall. Step 2. Auto draft with FantasyPros Draft Assistant. Of course, I am only half-kidding. You should be live and participating in your draft because that’s part of the fun of playing fantasy football.

But I’m not kidding about taking Hall as the 1st overall pick.

Because I believe the golden standard approach of selecting a running back with your first or second-round pick has not changed. Yes, I understand how hip it is to draft WRs and go zero RB.

But RBs that see work as both receivers/rushers SCORE the most points. And when you get the chance to draft someone as talented as Hall, in a situation that is drastically improved compared to last season, that’s where I am going to push ALL my chips in.

Again, part of the reason why WRs have been better at the top was partially based on the player pool at the respective positions. The WRs were better than the RBs. But now we have Hall. We have Bijan Robinson. RBs in their uber-prime to unseat Christian McCaffrey as the RB1 in fantasy football.

One thing’s for certain – running backs are still the drivers behind fantasy-winning teams, so get your talented studs early in Rounds 1-3. Because we have a strong crop of diverse, hungry and young running backs entering the player pool, I’d bet we return to the glory days when the top RBs reign supreme as they have done over the last two seasons.

Draft RBs in the early rounds that you think can be league-winners and true difference-makers. You’re not looking for floor or value this early on. Shoot for the moon, or punt RB down the road.

Hall’s ADP ranges from 4-8. So, he should be easily attainable in most cases with a top 5 pick. If you can pick your draft slot, aim for 4th or 5th if not higher. Bijan Robinson would be next up with a similar ADP. So, if Hall and Ja’Marr Chase are gone, Robinson will be next in the queue for reasons similar to what I laid out.

And when you can snag one of these two (or Christian McCaffrey if you want to embrace the injury risk) this sets you up nicely for my favorite overall strategy in 2024 drafts: hero RB.

With a locked-and-loaded stud in your RB1 slot, you can snag in round two (or round one if you are a mid-to-late snake draft pick). You’ve got one spot dialed in, and the other spot can be filled by the rotating carousel of remaining RBs on your roster.

Solidifying a top RB dog early also helps you avoid reaching for running backs in the upcoming RB Dead Zone, where your primary focus should be drafting WRs poised for significant leaps in 2024. There’s a long tier of RBs drafted after the top guys, where you are much better off just waiting with such a gradual decline in projection. It’s important to identify RBs that CAN stand out from the crowd. If you are going to take an RB early, you can’t have any reservations about their upside. If you do, you are better off waiting for RBs with similar median projections at much better prices.

It’s not till the later rounds you take shots on RBs with potential red-zone roles and pass-catching chops. You’ll also want to hone in on impending 2025 free agents, proven running backs and RBs in ambiguous backfields. That’s where we’ll typically find the next breakout at the running back position.

It’s the exact balancing act of drafting up-and-coming running back breakouts with the elites/top talents, while also playing matchups and avoiding red flags, that will help you draft the perfect team.

Now if you miss out on any of these 3 RBs because you are picking at the backend of Round 1 (recommend avoiding picking toward the end of Round 1 if possible), you need a more strategic approach.

It would help if you were open to going WR first especially with panic ensuing with the likes of CeeDee Lamb (well formerly) Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. These guys fall to the back of Round 1 because there are concerns about contracts (Chase) and QB play (Jefferson).

I won’t get into the details about each situation, but I’m buying the dip on these ultra-talented and productive players. Again, this is a bad year for a late first-round pick. So, when a top 5 pick falls, I am taking advantage of it.

In my particular case, it’s Chase as my primary target as my WR1. It came to my attention in an article published by the Athletic that the Bengals extended A.J. Green during his 5th-year option season. After Julio Jones signed his deal that same offseason. I understand the Chase situation continues to add layers (the latest being him called day-to-day) but I can’t help but think it gets resolved sooner rather than later.

As for scenarios where these WRs don’t fall, it’s A.J. Brown, Jonathan Taylor and Garrett Wilson as my top 3 targets. Depending on the site’s ADP, I will try to mix and match to see if I can get one and then another at the top of Round 2.

