While the NFL preseason hasn’t reached the halfway point, fantasy football drafts are underway. There are two things fantasy players need to win their league – find potential sleepers and avoid overpriced players who can bust.
Let’s look at six players that are overvalued fantasy football draft picks based on Sleeper ADP for redraft leagues.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: Sleeper Leagues
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)
- Sleeper ADP – 97.4 | QB11
There is plenty to like about Williams, even as a rookie. However, fantasy players should temper their expectations for the quarterback. He has an outstanding supporting cast, including three talented wide receivers – DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. Unfortunately, anyone drafting him as a QB1 will regret the move. C.J. Stroud had arguably the top rookie season for a quarterback ever. Yet, he was only the QB9, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game. While the rookie has significant upside, Williams shouldn’t be a top-12 quarterback in ADP.
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
- Sleeper ADP – 22.3 | RB9
The former Texas A&M star was outstanding as a rookie, finishing as the RB4 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 16.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. Furthermore, Achane averaged 7.8 yards per rushing attempt, a 12.6% explosive run rate, and 1.36 fantasy points per opportunity (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, those numbers aren’t repeatable. More importantly, he struggled to stay healthy as a rookie. After the Dolphins brought back Raheem Mostert and drafted Jaylen Wright, Achane shouldn’t get picked before featured running backs like Derrick Henry and Isiah Pacheco.
Zack Moss (RB – CIN)
- Sleeper ADP – 91.6 | RB29
Moss averaged 22 touches and 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his five healthy contests for the Indianapolis Colts without Jonathan Taylor last season. Unfortunately, those numbers are misleading. His 3.1% explosive run rate, 2.29 yards after contact per attempt, and 51% stuff rate during those five games would have ranked in the bottom six among 33 running backs with at least 170 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, Chase Brown has recently gained ground on the starting role and received significant hype lately.
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)
- Sleeper ADP – 75.5 | WR35
Unfortunately, the Vikings will have a new Week 1 starting quarterback for the first time since 2018. Addison was the WR21 as a rookie, averaging 11 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he was productive because of a high touchdown rate (9.3%). Furthermore, seven of his 10 receiving scores came in the eight games with Kirk Cousins under center. Addison was the WR37, averaging 8.7 fantasy points per game without Cousins. He is on my do-not-draft list this year after being a boom-or-bust touchdown-dependent receiver as a rookie.
Adonai Mitchell (WR – IND)
- Sleeper ADP – 120.7 | WR51
Fantasy players should have patience with Mitchell. He will be a fantasy star one day, but not early in his rookie year. The Colts signed Michael Pittman Jr. to a massive extension this offseason. Meanwhile, Josh Downs has been impressive and could return from an injury by Week 1. More importantly, Mitchell has struggled to beat out Alec Pierce for snaps and targets during training camp. Indianapolis will have a run-heavy offense built around Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson. Mitchell is worthy of a last-round selection, not an 11th-round pick.
David Njoku (TE – CLE)
- Sleeper ADP – 87.9 | TE10
While Njoku averaged a career-high 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, the tight end was quarterback-dependent. He was TE13 in the five contests that Deshaun Watson had at least six pass attempts, averaging 6.3 fantasy points per game. By comparison, Njoku was the TE1 in the five games with Joe Flacco under center, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per contest. Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy’s arrival adds significant target competition for the veteran tight end. Instead of drafting Njoku, fantasy players should pick Jake Ferguson with a similar draft price.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
