It’s easy for me to sit here and point at players being overvalued and over-drafted after a season in which we saw Raheem Mostert and Kyren Williams finish as top-six running backs, but that’s exactly what I’m here to do. And I’m just here so I don’t get fined.
My point is, if you like a guy and believe in him, then go get him. I’m here to tell you why you’re wrong and it’s a poor decision, but by all means, go get your guy. Fantasy football should be fun, after all, and maybe your guy will end up being the next Kyren Williams.
Either way, here are six running backs I believe are being overvalued in fantasy football drafts. Avoid these overvalued running backs.
It’s easy for me to sit here and point at players being overvalued and over-drafted after a season in which we saw Raheem Mostert and Kyren Williams finish as top-six running backs, but that’s exactly what I’m here to do. And I’m just here so I don’t get fined.
My point is, if you like a guy and believe in him, then go get him. I’m here to tell you why you’re wrong and it’s a poor decision, but by all means, go get your guy. Fantasy football should be fun, after all, and maybe your guy will end up being the next Kyren Williams.
Either way, here are six running backs I believe are being overvalued in fantasy football drafts. Avoid these overvalued running backs.
The Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby in 2023 with visions of a thunder-and-lightning duo between him and Travis Etienne. As we all know, Bigsby flopped in his rookie season, but coach Doug Pederson and the Jaguars are steadfast in their hopes to increase Bigsby’s role while lightening Etienne’s usage. That message has remainedconsistent all offseason and throughout training camp.
“I think Tank has a bigger role this year, going into Year 2. It’s something that we’ve been looking at. We definitely know we gotta take a little bit off of Travis [Etienne] and keep him healthy for an entire season… I think Tank’s… pic.twitter.com/7FTsctuKZo
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 29, 2024
Etienne finished as the RB3 overall in half-PPR last season, making his RB8 average draft position (ADP) seem digestible upon the first taste. Take a bigger bite, however, and you will see his success was based largely on his share of the pie, thanks to Bigsby’s inability to eat. Etienne garnered nearly 76% of the team’s running back opportunities, the sixth-highest mark across the NFL. He tallied the fourth-most carries and seventh-most targets at the position but landed at 55th in true yards per carry with 3.6. He was 29th in yards created per touch at 3.32, 34th in yards per touch at 4.6 and just 25th in fantasy points per opportunity.
A case can be made that those marks will go up with a lighter workload, leading to fresher legs, but then we are removing the volume he relied upon last season. You can make the case Bigsby isn’t good enough to take on more work, but that’s not the bet you should be making at RB8. If Bigsby can’t do it, the Jags will likely find someone who can.
I expect the focus of this season to be on Trevor Lawrence‘s development, particularly with the additions of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis to play alongside Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. Suddenly, there are plenty of mouths to feed in this offense and it seems the best case for Etienne is a tighter workload with increased efficiency. Add more volume and the efficiency dips. His situation and recent efficiency are both quite similar to that of Joe Mixon, who is being drafted as RB15/43 overall. Etienne’s price tag of RB8/18 overall feels closer to his ceiling than his likeliest outcome.
Admittedly, I’ve been what the youths might call a “hater” when it comes to Rachaad White. It’s for good reason, though, and that’s because he’s not a very good NFL running back. Sure, that’s coming from the guy wearing sweatpants, eating a candy bar and icing his back after sitting in an office all day, but bear with me. White finished last season with a Pro Football Focus (PFF) rushing grade of 66.7, placing him 74th among running backs while his breakaway run rate of 13.8% landed at 76th.
His 4.6 yards per touch were 33rd-best and his 3.5 true yards per carry put him at 57th. But wait, there’s more. His expected points added were astonishingly low at -44, good for the 145th-best mark in the league. On the flip side, White faced a light front 67.3% of the time, the highest rate in the league, which is a result of defenses begging the Bucs to hand it off to him. White finished the season with the second-most carries, fourth-most receptions and the fourth-highest weighted opportunities. In other words, White was entirely reliant on volume.
He’s a solid pass-catcher, I’ll give him that, but many of the running back targets are a result of him simply being there rather than earning them. We know volume is king at the running back position, so I can understand the optimism from that standpoint, but White was wildly inefficient in 2022 as well and has shown no signs of being a capable NFL rusher. At some point, the Bucs will want to see what literally anybody else can do with those touches. Between Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker, the reserves faced a glut of injuries last season and were incapable of pushing White. Fourth-round draft pick Bucky Irving just might be the one to change that after an efficient career at Oregon.
It’s certainly possible White will eat up all the volume and plod his way to another RB1 finish, making me look like a fool, but there are plenty of running backs going later I would prefer. Joe Mixon is often dinged for his inefficiency but he’s in a similar spot, in a better offense and has proven far more, yet he’s going nine picks later. One thing is for certain, you won’t catch me relying on Rachaad White in December with my candy bar, sweatpants and ice pack on; there’s no doubt about that.
To be fair, RB21 feels reasonable for David Montgomery and I’ve seen him go much higher in some places. He’s all the way up at RB16 on Yahoo. There’s also a lack of running back, shall we say, ‘talent’ at this point in the draft, but there are some I believe have greater upside. Plus, there are wide receivers and tight ends in this range I much prefer.
The biggest issue with Montgomery is regression, and while that’s somewhat baked into his price, there’s a decent chance the regression hits harder than many are expecting. The Lions scored 3.4 touchdowns per game last season, an incredibly strong mark, after scoring 3.1 in 2022. History suggests the touchdown total will dip this season, not because the Lions aren’t a good offensive team, but because even the best offenses regress from those numbers.
Jamaal Williams rushed for 17 touchdowns in 2022 and we weren’t expecting Montgomery to match that total, but he registered 13 of his own in 2023. As the overall touchdown output regresses, we can expect Montgomery’s to regress as well. Where things get interesting is Jahmyr Gibbs sporting an ADP of 12 overall (RB6). That doesn’t seem unreasonable if the Lions have the same output on offense they did a year ago.
But look a bit closer, and you’ll see the goal line split over the first half of the season when the two backs shared the field together was 8-1 in favor of Montgomery, but from Week 10 onwards, that split was 11-10 for Montgomery. The two running backs offer different skill sets and the Lions will want to utilize them both, but if Gibbs is who we think he is, shouldn’t the Lions maximize his usage? It seems they were trending towards doing so late last season.
If we expect the Lions’ touchdown total to dip, Montgomery’s share of goal-line work to dip and Gibbs to be an elite running back, do we still believe Montgomery will be an RB2 with very little pass work? Even if he is an RB2, it feels as though his ceiling is capped much lower than those being drafted around him.