Because even if you go WR first there are a plethora of strong RB options still available in Rounds 2+3 i.e. De’Von Achane or Travis Etienne Jr.

And it’s not as if these WRs are a bad option. Especially in PPR.

From 2018 to 2020, in PPR scoring, wide receivers have the highest percentage of top-12 finishes (55%). In 2021, seven of the top 12 overall finishers (58%) were WRs, with six finishing in the top eight. That was true in both PPR and half-PPR. However, the trend did not continue in 2022. Just six WRs finished inside the top 12, with five RBs and one tight end (Travis Kelce). Only four inside the top eight, and an even split between WRs/RBs inside the top six. In half-PPR, five running backs finished inside the top eight overall, with just three WRs.

In 2023, half-PPR scoring was evenly split between top-12 finishers between WR/RB. For three straight seasons, fewer WRs have finished inside the top 12. Four running backs finished inside the top seven compared to three WRs. In the last two seasons, only three WRs have finished inside the top eight of overall scoring. Current ADP has five WRs drafted inside the top eight, compared to 3 RBs.

There are WRs going early that will be outscored by running backs selected after them. Again, to be clear, it’s less likely in PPR than in half-PPR.

I’ve touched on only 1-QB leagues to this point, so I did want to shed some light on the 2-QB/Superflex strategy. In these formats, I am 100% drafting an elite quarterback if I own a top-four selection. I am drafting a quarterback most likely if I hold a top-seven pick. I want to leave my Superflex draft with at least one elite QB in the first round. Then I’ll play chicken with my QB2 slot.

In TE-premium formats, such as the FFPC, you won’t need to draft any tight end in the first round. Travis Kelce is entering his age-35 season and can’t be viewed as the same bulletproof tight end he has been looked at in past seasons. The chase for this year’s TE1 overall is as close as it’s ever been.

Again, if I get to pick my favorite slot I am 100% taking the 1.04. Because we are not drafting the players that won leagues last season. The typical 1-3: McCaffrey, Hill and Lamb were the best picks in Round 1 last year.

It’s a brand-new year, and I prefer Ja’Marr Chase, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson as my favorite top three picks versus the consensus; the sample of the best first-round picks from 2023. Sure, they can fire, and for those that think they can…make them pay full price. I’ll happily choose atop my favorite guys from picks 1.04 through 1.06 between Hall/Chase/Robinson.

That’s how I am approaching the top of the first round. Give me Chase at the 1.05 as my bet on him being “the” WR1 in fantasy football. I love Chase to win the Offensive Player of the Year award. Just need to get that contract signed. Based on the Lamb deal that happened on Monday, I think it will happen sooner rather than later.

Early-Round Players to Target

Mid-Round Players to Target

Late-Round Players to Target

Approach to Round 2

As outline your plan of attack, you should have some idea of what you’ll do in Round 2 based on who you selected in Round 1.

If you were rewarded with a top WR you have options at both RB/WR.

The potential non-first-round/second-round running backs – Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, De’Von Achane, Travis Etienne Jr. – provide more than enough production for a roster’s RB1 slot in my opinion.

Anytime you can build a team that a bystander would look and say, “How did you draft that team!?,” you pull the trigger. Especially in half-PPR scoring formats.

I’m also not opposed to double-dipping at RB with a Hall/Robinson start if I truly believe in the upside case with the Round 2 RB.

Not all hero RBs are created equal. It’s in the eye of the beholder whether you believe a certain RB can be a stalworth part of your RB1 slot. I’ve got seven RBs in my first two tiers of RB rankings who can fill the “hero” RB role. After that, it gets more risky and I am better off waiting to scoop up RB value.

If you want to stick to the hero-RB strategy, we’ve got plenty of WR options to gravitate toward. Mine is Jaylen Waddle, followed by Puka Nacua and Chris Olave. The WR tier is pretty flat in this range, so feel free to go with your personal WR de jour.

But for me it’s Waddle all the way anywhere at the end of Round 2 into the start of Round 3.

Through the first two rounds, my focus isn’t on the positions at RB and WR. It’s a focus on elite RBs and WRs. I want two elite players regardless of their position in my first two rounds. If the board dictates those are two WRs, one RB/WR etc., so be it.

