It’s important to identify overpriced players as you prepare to make picks in your fantasy football leagues. However, these overvalued assets can vary depending on the commissioner site you use for your fantasy football draft. We’ll have you covered this fantasy football draft season as we’ll explore the fantasy football draft values and players overvalued for each specific fantasy football commissioner site. Today we explore overvalued players to avoid on Fantrax.
As we head into Week Two of the NFL Preseason schedule, depth charts and average draft positions (ADP) are starting to crystalize. While every draft is unpredictable, trends and groupthink can lead to similar-looking ADP across various platforms.
That makes gaining an edge in fantasy drafts more difficult. It’s not impossible, though, and we’re here to help. Here are some overvalued players to avoid in fantasy football drafts on Fantrax.
It’s important to identify overpriced players as you prepare to make picks in your fantasy football leagues. However, these overvalued assets can vary depending on the commissioner site you use for your fantasy football draft. We’ll have you covered this fantasy football draft season as we’ll explore the fantasy football draft values and players overvalued for each specific fantasy football commissioner site. Today we explore overvalued players to avoid on Fantrax.
As we head into Week Two of the NFL Preseason schedule, depth charts and average draft positions (ADP) are starting to crystalize. While every draft is unpredictable, trends and groupthink can lead to similar-looking ADP across various platforms.
That makes gaining an edge in fantasy drafts more difficult. It’s not impossible, though, and we’re here to help. Here are some overvalued players to avoid in fantasy football drafts on Fantrax.
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
Green Bay running back Josh Jacobs is currently being overvalued according to ADP data from Fantrax. Some of this data includes older drafts, but Jacobs going more than a full round above his FantasyPros’ expert consensus ranking (ECR) still doesn’t make much sense. For reference, Jacobs is the RB10 (31.37 ADP) on Fantrax, while ECR has him as the RB14 (46th overall).
Jacobs is only 26 years old but he’s entering a new offensive system known for utilizing multiple running backs. An injured hamstring will sideline rookie running back MarShawn Lloyd for an undetermined amount of time, but the mid-third round is still a bit rich for a player with so many question marks.
Despite being among the best young slot receivers in the NFL, Green Bay’s Jayden Reed is a risky selection at his current ADP of 72.07 overall on FanTrax. Reed is an ascending player coming off an impressive rookie season (912 total offensive yards, 10 total touchdowns) but there are a couple of question marks in his profile.
Reed is an obvious regression candidate after scoring 10 total touchdowns on only 75 offensive touches. According to Underdog’s Hayden Winks, Reed had a “+30% fantasy points over-expected finish. He did so by ranking 16th in completion percentage over expected (+13%) on his deep targets and 15th in receiving TDs over expected (+2.4 scores).” That type of efficiency will be difficult to repeat.
Along with a drop in efficiency, Reed could also suffer from a reduction in volume. Last season, Reed did the majority of his damage with Christian Watson sidelined (16.49 PPR points without Watson, 11.31 with both active). With Watson currently healthy and Reed still not playing in 2WR sets, there are better options available in this range.
San Francisco tight end George Kittle is a top-three talent at the tight end position and one of the safest picks you can make every season. Unfortunately, some of Kittle’s best on-field work doesn’t help us on the fantasy football gridiron and his upside is capped by the talented skill-position players surrounding him.
Despite sharing targets with Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel last season, Kittle still finished as the TE6 in fantasy points per game. That’s nothing to scoff at and I’d expect more of the same this upcoming season, but you have to consider the opportunity cost in play here. Would you rather use a late sixth-round pick on Kittle and his 12.7 points per game (PPG) or draft one later while you load up at other positions?
The Aiyuk contract situation is the elephant in the room here, but recent reports suggest a compromise could be on the horizon. If that changes and Aiyuk is eventually traded out of town, Kittle’s ECR won’t stay in the late-80’s for much longer.
New York Jets wide receiver Mike Williams has missed 18 games over the past two seasons, is third-in-command (at best) behind Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall and is attached to a 40-year-old quarterback recovering from a torn Achilles. Other than that, all signs are positive for the former Clemson standout.
All snide remarks aside, it’s hard to justify Williams’ inflated price on Fantrax. Williams has a collective ADP of 120.4 (WR50), much higher than his 138 (WR58) ECR spot. Injuries are fluky and it’s important not to typecast everyone as injury-prone but the injury history coupled with the other red flags is enough to scare me away.
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