In the higher average draft position (ADP) ranges of wide receivers for 2024, it’s imperative to avoid all of the landmines that exist within the receiver rankings. Some aren’t as easy to spot as others. For some of those hard-to-spot potential busts this season, we’ll chronicle a couple that pose a serious risk to your fantasy teams.
Here are a couple of fantasy football wide receivers with bust potential at the higher end of rankings this season.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Overvalued Wide Receivers to Avoid
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
FantasyPros ECR: WR14
I went back and forth on how many times I wanted to put “reception merchant” for Michael Pittman, but I think once should suffice. With the Colts running a lot of run-pass options (RPO) and the primary read off of the pass end of that being the WR1 in most instances, Pittman was able to capitalize off of that last season to set career-bests in targets (150), receptions (109) and receiving yards (1,152).
But we’re not playing 2023 fantasy football in 2024. Gone is Gardner Minshew, from whom Pittman caught the vast majority of passes with. Yet, Pittman’s price in FantasyPros’ expert consensus fantasy football rankings (ECR) seems to be priced high like that is going to repeat with Anthony Richardson.
It’s been well-documented (at least lately) about some of the struggles Richardson has had throwing the ball. It wouldn’t be a surprise if a very neutral Colts offense in terms of pace leans on the run game with Jonathan Taylor. Add in some designed runs with Richardson instead of having him pass; that would likely be in the cards during the early part of the season. The touchdown equity — which Pittman has never been strong at anyway — is even lower with the passing game options in this offense.
Why in the hell is Michael Pittman a third-round pick?
For all the reasons we hate most dead zone RBs (pure volume projection players whose workloads are fragile behind them), Pittman is the dead zone RB of WRs
Pittman belongs in the sixth round in all fantasy formats
— Kevin Tompkins (@ktompkinsii) August 16, 2024
Add in second-round rookie Adonai Mitchell to an already-entrenched Josh Downs, and a thin passing-game pie becomes even thinner. The bets for Pittman even coming close to matching his 2023 season is extremely thin. Add in all of those other factors and Pittman’s WR14 ECR ranking seems incredibly egregious.
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
FantasyPros ECR: WR16
I’ll be completely honest: I didn’t want to write this blurb calling Cooper Kupp a bust. I want to believe. If there’s somebody I want to believe can return to form following several lower-leg injuries, it’s Kupp. That’s the rub, however.
Kupp took another big step back in his per-route profile from his record-setting 2021 where he was at 3.12 yards per route run (YPRR) to 1.86 last season. While 1.86 is not bad by any means for a wide receiver, his yards per target also dropped from 10.3 to 8.0 yards and his targets per game also slid from 11.1 in 2021 to just 7.7.
On Matthew Stafford's 322 plays where Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both ran routes:
Target Share:
Nacua: 30.2% (87 Targets)
Kupp: 25.7% (74)Receiving Yards:
Nacua: 829 (53 Receptions)
Kupp: 556 (49)— Ben Wolby (@BenWolby) July 19, 2024
How much of that dropoff is Kupp getting older and how much of that dropoff is due to Kupp’s lower-leg injuries? Kupp famously had tightrope surgery on his ankle toward the end of 2022. In 2023, he had a hamstring strain that set him back until Week 5, but he played the rest of the season. Still, those injuries do accumulate and for a player entering his age-31 season who primarily plays in the slot and needs short-area burst. Having to draft him at the end of the second round and into the third round is very scary.
Taking into consideration his dropoff, his recent injury history and the fact Puka Nacua exists in the same offense, Kupp is an easy fade for me. That’s not to say I’m not scared of fading him, because I am. But I’d rather have somebody else hold the bag on Kupp this season.
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Kevin Tompkins is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Kevin, check out his profile and follow him @ktompkinsii.
