The 2024 NFL regular season is nearly here. Therefore, there will be a massive number of fantasy football drafts over the next 10 days. Many factors go into winning your fantasy football league. However, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced.
Let’s look at six overvalued fantasy football draft players based on Yahoo ADP.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: Yahoo Leagues
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
- Yahoo ADP – 102.1 | QB12
Tagovailoa began last year on fire, averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. However, his production fell off a cliff in the second half, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular season contests. Tagovailoa also struggles in the cold, completing 63.2% of his pass attempts in games 50 degrees or colder compared to 70.9% in games above 50 degrees (per Fantasy Points Data). He averaged fewer fantasy points per game (15.9) than Russell Wilson (17.1) and Jake Browning (16) last year.
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
- Yahoo ADP – 52.9 | RB19
The veteran was the RB2 in the playoffs on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. However, Jones struggled to stay healthy during the regular season. More importantly, he ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts (per Fantasy Points Data). Fantasy players should draft Ty Chandler several rounds later than Jones at his ADP.
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
- Yahoo ADP – 97.5 | RB29
Unfortunately, Chubb only played 1.5 games last season because of a gruesome knee injury. While the veteran averaged 6.1 yards per rushing attempt on 28 attempts last year, he won’t be ready for Week 1. Furthermore, Chubb will likely start the 2024 season on the Physically Unable to Perform list because of the knee injury, knocking him out for at least the first four games. Fantasy players playing in a league without an injured reserve spot should put the veteran on their do-not-draft list because of the knee injury.
Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU)
- Yahoo ADP – 46.9 | WR22
There are two reasons why fantasy players should avoid drafting Diggs as a WR2 in 2024. The veteran has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. He was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% target per route run rate from last year in Houston. The veteran should be the third Texans receiver drafted and a seventh-round pick.
Adam Thielen (WR – CAR)
- Yahoo ADP – 129.2 | WR52
Thielen was the WR5 over the first six weeks last year, averaging 17 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the veteran was only the WR46, averaging seven fantasy points per game over the final 11 contests despite seeing a 22.6% target share and 21% target per route run rate (per Fantasy Points Data). The Panthers added multiple weapons in the offseason, including Diontae Johnson. While Thielen had some bright moments last season, the veteran has no business getting drafted in a standard-size league in 2024.
David Njoku (TE – CLE)
- Yahoo ADP – 89.9 | TE10
While Njoku averaged a career-high 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, the tight end was quarterback-dependent. He was TE13 in the five contests that Deshaun Watson had at least six pass attempts, averaging 6.3 fantasy points per game. By comparison, Njoku was the TE1 in the five games with Joe Flacco under center, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per contest. Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy’s arrival adds significant target competition for the veteran tight end. Instead of drafting Njoku, fantasy players should pick Brock Bowers with a later draft price.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
