It’s easy for me to sit here and point at players being overvalued and over-drafted after a season in which we saw Raheem Mostert and Kyren Williams finish as top-six running backs, but that’s exactly what I’m here to do. And I’m just here so I don’t get fined.
My point is, if you like a guy and believe in him, then go get him. I’m here to tell you why you’re wrong and it’s a poor decision, but by all means, go get your guy. Fantasy football should be fun, after all, and maybe your guy will end up being the next Kyren Williams.
Either way, here are six running backs I believe are being overvalued in fantasy football drafts. Avoid these overvalued running backs.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Overvalued Running Backs to Avoid
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) | Half-PPR ADP: RB22, 64 Overall
Say hello to another one of my all-time “hater” players. We’ll just call this the Player Haters Ball. D’Andre Swift has always been a home run hitter and he joins an offense that could be electric in the passing game. If that’s the case, the offense just may be able to open up holes big enough that even Swift can’t miss them.
Despite his big play ability, Swift has lacked the vision to succeed in running between the tackles. Even with a stout Eagles offensive line last season, Swift finished 28th in yards per touch and 51st in yards created per touch. The Bears gave him a decent contract, so I would expect Swift to lead the backfield, at least early in the season, but the room is deeper than most.
Khalil Herbert has posted a better PFF rushing grade than Swift over the past three seasons, while Roschon Johnson has a stronger receiving grade. The Bears have rotated running backs in the past, but now they turn play-calling duties over to Shane Waldron. In Seattle, Waldron preferred to utilize multiple running backs as well. Combine those factors with Swift’s injury history, and I’m passing through this RB dead zone.
Zamir White (RB – LV) | Half-PPR ADP: RB23, 69 Overall
It feels like the running back dead zone no longer exists, as it shifts every year. This range, however, feels like the closest thing to a dead zone as I’m writing about three consecutive running backs in ADP. This is often the range where starting running backs who we don’t quite know what to do with end up going.
I think I speak for literally everybody when I say we expected Josh Jacobs to return, or for the Raiders to invest more in the running back position. Instead, they chose to hand the backfield to Zamir White, so there’s that. Outside of that, however, nothing stands out about White’s past performances that make me believe he can turn volume into success.
His fantasy points per opportunity were 62nd among running backs last year while his yards per touch were just 32nd. His yards created per touch were 30th and his true yards per carry were 28th. The team brought in Alexander Mattison, who blundered his opportunity last season, but is a capable NFL running back, and drafted Dylan Laube. With Luke Getsy coming over to call plays from Chicago, he will likely get multiple backs involved as he did in the windy city.
The Raiders offense, led by Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell, is going to need a GPS to find the end zone this season, so how much is the volume worth? I’d prefer taking either of the running backs in Pittsburgh or somebody like Zack Moss, who could realistically fall into the end zone 10 times before the Raiders figure out how to use their GPS.
Trey Benson (RB – ARI) | Half-PPR ADP: RB36, 104 Overall
Being drafted as the RB36 comes with a low investment, so it might feel like I’m picking on the rookie running back, but that’s not the case. Trey Benson is a solid dynasty investment, but I don’t see it for him this season and I’d prefer to take my chances on players like Gus Edwards, Chase Brown, Zach Charbonnet or a Dallas running back, who are all going later.
The Cardinals love James Conner, and he has one year left on his contract, suggesting the team could give him all he can handle this season, before turning to Benson next season. Many reports out of training camp suggest just that. The word on the street remains that this offense will “run through James Conner.” Not only that, but some Cardinals reporters anticipate Michael Carter may wind up as the RB2 this season, not Trey Benson. If that’s the case, I would view Benson as the direct handcuff to Conner, with Carter working as a change of pace back to whomever the early-down runner is.
Conner is coming off his best season as a pro, notching 1,040 rushing yards and tallying five yards per carry. His true yards per carry of 4.7 were ninth-best in the league, and even as he ages, he popped off for the seventh-highest breakaway run rate. Conner is also a bully in the red zone, averaging nearly 10 rushing touchdowns per year in his three seasons with the Cardinals. There’s some contingent/handcuff value with Benson, but he’s being drafted before legitimate starting running backs with an opportunity to take over their respective backfields. I like the enthusiasm for Benson, but we may be a year early on this one.
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