The 2024 fantasy football season is nearly here. While some players’ fantasy value will change during the preseason, many leagues will have their draft over the next few weeks. There are two critical factors to winning your fantasy football league – finding sleepers and avoiding overpriced players.
Let’s look at six players that are overvalued fantasy football draft picks based on NFFC ADP from August 1 through August 13 for redraft leagues.
The 2024 fantasy football season is nearly here. While some players’ fantasy value will change during the preseason, many leagues will have their draft over the next few weeks. There are two critical factors to winning your fantasy football league – finding sleepers and avoiding overpriced players.
Let’s look at six players that are overvalued fantasy football draft picks based on NFFC ADP from August 1 through August 13 for redraft leagues.
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: NFFC Leagues
Miami recently gave Tagovailoa a long-term extension, keeping him as the team’s quarterback for the foreseeable future. While he is a solid NFL player, Tagovailoa is on my do-not-draft list in 2024. The former Alabama star started last year on fire, averaging 2.7 passing touchdowns and 22.6 fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff in the second half of the season.
The veteran averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game over the final seven regular season contests. Tagovailoa also struggled in the cold, completing 63.2% of his pass attempts in games 50 degrees or colder compared to 70.9% in games above 50 degrees last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Despite having Tyreek Hill at his disposal, Tagovailoa (15.9) averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Russell Wilson (17.1) and Jake Browning. Fantasy players should pass on Tagovailoa and draft Jared Goff with a later ADP.
White was the RB7, averaging 13.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year. However, he was an RB1 because of volume, not his talents. White was second in rushing attempts (272) but 14th in yards (990). He also ranked 89th in yards after contact per attempt, 84th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 76th in explosive run rate. Furthermore, his explosive run rate (2.2%) was lower than Latavius Murray’s, while his rushing yards after contact per attempt (2.24) was worse than Kevin Harris’ (per Fantasy Points Data).
More importantly, White was a top-10 running back because of his role in the passing game. He had the seventh-most targets (70), fourth-most receptions (64), and third-most receiving yards (549) among running backs last season. Over 44% of his fantasy points scored in 2023 came in the passing game. However, that likely won’t happen again after the Buccaneers added Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irving during the NFL Draft. While James Cook and Josh Jacobs have a slightly lower ADP than White, I’ll draft both over the former Arizona State star.
Jones had an outstanding two-game run during the playoffs. He was the RB2 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest against two talented defenses. However, fantasy players must worry about his regular season struggles, as the veteran running back missed six games and left two others early because of hamstring and knee injuries. More importantly, Jones changed teams this offseason and is coming off arguably the year of his career.
The veteran posted career lows in yards per rushing attempt (4.5) and breakaway run rate (18.6%), per PFF. Jones ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, he turns 30 in December and is on a one-year contract. I would rather draft David Montgomery and Zamir White with a later ADP over the veteran running back.
There are few players I will refuse to draft anywhere near their ADP this year, with Diggs at the top of that list. The veteran wide receiver’s draft cost is rising when it should be sinking. He has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. Diggs was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run, both lower averages than Noah Brown (per Fantasy Points Data).
I would consider giving the former superstar another chance in 2024 if he was still Josh Allen’s No. 1 wide receiver. Diggs saw a 27.5% target share, a 28% target per route run rate, and a 27.5% receiving yards market share last season with the Buffalo Bills (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, the veteran won’t see similar numbers this year, with Nico Collins and Tank Dell coming off impressive 2023 performances. Diggs should clearly be the third Texans receiver drafted and a late-sixth-round pick.
Fantasy players had high expectations for Jerry Jeudy heading into last season. However, it was Sutton who became Denver’s No. 1 wide receiver. The veteran had 10 receiving touchdowns last year, the fourth-most in the NFL. By comparison, he never had more than six receiving scores in a season before last year. Not only were the 10 touchdowns a career-high, but they accounted for over 40% of his career total. Yet, Sutton was far from a must-start wide receiver for fantasy players.
The veteran wide receiver was only the WR35, averaging 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing in 16 contests and his high touchdown rate. Sutton averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Kendrick Bourne despite having six more receiving scores. Furthermore, over 37% of Sutton’s fantasy points last year came from his receiving touchdowns. With Bo Nix expected to take over under center, don’t be surprised if Sutton struggles after having a career year in 2023.
Goedert is still a talented starting-caliber NFL tight end. However, his days as a top-12 tight end are likely over. The veteran was the TE14, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, totaling only 7.6 more total fantasy points than Jonnu Smith. His 7.6 fantasy points per game average was the lowest of his career since his rookie season in 2018. More importantly, Goedert had three receiving touchdowns, making it the third time in the past four years that he had three or fewer scores.
Philadelphia’s passing attack flows through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, leaving Goedert fighting for targets. The veteran was 11th in target share (17.7%), ranking behind Zach Ertz, and 18th in target per route run rate (20%) behind Chigoziem Okonkwo among tight ends with at least 40 targets last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, his target volume could decline even more with Saquon Barkley in town. Fantasy players should draft Pat Freiermuth with a later ADP ahead of Goedert.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