In my opinion, the elite WRs are as follows: Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, Hill and St. Brown.

So if you find yourself in a draft room where the top-end RBs are flying off the board (where you are picking at the end of Round 1) don’t feel scared to continue to draft WR. Rather do the “WR double-tap” than overdraft a sub-optimal running back. The same goes for draft rooms where WRs are drafted aggressively.

I recommend blindly following a Hero RB or Zero RB approach rather than a Zero WR or Robust RB one. Every draft is different, so you should always remain fluid in your approach. But based on the data at our disposal, following the former should set your roster up for success in the early rounds.

Early-Round Players to Target

Mid-Round Players to Target

Late-Round Players to Target

Approach to Round 3

Round 3 is where we have typically seen the elite quarterbacks come off the board. Don’t fall for it.

Being the first to draft a quarterback doesn’t always grant you the highest return on investment (ROI).

Value is still the name of QB, so I stress a pseudo-late-round “elite” quarterback strategy. Essentially getting the last or second-to-last quarterback with top-tier upside to capitalize on value. Of course, this will change based on where QBs fall in ADP, but Rounds 4-6 is the more appropriate range. Round 4 is the earliest I’d even consider an elite QB with either Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. But unless they fall, I am almost 100% waiting longer at the quarterback position.

Back to the players we ACTUALLY want to draft.

Ideally, after Round 2, you have acquired at least one elite running back as your hero RB. This approach makes staying fluid and flexible for the next few rounds much easier. It’s essential to draft at least one running back in the first two rounds because the talent pool starts to fall off toward the end of Round 3 into Round 4. Essentially, you almost run out of reliable “hero-RB” targets.

Now this is more opinion than fact, as we sometimes see “heroes” emerge from the Dead Zone. But it doesn’t happen often.

Besides the middle rounds are chock-full of wide receiver talent, which should be the primary focus. All my recommended players in this round are WRs, aside from Rachaad White. I still think White can be a hero RB, but I don’t love clicking him over the WRs in this range very often especially if I already have a hero RB on my squad. Obviously, a WR-WR start changes that equation slightly.

If any stud RB falls into Round 3, scoop them up. Especially in half-PPR, where running backs are better versus WRs, with the format more dependent on touchdowns.

The RBs in this range come with more question marks, but there’s no denying they have some high ceilings if the deck is stacked in their favor.

Early-Round Players to Target

Mid-Round Players to Target

Late-Round Players to Target

Approach to Round 4

The wide receivers in Round 4 are almost just as good as those in Round 3, so continue to pound away at the position. The primary wide receiver targets include any of the receivers left that didn’t get drafted in Round 3 such as Michael Pittman Jr.or even Jaylen Waddle. There’s also a solid crop of WRs that will also trickle into Round 5 such as Amari Cooper, George Pickens and Zay Flowers.

I’d also say that the tail end of Round 4 or the start of Round 5 is where elite TE comes into play as an option.

If you have only one running back rostered (or none) don’t panic unless there’s an obvious RB faller available. Rachaad White (again) would be the name to watch.

Round 4 Players to Target:

Approach to Round 5

At the start of the middle rounds of drafts, you must come prepared with an optimal and flexible approach. Following up on a strong start is critical to your success. The player pool isn’t as strong as at the beginning of the draft, but the difference in hitting on the right guys in this range can make or break your roster. Don’t try to be perfect; get as many shots on the net as you can.

Four rounds deep, you have already drafted a good chunk of your team. This is your core. Your strategy may differ slightly depending on the foundation you built during the early portion of your draft. Ergo, if you already roster three strong running backs (or at least ones you spent high draft capital on) there’s virtually no need to address the position in any capacity. Depth, especially in leagues where you have access to the waiver wire, tends to be overrated in fantasy football.

The overarching approach to the middle rounds remains static for the most part regardless of what you already did. The focus is still on drafting the best player available (BPA). Too often drafters make the mistake of drafting for need in the middle-rounds – when the priority should be filling your roster with as many potential level jumpers or league-winners as humanly possible. Especially at the wide receiver position. Because it’s easy to find plug-in production (especially at running back) later on. Focus on drafting players that have difference-making upside in their range of outcomes.

