The wide receiver position is now firmly the “must-have” position for fantasy football rosters. As league scoring goes up across the board, fantasy leagues more heavily adopt PPR formats, and many leagues adopt yard-based bonuses. Wide receivers are becoming more valuable than ever. It’s the corollary to the running back conundrum in the NFL. More teams are using split backfields. Fewer and fewer backs are getting more than 250 touches per year. Additionally, the big money in free agency and top-end draft capital is going to wide receivers.
Consider that this season, in the top 14 of consensus average draft position (ADP) picks, eight are wide receivers. As recently as 2019, that number was just five, and the first receiver didn’t go off the board until the sixth pick. This year, no one will have any serious criticism if CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson or Amon-Ra St. Brown are taken in the first three picks in a draft. As this position becomes more and more important to fantasy managers, who are the best targets at each level of the draft?
Below are two early-round, mid-round and late-round wide receivers fantasy players who shouldn’t leave the draft without having on their roster. At different levels of fantasy football drafts, each receiver has the potential to be a league-winner in 2024.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Must-Have Wide Receivers (2024 Fantasy Football)
Early-Round Targets
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): ADP 7.3 | WR5
Why am I not panicking if I miss out on one of the consensus top-four wide receivers this year? Because the absolute elite floor and ceiling for Amon-Ra St. Brown provide an anchor around which our fantasy teams can be built. Not only did St. Brown finish third overall in fantasy points among wide receivers and fourth in points per game, but he was incredibly consistent. St. Brown missed one game all season and only had two games below 10 points in half-PPR formats.
The only players in NFL history with more receptions than Amon-Ra St. Brown in their first 3 seasons:
Justin Jefferson
Michael ThomasEnd of list.
ARSB is SPECIAL ???? pic.twitter.com/U4nhNsUPlF
– The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 31, 2023
More under the hood, St. Brown was and is elite in terms of opportunity and efficiency. He had the fourth-most red zone targets among all wide receivers (24), the second-most yards after the catch (668) and the fifth-highest target share in the league (30.5%). His 2.7 yards per route run (YPRR) was seventh among all wide receivers, despite a 7.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT) that ranked 85th at the position. He excels after the catch and is a magnet for the ball in the red zone.
Amon-Ra St. Brown can go as high as fourth overall in any kind of point per reception format, and there is clear justification for it.
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA): ADP 35.7 | WR17
Teammate Tyreek Hill is clearly a top-two wide receiver in the NFL, but can the Miami Dolphins offense actually support two top-20 receivers? Why not? The offense Miami unveiled last year was high-speed, built around getting their best players the ball in space and focused on pushing the ball downfield. If anything, Waddle’s 14.1 fantasy points per game (21st among wide receivers) was a product of him being slightly unlucky and dealing with Tua Tagovailoa‘s end-of-season inconsistency.
Jaylen Waddle on land, sea, and air pic.twitter.com/kLItwaYDtU
– Jason Sarney (@Jason_Sarney) July 30, 2024
Remember St. Brown and his seventh-most yards per route run? Want to guess who was eighth? That’s right, Jaylen Waddle, who had to also contend with Tyreek Hill, the number one overall player in YPRR. Waddle is also top-25 in target share, yards after the catch, yards per target and separation from coverage.
The only real thing dinging Waddle is his red-zone usage. With just eight targets in that area in 2023, he was 54th at the position behind players like Demarcus Robinson and K.J. Osborn. Any positive regression in that area in 2024 likely propels Waddle to top-12 status among wide receivers.
Mid-Round Targets
Chris Godwin (WR – TB): ADP 78.0 | WR33
Major touchdown regression is coming for Chris Godwin in 2024. After only two scores in 2023, countless hours of film were watched and numbers were analyzed to determine what went wrong for Godwin in 2023 (WR32 in fantasy points). After all, Baker Mayfield had a career year that allowed Mike Evans to get 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns. Why couldn’t Godwin come along for the offensive ride at the same time?
It turns out the offensive scheme the Buccaneers played last year moved Godwin way out of position for too much of the year. He played only 32% of his snaps in the slot last season when he was above 55% in both 2022 and 2021 (when he was a top-15 receiver both years). In camp this year, Godwin is already talking about how he is so happy to be back in that position under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. That way, Godwin does not have to compete with Evans on all the downfield stuff and he can own the intermediate area of the field as he did three years straight.
