Fantasy football players should be knee-deep in preparing for their redraft leagues. Many factors go into building a league-winner fantasy football team. Yet, the top factor is arguably avoiding players that will bust or are overpriced.
Let’s look at six players that are overvalued draft picks based on MyFantasyLeague ADP for redraft leagues.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: MFL Leagues
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)
- MFL ADP – QB12
There is plenty to like about Williams, even as a rookie. However, everyone should temper their expectations for the top overall pick, especially after his preseason performance. He has an outstanding supporting cast, including DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. Unfortunately, anyone drafting him as a top-12 is reaching. C.J. Stroud had arguably the top rookie season for a quarterback ever. Yet, Stroud was only the QB9, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game. While the rookie has significant upside, Williams shouldn’t be drafted as a QB1.
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
- MFL ADP – RB23
The veteran was the RB2 in the playoffs on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. However, Jones struggled to stay healthy during the regular season. More importantly, he ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts (per Fantasy Points Data). Fantasy players should draft Ty Chandler several rounds later than Jones at his ADP.
Austin Ekeler (RB – WAS)
- MFL ADP – RB31
While he was once a top-tier running back, I refuse to draft Ekeler this season. The veteran went from a featured heavy workload with the Los Angeles Chargers to Brian Robinson Jr.’s partner in crime. Furthermore, Ekeler’s production has severely declined over the past few years. He has averaged 2.99 or fewer yards after contact per attempt in back-to-back seasons. By comparison, the veteran averaged 3.01 or more yards each of his first five years in the NFL (per PFF). Ekeler is ranked outside of my top 36 running backs.
Davante Adams (WR – LV)
- MFL ADP – WR10
Fantasy players should feel more confident drafting Adams if Gardner Minshew is the starting quarterback. The veteran has a habit of locking in on his No. 1 wide receiver, giving Michael Pittman Jr. a 28.3% target share, including a 35.8% first-read target share in his 13 starts last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, Adams averaged 12.6 half-point PPR points per game last season, his lowest average since 2015. The veteran is slightly overpriced at his WR10 ADP. Adams should get drafted as a mid-range WR2, not a top-10 guy.
Keenan Allen (WR – CHI)
- MFL ADP – WR29
While Allen was the WR3 on a points-per-game basis in half-point PPR scoring last year, his days as a must-start receiver are over. He is a volume-based receiver, averaging 9.4 targets per game in his career. Unfortunately, the veteran won’t see the same target volume in Chicago. DJ Moore remains the No. 1 wide receiver after recently signing a massive contract extension. Meanwhile, Allen must compete with Rome Odunze for snaps and targets. More importantly, the veteran has missed 11 games over the past two seasons because of injuries.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN)
- MFL ADP – TE12
There is no reason for Hockenson to have a top-12 ADP. The veteran tight end is coming off a torn ACL from late last year and will miss a significant chunk of the 2024 season. Furthermore, fantasy players should worry about his quarterback situation. Meanwhile, Hockenson saw his production decline with Justin Jefferson playing. He averaged 7.3 targets and 9.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in eight contests with Jefferson. By comparison, Hockenson averaged 9.9 targets and 13.7 fantasy points per game in eight contests without the superstar receiver.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