The name of the game with wide receivers is to scoop up value in the middle-to-later portions of drafts, with the position counting for the biggest part of your roster in leagues that require you to start 3 WRs. Take advantage of WRs that fall in ADP, while other teams “reach” on running backs they think they need. The same goes for the reverse narrative. Take advantage of RBs that fall in ADP while others reach on subpar wide receivers they think they need.

You will be shocked how quickly the WR position dries up despite the false narrative that the position is deep every year. It’s not deep. If anything, it’s extremely diluted, which makes it much more essential you draft the remaining wideouts toward the start of the middle rounds. You’ll feel (and perform) much better knowing you aren’t trudging out WRs ranked outside the top 40 as your weekly WR3.

Wide receivers in the middle rounds tend to take massive leaps and vastly outperform their ADP. When in doubt, keep drafting WRs that have breakout potential. Chances are they all won’t hit…but all you need is one to hit big to reap the benefits. Draft rookie WRs. Aggressively.

Gravitate toward the pass-catchers in a high-powered offense with some target ambiguity versus the guy who has a more obvious high-end target floor in a bad offense. And do not shy away from the real-life No. 2 WRs…as these players often represent the best fantasy values because their ADPs are almost always suppressed as they aren’t their team’s “No.1.”

But be wary that you need to be price-sensitive to these WR2s. For example, last season, the most expensive WR2s – Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins – failed to live up to expectations.

The majority of cheaper real-life WR2s by ADP – Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, Jordan Addison, Courtland Sutton, Puka Nacua, Brandin Cooks, Romeo Doubs/Jayden Reed – were excellent value selections who drastically beat their ADPs.

Some of my favorite WR targets from rounds 5-9 (picks 50-100) include Rashee Rice, Amari Cooper, George Pickens, Xavier Worthy, Tank Dell, Calvin Ridley, Ladd McConkey, Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Watson.

In 2024 early drafts, some of the cheaper real-life No. 2 WRs include Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Watson, Jameson Williams, Jakobi Meyers, Adonai Mitchell and Joshua Palmer.

Make sure you are getting the real-life No. 2 WR discount. Because you should be, or else it’s a bad deal.

In Round 5 specifically, you’ll want to bolster depth with the next tier of wide receivers and/or running backs. But do your best to push RB out as much as possible in this range coined the “RB Dead Zone.”

Try to go WR or even elite tight end first before another running back. Elite QBs may also be drying up at this point, so don’t be afraid to pull the trigger if a top-tier passer falls.

Round 5 Players to Target

Approach to Round 6

Many of the elite quarterbacks will be off the board before Round 6. If you desire a QB, draft whichever top-tier passer – if any – remains. The opportunity cost of drafting an elite quarterback is so much better in Rounds 5-7 versus Rounds 2-4.

And as always, don’t feel pressured to draft a signal-caller because there are still plenty of great options in the following rounds. Oftentimes one slips into Round 7 or 8, such as Kyler Murray or Jordan Love (Round 6 ADPs).

If there is a potential breakout running back/wide receiver available, continue to exhaust the remaining running backs and wide receivers available atop the 2024 fantasy football rankings.

Again, to hammer your edge at wide receiver, you need to hit on these discounted No. 2 WRs in the middle-to-late rounds as the actual difference-makers/level-jumpers. The RB Dead Zone and the WR Shred Zone are the same.

Another thing to consider is that scoring tends to be flatter. Again, you have the elite WRs at the top. Last season, the top five scorers were at 17+ points per game (PPG). They were also top-seven overall picks in ADP.

If you can draft a truly elite fantasy WR in rounds 1-2, as alluded to at the top, it’s worth it. But after the elite guys, we see things stagnate and scoring flatten. Wideouts ranked sixth to 20th fluctuate between 15.0 and 12.5 PPG. Receivers from the 21st to the 46th score between 12 and 9.5 PPG.

