The landscape of the tight end position has changed recently. It wasn’t too long ago that if you didn’t get one of the top three, it was slim picking with extreme frustration. Now that we have a bigger selection, we can be a bit more picky. At one point, these were solid choices, but now they won’t get you the results you’re looking for. Here are overvalued tight ends to avoid in upcoming fantasy football drafts.
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Tight Ends to Avoid
David Njoku (TE – CLE)
Last season, David Njoku enjoyed his best season with a career-high 882 receiving yards and six touchdowns. That was good enough to finish as the fantasy TE6, but don’t look for the same production.
Those great fantasy performances came with Joe Flacco at quarterback. He didn’t put up the same production with Deshaun Watson under center. With Watson, Njoku averaged 8.2 points per game; without him, he averaged 12.6.
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
Cole Kmet is another tight end coming off impressive back-to-back seasons. A lot has changed for the Bears this offseason, though, which doesn’t help Kmet’s situation.
Bringing in a rookie quarterback will make it tough enough, but the Bears upgraded the receiving core by drafting Rome Odunze at No. 9 to complement DJ Moore. They also improved the running game by signing D’Andre Swift, who can catch the ball out of the backfield. And they added Keenan Allen, too.
Adding more receiving options to the offense, which was 31st in passing play percentage last year, will not give Kmet enough chances to be productive or outperform his average draft position (ADP).
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN)
T.J. Hockenson will likely miss the first half of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. Even if you believe in buying into the dip for a significant return later, that will not happen.
That would have been tough because he would not built any chemistry with Vikings rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, but now he’ll have first-round bust Sam Darnold as his quarterback. He must also compete with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones in an offense that could lean on the run.
Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU)
We’re highlighting another tight end who has brought great results in the past. This shows how much the landscape of the position has changed recently.
Many tight ends are focal points in their offenses, so when you see one even in an excellent offense with other players who are also good enough to share the targets, you must look elsewhere.
Nico Collins proved to be a top-tier wide receiver at the end of last season, Tank Dell will return from his injury and the Texans brought in Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. There are too many mouths to feed to take a risk on Dalton Schultz.
Brock Bowers (TE – LV)
Brock Bowers was the top tight end prospect because he has size, athleticism and excellent hands. The problem is he was drafted into a bad situation. The Raiders having Gardner Minshew as their starter does not scream confidence.
This offense sent Michael Mayer, last year’s tight end prospect, into the abyss. Although Bowers is a better pass-catching tight end, he may not get the opportunities. This will be a heavy-run offense, which is Luke Getsy’s specialty. Most targets will go to Davante Adams.
Jonnu Smith (TE – MIA)
Jonnu Smith is coming off a great year in Atlanta, even at times out-performing Kyle Pitts. The move to Miami should be positive, but it might be worse.
The team was third in points scored and yards per game, and second in yards per play. The problem with the others mentioned is that there are too many options for everyone to be happy. That’s the same in Miami. Tyreek Hill is still one of the best receivers in the league, Jaylen Waddle is one of the fastest and then you have the backfield duo of De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, who both can catch the football.
Look at the history of tight ends in Mike McDaniel’s offense. Last year, Durham Smythe had 336 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. Mike Gesicki went from over 75% route participation in the years before McDaniel to 56.3% in 2022.
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