Welcome to the second week of NFL preseason. Once again we are blessed with an island game on Thursday night, so that means it’s time for a showdown slate.
- NFL DFS Picks & Advice
- NFL Betting Picks
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
Eagles vs. Patriots Preseason DFS Picks
Head Coaching Tendencies
Nick Sirianni: There were reports before the Eagles’ opening preseason game that the starters would see at least one series. That turned out to be false and Nick Sirianni continued a trend throughout his tenure as head coach: The starters are not playing in the preseason. Since 2021, here are the number of snaps that the presumed Eagles starters saw under Sirianni:
- Jalen Hurts: 10 snaps (2021), eight snaps (2022)
- Dallas Goedert: Five snaps (2021), eight snaps (2022)
- A.J. Brown: Eight snaps (2022)
- Miles Sanders: Eight snaps (2022)
Look for that to continue this week since the Eagles and Patriots had just one joint practice this week. As is the case for almost all NFL teams, the starters get valuable reps against opposing teams in controlled environments. Coaches get to dictate the various scenarios rather than rely on the potential situation in a live game.
Jerod Mayo: True to his word, anyone healthy enough to play played for the Patriots in their first exhibition game. Unfortunately, that also meant headaches outside of the running back position. Unlike the Eagles, the Patriots have hinted that the starters will get more reps than last week, despite the joint practice on Tuesday. Fortunately or unfortunately, the Patriots don’t have many clear-cut starters.
Quarterbacks
Eagles (3) – Jalen Hurts will not play.
Kenny Pickett wasn’t terrible in his preseason debut with the Eagles. He also wasn’t good either. He completed 14-of-22 pass attempts for 89 yards and a touchdown. Pickett has a significant edge over third-string QB Tanner McKee. Expect to see approximately the same split in playing time as last week for both Pickett and McKee.
Tanner McKee’s stat line was awful, however, his receivers didn’t help him at times.
9) Let’s end with Tanner McKee. It’s preseason, why not?! The Eagles QBs were very conservative on the night so it was good to see McKee firing this one into a tight window. QBs have to be willing to throw these tight seam balls. I would like to see McKee get some reps with… pic.twitter.com/Ejt4mrorUT
– Jonny Page (@JonnyPage9) August 12, 2024
Patriots (4)
Jacoby Brissett is still the starting quarterback for the Patriots. According to Mayo, the starters will be getting increased work. Considering Brissett only played four snaps, that’s not hard to do.
Jerod Mayo looking ahead to the Eagles: “This week, we’ll have starters playing a lot more.
– Alex Barth (@RealAlexBarth) August 11, 2024
Drake Maye continues to have good moments in camp and then follows them up with bad moments. Both playing time and better personnel around him will help him grow. Unfortunately, Maye has not made up a lot of ground on incumbent starter Brissett.
Last week both Maye and Brissett attempted only three passes each. This game will likely be different. It’s not fully the dress rehearsal, but Mayo has hinted several times about the starters and Maye getting more time.
“Yeah, for all the quarterbacks, it’s a huge week for those guys to really show development,” head coach Jerod Mayo said before practice. “Drake will play more this week, for sure. But don’t forget, anytime you practice against a team, they’ll get a lot of good reps against someone else and based on that, we’ll see how they’ll play in a game.”
Joe Milton only attempted six passes in the Patriots’ first game, however, he did throw a touchdown and added 22 yards on the ground on five rushing attempts. The underlying issue with Milton will be playing time availability. If Maye and Brissett see a combined half of football or more, that could leave Milton with a quarter to work with. The rushing upside is certainly there, but we might need to wait until closer to kickoff to see if there’s definitive playing time information available.
Bailey Zappe played the most snaps of any Patriots offensive player (36 snaps) outside of Javon Baker (38 snaps). He threw the ball 20 times, completing 12 of his passes for 108 yards. As with Milton, we just don’t know how much playing time is available here.
Running Backs
Eagles (5): Saquon Barkley won’t play. If Kenneth Gainwell plays it might not be for long. His spot on the 53-man roster is likely still safe.
Will Shipley rushed seven times for 23 yards, two of those attempts came in the red zone. He caught his one target in the passing game for a seven-yard touchdown. Shipley played a total of 19 snaps. The Eagles put him in quite a few situations and he fared well.