The significant point drop after the elite tier (top-five) indicates a flatter scoring curve for the wide receivers ranked sixth and beyond, up to WR48 (WR4 range). This flatter scoring curve implies the difference in fantasy output among the WRs in these lower tiers is less pronounced than the gap between the top five WRs and the rest.

Given this distribution, the data suggests it’s a viable strategy to wait on drafting WRs after the elite options are off the board, particularly in drafts where the value of securing top performers at other positions (such as running backs or quarterbacks who may have a steeper drop-off in scoring) could outweigh the benefits of selecting a WR outside the top five. The reasoning here is that you might still be able to draft WRs with similar scoring expectations later, allowing you to maximize value at other positions in the earlier rounds.

The standard deviation from WR6 to WR20 (0.84 points per game) is almost identical to WR21 to WR46 (0.92 points per game). The scoring is clustered around their group’s average and less spread out.

Ergo, non-elite fantasy WRs tend to just be fantasy WR2s. And low-end fantasy WR2s are just a massive tier that leaks into the WR4 range.

So it’s not really, WR1, WR2 WR3, etc. It’s more like elite, WR2 and WR4 as the 3 tiers of WRs based on last year’s scoring.

This supports the strategy of potentially waiting to draft WRs after the top performers are off the board, as the variance in performance increases, but it doesn’t drastically change once you move past the top 20 WRs.

If a WR in the middle rounds looks and smells cheap, they probably are. And the same goes for if you feel they are overvalued. They most likely are.

Because inherently the way WR scoring is, the guys with higher ADPs are more difficult bets to return on their ADP. They are preferred for a reason – upside arguments, etc. But there’s no denying you can always grab another WR a round later that will probably meet or potentially exceed a player before them in scoring.

However, you must acknowledge you can’t keep punting off the WR position because there is ANOTHER cliff after the WR4 tier. Eventually, you need to compile points at the position, even if it’s neutral or -EV selection at the time of drafting.

At least this is how the points were distributed last season.

Be firm and concise in creating three tiers for WRs, with an elite tier (potential for top-five scoring), a top-20 tier and then a 21-48 range tier where you can pick your flavor. Based on the site draft ADP you can mix up your WR exposure in this range.

For me, the top five WRs are clear as day. It’s not until we get to D.J. Moore that things start to taper off in the back-end WR2 range. And after we hit Calvin Ridley as my WR34, there’s a clear drop-off in the WR rankings with rookies entering the conversation.

Round 6 Players to Target

Approach to Round 7

Only once you’ve got a plethora of breakout WRs to work from do I permit you to dive back into the running back pool before we enter the double-digit rounds. I can guarantee you will feel better about overloading with WR breakouts than settling for an RB2 because you have to.

Because after WRs, breakout RBs are the next target in the middle rounds. Specifically, once the drafts enter the late RB2/early RB3 range (RB20-RB38) or RBs with a top-40 ADP.

That group presented the greatest hit rate for fantasy running backs.

Running backs that hit in this general range last season: James Conner, James Cook, D’Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, Rachaad White, David Montgomery, Isiah Pacheco, Brian Robinson Jr., Raheem Mostert and Kyren Williams.

Keep in mind that the majority of RBs in this range can be found in my Tier 4. Here are some of my favorites in 2024: James Conner, Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren, Devin Singletary, Brian Robinson Jr., Chase Brown, Blake Corum and Javonte Williams.

You can find the full-tiered rankings in my 2024 fantasy football rankings.

Identify running backs with the potential to see/possess goal-line roles in high-scoring offenses. Pinpointing a team’s primary red zone back is an easy way to hit on a fantasy running back.

Last year’s examples? Kyren Williams, Raheem Mostert, Isiah Pacheco, Javonte Willaims, Gus Edwards

If you are low on the “starter” you should naturally be higher on the No.2 RB in the same backfield.

Didn’t believe in Cam Akers, Najee Harris, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, Dameon Pierce or Alexander Mattison in 2023? You should have drafted Kyren Williams, Jaylen Warren, Chuba Hubbard, Zamir White, Devin Singletary or Ty Chandler.

