Shortly after Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell caught a beautiful 36-yard touchdown pass from C.J. Stroud in their preseason game against the Pittsburgh Steelers I took to Twitter (or “X,” call it what you will) to post “Well, Dell’s ADP is going to shoot up by a full round now.”

Oddly enough, that isn’t an exaggeration.

Humans are predictable, living in the “here and now” mindset with the “what have you done for me lately” attitude. Recency bias tends to sway our opinion of players, mainly when they perform well in preseason games. After all, this is our first taste of football in months, so there is a tendency to overblow or exaggerate every good play that occurs in mid-August.

Experts aren’t immune to shifting their rankings due to preseason breakouts, so paying attention to changes that might occur on your league’s host site is essential. I’ve been keeping a close eye on ESPN’s default rankings since they were updated in June, providing my thoughts on players that provide potential value or those you should stay away from. Here are a few I’d recommend passing on, given their current cost on ESPN compared to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR).

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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid: ESPN Leagues

Quarterbacks

I have discussed ESPN’s overall ideology before, but I’ll review it again briefly for first-time readers. Generally speaking, their rankings overvalue running backs and rookies and highly devalue quarterbacks, second-tier wideouts and some tight ends.

Finding a quarterback you should pass on is an exercise in futility, given how low they are ranked. Starting with Josh Allen (ECR’s 23rd overall-ranked player who fell to 42nd in ESPN’s rankings) onward, no quarterback is ranked higher in ESPN’s default metrics. The more one progresses through the rankings, the larger the divide becomes, culminating with some genuinely absurd chasms.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) is ECR’s 93rd-ranked player. You’ll need to flip several pages to find him at 201st overall on ESPN. Jared Goff (QB – DET) is ECR’s 96th-ranked player. He falls one spot further to 202nd overall on ESPN.

The list goes on. Don’t worry about reaching here.

Running Backs

Fourteen of the top 30 players on ESPN’s default rankings are running backs. They clearly put a premium on the position. Some of the most egregious differences of opinion occur with these players that fall a little later:

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE) | ECR: 64th Overall/ESPN: 48th Overall
• Zamir White (RB – LV) | ECR: 73rd Overall/ESPN: 59th Overall
• Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN) | ECR: 99th Overall/ESPN: 81st Overall
• Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) | ECR: 112th Overall/ESPN: 90th Overall

Emphasizing locking down the running back position makes sense in a myriad of ways in fantasy football. Running backs are notoriously injury-prone due to the beating they take each time they are allowed to carry the ball, so taking a volume-based approach makes sense. The vast majority of players at the position also face a committee situation where their role and touches are capped, making “bell-cow” options even more valuable. The list goes on.

That said, we’d recommend pivoting elsewhere, especially for the abovementioned players.

Rhamondre Stevenson is one of the lone bright spots in New England’s offense and will continually face a stacked box against which to run. His projected volume is enticing, but don’t dismiss his inability to stay on the field — he has played in more than 12 games just once in his career.

Zamir White flashed when given an opportunity during Weeks 15-18 of 2023 after Josh Jacobs went down with an injury, finishing as the RB12 in fantasy points per game during that stretch. However, White’s upside is capped due to a lack of targets in the passing game and significant question marks about the Las Vegas quarterback situation. We’d recommend selecting James Conner (our RB19 and 61st-ranked player) instead, who ESPN has ranked 64th overall.

Predicting the split in total touches between Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard is anyone’s best guess at this point. If money talks and one bases their approach on contract size, Pollard wins this committee situation, hands down, after he was inked to a massive four-year deal in free agency. Overlapping skill sets muddy the waters further, coupled with Tennessee’s coaching staff stating they will use a hot-hand approach. We prefer to avoid it altogether.

Old man Ezekiel Elliott has definitely lost a step (or two, or 10), and banking on him to find the fountain of youth during his age-29 season is a fool’s errand. With just one 1,000-yard rushing season since 2019 and coming off of a career-worst 3.5 yards per carry (YPC), his best playing days are clearly behind him. He will remain on the field as a trusted short-yardage and pass-blocking specialist, but Rico Dowdle is by far the more explosive player, who can be acquired several rounds later.

Wide Receivers

• Keon Coleman (WR – BUF) | ECR: 123rd Overall/ESPN: 100th Overall
• Xavier Legette (WR – CAR) | ECR: 176th Overall/ESPN: 131st Overall
• Adonai Mitchell (WR – IND) | ECR: 160th Overall/ESPN: 135th Overall

ESPN closely mirrors ECR rankings for the first 100 players or so before clearly emphasizing rookies shortly after.

Keon Coleman is an intriguing player due to Buffalo’s mass exodus during free agency to improve their salary cap situation. The departure of both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis opens up a bevy of targets that will be spread among Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox and Coleman. Coleman’s large 6-foot-4, 215-pound frame makes him a perfect contested-catch specialist in the “X” role, but we don’t view him as a volume-based play his rookie year as he learns the playbook.

Xavier Legette found a perfect home in Carolina, as the Panthers are desperate to find a complimentary piece opposite Diontae Johnson in the passing game. Questions remain about Legette’s upside, as most of his collegiate production at South Carolina came in just one season. His impressive physical traits are enticing (and reminiscent of DK Metcalf). Still, anyone taking a shot at him around his current rankings is banking on Legette learning the route tree faster than expected.

Adonai Mitchell’s inclusion on this list isn’t a knock on his talent but more of a concern of his expected total touches. As an explosive player at the University of Texas, Mitchell’s skill set is best suited to being a deep threat — a role already occupied by Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin. Even if he were to surpass those players on the depth chart (which we expect), he will need to contend with Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor for targets on a run-first team with a quarterback prone to scrambling after his first read is covered. Call us skeptical about a massive breakout.

Tight Ends

• Kyle Pitts (TE -ATL) | ECR: 78th Overall/ESPN: 68th Overall

Those who have read my articles since I joined FantasyPros over the winter know I’m a massive advocate of Pitts — I’m fully endorsing a breakout season and buying into the hype. Kirk Cousins is under center and the departure of Arthur Smith can’t be understated. Better days are ahead for Pitts in 2024. ESPN is on the same wavelength as me and isn’t afraid to rank Pitts ahead of more historically consistent options like Keenan Allen or Terry McLaurin. If you’re willing to climb aboard the hype train, come aboard; there is always room for more. However, at 68th overall, it is removing any potential return on investment for Pitts, so be wary.

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