Preseason Week 2.
Will Shipley. All rush attempts, targets, and pass pro reps. pic.twitter.com/voLMIeWNZz
– Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) August 10, 2024
Lew Nichols rushed seven times for 21 yards. Two of Nichols’ rushing attempts came inside the 5-yard line. He caught his one target in the passing game but lost a yard. He played a total of 19 snaps as well.
Per @TruMediaSports, Lew Nichols‘ 71.3 percent success rate as a runner is the best for any running back in the NFL with at least five carries this preseason.
– Bo Wulf (@Bo_Wulf) August 10, 2024
Kendall Milton played 15 snaps and led Eagles running backs with nine carries for 39 yards. He was targeted once in the passing game but didn’t log a reception. Milton and Tyrion Davis-Price seem neck-and-neck competing for a spot on the practice squad. While Davis-Price isn’t in the player pool on DraftKings, his usage likely will impact the Eagles’ running back upside.
Patriots (6) – Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson are the starters, so we know they’re going to play, according to Mayo. The one issue is that both of their jobs are safe entering the regular season. If the Eagles starters on defense are resting, one (or both) of these guys could put up serviceable numbers in a short time. Both Stevenson and Gibson are guys I’m interested in but need more information as the day goes on to see just how much playing time they might see.
Kevin Harris led the usage in the Patriots backfield in the first preseason game. He totaled 22 snaps and had eight carries for 22 yards and a touchdown. He was targeted three times and had one catch for six yards. I’m expecting a slightly reduced workload for Harris on Thursday, but he’s still a solid option in Showdown.
JaMycal Hasty had 17 snaps, recording five carries for only 10 yards. He also caught both of his targets for 16 yards.
Terrell Jennings made the most of his time on the field. He logged 15 snaps and had six carries for a team-high 38 rushing yards. He also caught both of his targets for 11 yards. One interesting note regarding the Patriots’ running backs is that the team re-signed Deshaun Fenwick this week. Whether he plays in this game is to be determined, but it could heavily impact the snap distribution at running back.
Wide Receivers
Eagles (11) – Don’t expect to see A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith or Parris Campbell.
Johnny Wilson’s debut in the preseason left a lot to be desired. He led all Eagles receivers with 42 snaps, however, he only caught one of his three targets for a seven-yard gain. In practice, however, Wilson continues to shine. The key for him is to be able to do in games what he’s done in practice.
John Ross was second behind Wilson in snaps (39) and was heavily involved. Targeted five times, Ross caught three passes for 28 yards. There is competition for the fourth wide receiver spot and Ross is in the thick of it currently.
Britain Covey was third in snaps (38) and was also involved a bunch in the passing game. The former return man caught all four of his targets for 25 yards.
Joseph Ngata played 36 snaps and was targeted three times. Unfortunately, he didn’t record a reception in this game. He needs a good game to stay on the practice squad bubble.
Jacob Harris might have only finished the game with two catches for 16 yards, but he was targeted six times (led the Eagles). He played 31 snaps in the first game. This would be the fourth season for Harris, should he make a 53-man roster. With the Eagles receiver depth chart very thin after the starters, he could make a case to land on the practice squad.
Austin Watkins (WR – PHI) and Ainias Smith (WR – PHI)
Last year’s preseason hero, Austin Watkins, played only nine snaps. Ainias Smith on the other hand played 23 snaps. Both were only targeted once and each caught their lone target. For Smith, it was a crucial third-down catch.
Patriots (11) – Kendrick Bourne is out.
Pay attention to inactive announcements as it gets closer to game time. DeMario Douglas missed the first preseason game but has been ramping up his workload and during most of the joint practice with the Eagles he was one-on-one with Quinyon Mitchell, the Eagles’ first-round pick. If Douglas plays, I’m very interested in stacking him with Brissett.
Javon Baker played 38 snaps and caught two of his four targets for 11 yards. He’s going to get heavy snaps in this game and is a great option.
Ja’Lynn Polk played 32 snaps and caught all three targets for 14 yards.
