Tom Strachan | Thu, Aug 15th 2024, 7:05am EDT

7 Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid: FFPC Leagues (2024)

Drafts are happening thick and fast with every site offering a plethora of options to suit any budget or taste. One of the longest-running platforms is The FFPC, who cater more often to the higher budget options with drafts ranging from $35 up into the thousands, but the most popular is the FantasyPros Championship, a massive redraft contest with $1,000,000 to the winner.

FFPC uses a full PPR format with an additional 0.5 points awarded to tight ends for each reception. These are the most obviously overvalued fantasy football players to avoid on FFPC in August.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: FFPC Leagues

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI): 14.0 ADP

The positives for Saquon Barkley are that he’s now in the most competent offense of his career and will be playing behind the best offensive line he’s ever played with, even if it’s lacking Jason Kelce’s presence. The negatives though — and there are several of them — are that Barkley’s route to fantasy gold seems somewhat blocked by the Brotherly Shove QB sneak still being allowed, something that led to Jalen Hurts leading the league in touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line last year with 13.

The Eagles have a play that is undefendable, so why give Barkley goal-line touches for the sake of it? Add to this that the Eagles targeted the running back position at the 12th-lowest rate in the league and it’s quite hard to imagine how Barkley strives and pays off his first-round average draft position (ADP) cost. Added to this, Will Shipley and Kenneth Gainwell continue to get plenty of run with the first team in training camp, suggesting this could be more of a committee than many would hope.

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB): 40.9 ADP

When Josh Jacobs first landed with the Packers it felt like a match made in heaven with a young ascending offense wanting to get younger at the position, but also willing to give out a reasonable-sized contract to the former Raiders back. Unfortunately, the more you consider it the more it seems obvious Jacobs will fail to get the workload he needs to pay off his current ADP. Matt LaFleur has historically preferred a two-running-back system, using AJ Dillon throughout his time in Green Bay to spell Aaron Jones, despite Jones being hands down the better back. LaFleur’s history with this tactic dates back to Tennessee when he was a coordinator and kept Derrick Henry off the field in favor of Dion Lewis. The reports around Green Bay suggest MarShawn Lloyd will be a big part of the rotation when he returns from his minor hamstring strain. Jacobs historically hasn’t been efficient enough to make up for anything but a workhorse role.

George Pickens (WR – PIT): 54.3 ADP

Perhaps the current poster boy for ‘better in best ball,’ George Pickens’ fantasy production is as volatile as they come, which can be a hard pill to swallow in managed formats like this one. Through two seasons in the NFL, Pickens has seven top-12 weekly finishes in half-point per reception formats, but he also has a massive 17 finishes as WR40 or worse. Pickens has had to deal with woefully inadequate quarterback play under the unambitious leadership of Mike Tomlin in recent years. While Justin Fields and Russell Wilson might be upgrades over Kenny Pickett, the QB battle in Pittsburgh seems anything but a wealth of riches. It would be easier to accept his dud weeks if you take him in WR-heavy builds like Zero RB starts. If you’re starting RB-heavy, you’ll likely have Pickens as your WR2 and be relying on him for more production consistently.

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): 50.5 ADP

With the additions the Kansas City Chiefs have made it’s fair to expect a bounceback season for Patrick Mahomes after a career-worst QB14 finish last year, the first time he finished outside the top six as a starter. Mahomes, though, is currently going as the QB2 on FFPC, ahead of both Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson who have far bigger weekly upsides due to their rushing floor. Since the start of the 2018 season, there have been 48 quarterbacks who averaged 5.0 rushing attempts per game. Of that 48, 64% finished as a top-12 quarterback in points per game with 46% finishing top-12 in total points scored. This is the barrier Mahomes has to overcome with excellent efficiency every year. While he’s done it plenty of times in his career, it’s risky at this cost.

Jayden Reed (QB – WR): 76.5 ADP

The Packers have a wealth of options at the wide receiver position and Jayden Reed may be the very best of them, but it’s hard to choose him when gameplans and matchups could move the game away from him in a given week and instead feature Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs or Dontayvion Wicks, not to mention their other options at tight end and running back. Reed averaged an impressive 13.5 PPR points in his rookie season, but this was massively inflated because of the 10 touchdowns he scored. Scoring touchdowns is an important part of fantasy football, but not the most sticky attribute. In the seven games Reed failed to score touchdowns he never finished higher than WR36.

Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC): 87.0 ADP

The Chargers were desperate for wide receiver help after moving on from both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason. They invested excellent draft capital in Ladd McConkey, trading up several sports to secure him with the second pick of the second round. McConkey never truly broke out at Georgia with Brock Bowers being the constant focus of the passing game. While it’s fair to give him a slight pass because of that, it would have been a lot nicer if we’d seen a bit more from him, having never surpassed 800 receiving yards or reaching double-digit touchdowns. Sometimes players find themselves pushed up the board simply because ‘someone has to catch the ball’ and that’s not an argument that feels worth a top-100 pick, especially when Justin Herbert is dealing with plantar fascia, keeping him in a walking boot for a few weeks.

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN): 104.8 ADP

On Underdog and DraftKings it’s not uncommon to see T.J. Hockenson falling into the 150 range of drafts, which still feels a tad high for a player coming off a torn ACL and MCL knee injury he suffered in Week 16. The most optimistic scenarios expect Hockenson to be back on the field around Week 6, at which point Hockenson will be expected to get up to speed with a new rookie quarterback. By the time Hockenson is healthy he could be, at best, the third option behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Yes, the TE-premium scoring makes the position more valuable, but parting with a top 105 pick for a player who could give you nothing for half a season feels like a steep price to pay. Unless we hear positive news about Hockenson, he’s best left alone until his ADP gets to around 150, which it likely will as we get to training camp when he lands on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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