Target impending free agent running backs. The biggest hits from 2023 include Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders and Jamaal Williams. Last year it wasn’t as successful, but I’d trust the process. Especially with almost the same crop of RBs likely playing on one-year deals again.

Notable free agents at the end of the 2024 season include J.K. Dobbins, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Samaje Perine, Najee Harris (declined fifth-year option), Jaylen Warren, Jeff Wilson, Javonte Williams, Justice Hill, Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Gainwell, Elijah Mitchell, Khalil Herbert, Cam Akers, Rico Dowdle, D’Onta Foreman and A.J. Dillon.

Target running backs on quality offenses (cumulative offensive ADP deemed above average).

Aim for running backs on teams with no clear-cut starter ie. ambiguous backfields. This is where breakout running backs are often found.

Other major hitters were running backs that boasted pass-catching chops. Volume is and remains king. When in doubt, draft the guy who has a proven track record.

Do not prioritize running backs on offenses that have not yet proven to be above average while treading lightly on running backs that don’t have a lot of job security. With running backs, ask yourself: What would it take for RB “X” to lose the starting job?

Fade early-season opportunities in favor of late-season production when the weeks and points become more critical in specific formats. You need to strike a balance between early and late-season production.

Hitting on the right running back late can be the true difference-maker.

Round 7 Players to Target

Approach to Round 8

For the remaining onesie positions, you are once again playing the value game.

My favorite QBs to target in the middle rounds (picks 50-100) include Kyler Murray, Jordan Love and Jayden Daniels.

The same approach goes for the tight end position. By zero means am I willing to draft a tight end in the middle rounds that doesn’t have elite upside. And again, they need to fall into ADP. That’s why using tiered rankings is so critical to your success, as it helps you unearth draft values by preventing reaches.

“Stay out of the middle” at tight end.

The only tight ends I am actively targeting in the middle rounds (considering ADP) are Jake Ferguson, David Njoku and Brock Bowers. You miss out on that crop, keep on waiting. I recently got Dallas Goedert in a draft several rounds after his ADP as the last manager to draft a TE. If you miss out on an elite TE, kick back and wait.

Round 8 Players to Target

Approach to the Double-Digit Rounds

The full Sleeper List can be found here.

You should be actively implementing “what if” thought exercises in the late rounds of your fantasy football drafts. Simply put, “if “x” happens, what would that do to “x” player’s value.” Again, this is most commonly seen from injuries, with players seeing spikes in production/value when a teammate goes down. Some players have that factored into their ADPs with injury-prone teammates, but others do not. And at the end of the day, it’s full-contact football. Guys we expect to get hurt and guys we don’t expect to get hurt will miss games. We can’t project when/if said injuries will happen but savvy drafters can stockpile the back of their drafts with talented players who are being discounted because of their situation.

Worry not about what Player A’s role will be in Week 1 when you draft them in the late double digits. Chances are that doesn’t matter. Focus on their range of outcomes should he see an expanded role as the season wanes. Fantasy championships aren’t won in September or October.

Don’t overvalue early-season opportunities versus talent. Just buy the dip when ADP is so suppressed due to the situation. And don’t forget about the players who delivered worthwhile performances in the past when they were presented with opportunities. Being a proven asset in some capacity matters.

Puka Nacua, Brandon Aiyuk, Zay Flowers, Nico Collins, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, Jayden Reed, Jordan Addison, Jahan Dotson, Joshua Palmer, Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas, Dontayvion Wicks and Demarcus Robinson all either increased their production or commanded targets at a high rate due to injuries to teammates around them this past season. Not all of them are late-round picks, but some are still super cheap. And those are the archetype of players you should be looking to target.

Some of my favorite late-round WRs (outside the top 100) include Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Keon Coleman, Rashid Shaheed, Dontayvion Wicks, Darnell Mooney, DeMario Douglas, Khalil Shakir, Jermaine Burton, Joshua Palmer, Adonai Mitchell, Ja’Lynn Polk, Michael Wilson, Luke McCaffrey, Jalen McMillan, Andrei Iosivas, Jordan Whittington, Jalen Tolbert and Malik Washington.

I also believe in another thought exercise of, “He’s the discount version of Player X.” I find it very useful.