Drake Maye to Ja’Lynn Polk … right into your living room. Shon Stephens in coverage. pic.twitter.com/ZqQjJpJGB5
– Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) August 13, 2024
While the two Patriots rookie receivers have garnered attention, Kayshon Boutte had himself a nice game last week. He was targeted six times, catching three passes for 53 yards. Boutte, Polk and Baker were the only three Patriots receivers that had more than 20 snaps in this game. As such, these three should be the primary focus when targeting Patriots receivers.
The best of the rest: Jalen Reagor could be in play for a revenge game narrative of sorts. While he only played 10 snaps on offense last week, he did receive two targets. He’s stood out also in the return game. Reports from Tuesday’s joint practice had Reagor having a solid day against the Eagles. JaQuae Jackson caught his lone target for 38 yards. Tyquan Thornton was making his way back from injury and a lot of missed practices last week, so there’s a chance he could see an increased amount of activity against the Eagles.
Tight Ends
Eagles (8) – Don’t expect to see Dallas Goedert.
Trying to figure out the Eagles’ tight-end rotation is going to be like trying to find a needle in a stack of needles. Albert Okwuegbunam and Grant Calcaterra are dealing with injuries, so both might miss this game. This could open the door for a lot of E.J. Jenkins.
Playing time in the first preseason game was as follows: Okwuegbunam played 22 snaps and received three targets. Calcaterra played 18 snaps and caught both his targets. Jenkins played 33 snaps and received two targets. Kevin Foelsch received 24 snaps and two targets.
Patriots (4) – Likely no Hunter Henry.
Austin Hooper received a significant amount of work in joint practice. He only played with Brissett in the first preseason game, so if Brissett is playing close to a quarter, Hooper could join him.
With Hunter Henry sidelined, TE Austin Hooper led #Patriots pass catchers with 7 catches on 13 targets (and a drawn PI) in team drills Tuesday.
“Hunter’s out, everybody else is like ‘Let’s go.’ Down a guy, everybody else gets more opportunities, more reps. It’s a great… pic.twitter.com/RinmcdXMqH
– Brian Hines (@iambrianhines) August 14, 2024
I mentioned Michael Wilcox as a possible target last week. While he only had one catch for five yards, he was targeted four times and led Patriots tight ends with 32 snaps. One of his incompletions was a catch that was successfully challenged and reversed. Three of his targets came from Zappe while the other was from Brissett. Jaheim Bell (24 snaps) was the only other Patriots tight end who received a target in the passing game.
Kickers and Defenses
One of the most important aspects of preseason DFS is the kicker and defense position, particularly in the early part of preseason. Defenses are often ahead of the offenses, and when you get second- and third-string offenses playing long periods, you get the increased possibility of turnovers.
The worst kept secret in preseason DFS is how valuable DST is on showdown slates but the gap between them and the next best position is almost hard to believe.
They score at least one DK point 95.6% of the time, WRs on the other hand reach that mark at just a 65.7% clip pic.twitter.com/mlXurvNllg
– Cody Main (@cmain7) July 22, 2024
From a roster construction standpoint, the kickers and defenses in this game need to be prioritized. The Eagles’ defense in this game gets a slight edge over the Patriots. The Patriots’ offensive line top to bottom is in shambles. During the joint practice, the Eagles were constantly disruptive to the opposing quarterbacks. The Patriots are still in the middle of a kicker competition, so it’s difficult to trust either Chad Ryland or Joey Slye.
With all that being said, below are the players that are priorities in my player pool. The “elite” options are players I’m strongly considering for the CPT/MVP slot. The “core plays” are guys who have relatively high floors but also have the potential to be in the optimal lineup. Finally, the punt plays are players who have potentially low-to-zero floors but could surprise with a big play or two.
For additional context, I am a 20-max GPP contest participant. As will be the case throughout the preseason, late-breaking news will heavily impact roster construction for these slates. I will be consistently in the FantasyPros discord channel the day of the game(s) and before lock to address any important news, inactives or roster construction. Feel free to stop by and engage with the community over there.
Elite Plays
- Javon Baker
- Ja’Lynn Polk
- Will Shipley
- Eagles D/ST
Core Plays
- Patriots D/ST
- Kenny Pickett
- Drake Maye
- Kevin Harris
- DeMario Douglas
- Johnny Wilson
- Jake Elliott
Punt Plays
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