Rashee Rice (WR – KC): ADP 91.0 | WR37
There has been silence around the Rashee Rice legal situation for a couple of months now, and the closer we get to the regular season, it seems more and more likely Rice’s potential suspension will be pushed to later in the season, into 2025 or never comes. If we get confirmation that the latter two scenarios happen, Rice’s ADP should jump up about 60 spots. He was that dominant as a rookie in Kansas City last year, even without playing a full complement of snaps.
Rashee Rice leaping for the grab at #Chiefs training camp! pic.twitter.com/HJERC8Cnb5
– Sports Radio 810 WHB (@SportsRadio810) August 7, 2024
As a 23-year-old rookie who played just 58.6% of snaps last year (Andy Reid didn’t get the Rashee Rice Religion until later in the year), Rice commanded 102 targets and 938 receiving yards. And while those numbers are impressive, perhaps the most important part of Rice’s game came after he caught the ball. He ranked third in the NFL with 654 yards after the catch as Patrick Mahomes was able to find him in the best possible locations time and time again.
Despite the additions of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, Rice remains the top option in this wide receiver room when available. After pick 90 in drafts, it is certainly worth risking the fact that there might be a few games where you don’t have his services.
Late-Round Targets
Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF): ADP 139.7 | WR52
In case you’ve been under a rock this offseason, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are both out of Buffalo and off to new teams in the AFC South. With those two top receivers from 2023 gone, that means over 240 targets are vacated from last season. Where will they go in 2024? Tight end Dalton Kincaid is sure to make a leap and command more than his 91 last season. Rookie Keon Coleman (second-round pick) is nasty, but he is very raw and just turned 21 years old. Curtis Samuel is now in town, but I picture him to be something like what he did with Carolina in 2020 (95 targets and 41 rush attempts).
All Khalil Shakir does is get open. Shakir open in soft spot of defense near right sideline, Josh Allen lofts a pretty ball to him 20 yards for the completion. Wash, rinse, repeat #Bills #BillsMafia
– alex brasky (@alexbrasky) August 7, 2024
For those paying attention, it was clear Khalil Shakir began his breakout even before 2023 ended. In Weeks 1-14 last season, Khalil Shakir averaged 2.3 targets and 30.1 receiving yards per game. He scored one touchdown in those 14 weeks. From Weeks 15-20, he averaged five targets and 52.8 receiving yards per game. Plus, he scored two touchdowns in those late-season games.
Shakir has been a standout at camp through the first few weeks and it’s clear Josh Allen trusts him. Down past pick 130 in most drafts, don’t be surprised if Shakir leads all wide receivers in that range in fantasy points. In one of the best offenses in the league, he is an absolute steal.
Rashid Shaheed (WR – NO): ADP 154.0 | WR58
Rashid Shaheed is a player who would not have nearly the same ADP if this same piece was written three weeks from now. The reports out of camp are so glowing, and he is such a talented player, I would not be surprised if Shaheed ends up around pick 100 by the time draft season comes to a close. If the 719 yards and five touchdowns from last year don’t get you too excited, it’s understandable. This year, however, will almost assuredly be different.
The Rashid Shaheed hype is real. Kids getting rave reviews out of training camp. Watch that ADP start to rise…
– Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) August 2, 2024
Shaheed has always been one of the best deep ball receivers in the leagues. His 14.6-yard aDOT was 10th-best in the league last year and he had a 93.9% true catch rate (23rd among all receivers). The issue with Shaheed has always been consistency and the Saints’ willingness to get him the ball. That’s where the change in offensive philosophy comes in this year. For the first time since 2006, the New Orleans Saints offense will not be run by Sean Payton or Pete Carmichael Jr. Klink Kubiak, the architect of the San Francisco 49ers’ passing attack last year, is the new man in charge, and that changes everything.
Why does that personnel change matter? At 6.6 yards after the catch per reception, the San Francisco 49ers led the league in that category, beating out Kansas City and Miami. Klint Kubiak was a master at getting wide receivers and tight ends the ball in places where they could make big plays. That certainly means the Saints are going to scheme the ball more to Shaheed so he can make easier catches and burn people with his speed upfield. There may be no more valuable pick after 150 than Shaheed, so grab him at that value while you still can.
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