Players with defined roles that go extremely late can also be beneficial targets. The constant bombardment of “upside-centric” analysis makes these players not talked about enough. There’s an upside to playing an every-down role on an offense when heavily discounted.

Still, chasing the upside-centric dragon is not wrong. You want upside on your fantasy football teams. But some balance never hurts. Because “only-upside” players typically also have extremely shaky floors. And too many guys that fail to fire will leave your squad helpless.

Last note. Chase players that project for air yards and rookies. Air yards tell us how often a player is being used downfield, which is part of the formula when it comes to spike weeks of fantasy production. Particularly at WR and TE.

Some potential late-round guys in 2024 drafts that commanded a high end of their team’s air yards (20% or higher) in 2024 include Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Christian Watson, Mike Williams, Jerry Jeudy, D.J. Chark, Kendrick Bourne, Darius Slayton, Michael Wilson, Joshua Palmer, Gabe Davis, Kyle Pitts, Rashid Shaheed and Jameson Williams.

Players with high aDOTs (average depth of target) include Jalin Hyatt, Tre Tucker, A.T. Perry, Van Jefferson, Christian Watson, Gabe Davis, D.J. Chark, Marvin Mims and Jameson Williams.

When it comes to rookies, you need to be aggressive in drafting them. Specifically for rookie WRs.

Their ADPs often do not fully capture the upside they possess. The ADP acts more like a hedge or median projection when first-year players of recent years are so much more boom-or-bust. They either hit in a big way – Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, Drake London, Chris Olave, Christian Watson, Zay Flowers, Puka Nacua, Jordan Addison, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, Tank Dell – or drastically underwhelm – Jonathan Mingo, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Marvin Mims, Skyy Moore, Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams etc.

They are lottery tickets frequently discounted outside the top 36. Take full advantage. They all won’t hit. But being overweight on rookie will net you in the green.

Keep in mind rookie WR roles often grow as the season progresses. That makes them the perfect backfill targets for drafting formats with prize structures heavily based on the final few weeks of the season. My favorite strategy is drafting veterans and rookie WRs from the same teams. It’s a very underrated strategy that helps you capture an immense upside. Also, it guarantees you at least one “hit” from each WR group you draft.

Last year would have looked like this from some of the top guys

We hardly saw both guys hit (C.J. Stroud, you are a god). But the presence of just one other pass-catcher suppressed the cost of the other making it easier for them to smash their ADPs.

If you missed out on a quality tight end in the early rounds then chasing quantity with multiple guys in the late rounds is your new strategy.

Essentially the TE15-TE32 range. But, in all honesty, this “late-round tier” starts after the top ten guys (Njoku/Ferguson).

I don’t overextend for any of these TEs because the production will likely be negligible at best drafting toward the beginning of the tier versus the end. Wait and take shots on multiple tight ends. Ideally ones with either a path for receiving volume, an every-down role, and/or above-average athleticism.

My favorite late-round tight ends to target (outside the top 10) include T.J. Hockenson (I’d bet he comes back in full after missing time post-ACL injury), Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry, Tucker Kraft, Brock Bowers, Zach Ertz/Ben Sinnott, Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson.

Among the late-round QBs, you must draft knowing what their schedule is to open the season. Because they are non-established studs, you need to know they have plus-matchups working in their favor to trust them in your starting lineup.

My favorite late-round quarterback options include Jayden Daniels, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Justin Fields and Daniel Jones.

I discussed ad nauseam the advantage you can acquire by drafting an elite tight end or quarterback in the early portions of your draft (especially in best ball). But chances are you aren’t doing both. Savvy drafters won’t let the elite onesie positions go by too frequently. There’s a chance you might need to address the position as the middle-rounds kick-off.

But there are so many options available with the late-round QB approach that it is my favorite strategy to implement in 2024.

The early-season schedule is also key. Signal-callers with a favorable schedule to start the year include Jared Goff, Caleb Williams, Deshaun Watson, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa and Daniel Jones.

Among the top-10 quarterbacks last season in total points scored in 2022, eight rushed for at least 250 yards. In 2023, six of the top eight QBs rushed for at least 240 yards. Call it the 55-25 rule. Can quarterback “X” throw 550+ times and/or rush for 250 yards? Those are your top targets. The QBs that accomplished this feat in 2023 were Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Sam Howell, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott.

Per FantasyPros’ projections, QBs with at least 535 projected pass attempts and 250-plus projected rushing yards are Daniels, Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Watson and Lawrence.

Round 9 Players to Target

Round 10 Players to Target

TOP NAMES TO CONSIDER IN DOUBLE-DIGIT ROUNDS (FINE TO REACH)

Round 11 Targets

Round 12 Targets

Round 13 Targets

Round 14 Targets

Round 15 Targets

Round 16 Targets

Final Round Targets

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Final Thoughts

You can play the value game until the cows come home. But the key to winning in fantasy football is to pair that value with early-round producers. Sometimes those early-round players don’t feel like values. But, that’s why they are going early. They are projected to be good and don’t necessarily have obvious flaws. And most importantly, nobody remembers the ADPs of guys that hit, unless they were essentially free at the end of drafts. If you are bullish on specific players and the price seems at least reasonable to a slight overpay, take the leap of faith.

To bring in a betting allegory – I am a BettingPros expert, after all – you can have all the closing line value in the world. And that should make you a profitable bettor over time. The same goes for drafting value in fantasy football. However, I’ve got a bookshelf full of closing line value (CLV) trophies that never amounted to anything. It doesn’t necessarily mean you were right about a certain player, team or situation, etc.

Conversely, I’ve made plenty of bets where I missed the value window, but ultimately, I was right, so it didn’t matter. We all want to get the best players at the best draft prices. Nobody wants to overpay. But if you truly believe based on your research, intel and perhaps gut that a certain player or team can be a major difference maker, the price shouldn’t matter. Because when it’s all said and done, the value doesn’t win for you.

And that dovetails nicely into my last (I promise) final thought experiment. You think Player A is going to smash. But my response is if you want him you must draft him in round one. No acceptations. Still, feeling bullish?

Do you like this player? Or do you just like the price of said player? Make sure you know the difference between the two types of players you are targeting. Because what often happens is you think you like a player, but you actually just like the price. But once the price changes, you don’t change your stance.

I lied. One more last takeaway.

I don’t know everything, but I can guarantee you will never draft a perfect fantasy football team (despite what my perfect draft article claims). Tournament-winning best ball teams that won millions of dollars have “bad picks” on them. I bring this up because you can strategically draft “misses” to better your team in the aggregate.

To bring up a real-life comparison, I’ll cite my final 2024 NFL Mock Draft for The Huddle Report. I placed very well in it because I attacked it with a different approach. I purposely let certain stud players fall like Quinyon Mitchell and Dallas Turner to teams they had been linked to throughout the process. I was essentially taking a loss in my estimation so I could bolster my picks at the start where I was more confident. I left my pursuit of perfection at the door trying to get all 32 picks exactly right in exchange for a higher hit rate on my other picks.

And it got me thinking about how I could similarly approach fantasy football drafts. After all, I will draft guys that bust or don’t do anything. And so, I bring forward the idea of hedging with your fantasy teams.

A lot of this is just RB handcuffing or WR/TE teammate stacking. I’ve been pretty against handcuffing RBs, especially in normal redrafts, but I’ve been more open to the idea when I’ve thought about it more. If I have to sacrifice a double-digit round pick to guarantee I’ll get RB1 production from my first- or second-round pick, I’m for it. And the same can be said for WR/TE stacking. Because once one guy goes down, you know the opportunity will be there for another pass-catcher in the offense to step up. I mentioned this when referencing the veteran/rookie WR draft strategy.

If the WR/TE starter stays healthy all year long and the rookie never sees the field? Well, I got a starter that produced all year long. I think the less you try to be 100% perfect with every single draft pick you make in pursuit of absurd levels of upside, the better off you will be. Some might cite this as playing scared, but I think it’s smart. The best ability is availability. And you’ll never go broke making a profit. If the opportunity arises in a draft to hedge (cost being appropriate) you should take it.

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