Must-Have Players: Anthony Richardson, Breece Hall, Chase Brown (Fantasy Football)

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players our experts are targeting below.

Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Picks

Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)

If you’re looking to shoot your shot on upside at the quarterback position in 2024, Richardson should be near the top of your draft board. What we saw in a small sample was amazing. In Richardson’s two full starts, he averaged 25.7 fantasy points per game, which, if you’re keeping score at home, is more than Josh Allen averaged last year (24.2). Richardson led all quarterbacks (minimum 80 dropbacks) in fantasy points per dropback.

Are his passing numbers worrisome? Sure. Are there some small silver linings that lead to hopeful thoughts? Yep. In his final two games, he managed at least 8.0 yards per attempt and at least a 7.1% big-time throw rate. Even if he takes a step forward as a passer, rushing will be the magic elixir that will carry Richardson in 2024. Last year, Richardson, even in the abbreviated sample, ranked fifth in rushing yards per game and third in red zone carries per game. Entering the second year in Shane Steichen’s system with Michael Pittman, Adonai Mitchell, and Josh Downs could be glorious.
– Derek Brown

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

My No.1-ranked RB in fantasy football this season is Breece Hall. If I hold a mid-first-round pick, the Jets third-year RB will almost certainly be my selection.

Through 18 weeks of NFL action, Hall finished second among all RBs in yards from scrimmage, first in receptions (76), targets, receiving yards and seventh in points per game (14.9). Don’t forget that in his final game in Week 18 of the 2023 season, Hall totaled 39 touches for 190 yards and 1 TD to snap the Jets’ losing streak to the Patriots. Hall rushed for 178 rushing yards against the No. 1 run defense in the NFL. Mic drop.

And all of his 2023 accolades came despite ranking second-to-last in rushing success rate (39.5%) on fewer than 300 touches (299, seventh). The situation was horrible, and Hall still found a way.

Keep in mind that in addition to quarterback Aaron Rodgers missing essentially the entire season, the offensive line sustained the second-most injuries. With Rodgers back under center and healthy/upgraded OL after the additions of Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson, and Olu Fashanu, the sky’s the limit for Hall’s ceiling in 2024. A reminder that he will turn 23 years old at the end of May.

The reason I prefer Hall over the other top-3 RBs – Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey – comes down to projecting health. As previously stated, the Jets are massively overdue for better injury luck in 2024. Meanwhile, the other top RBs may not be so fortunate.

The Falcons were the healthiest offense last season. Neither of their RBs missed time with injuries (Bijan’s headache game withstanding).

The 49ers were the fourth-healthiest team in 2023 – second overall on offense behind only Atlanta. For the first time in 10 seasons, they ranked above 20th in adjusted games lost – a metric to quantify losses felt by NFL injuries in a similar way to DVOA by FTN’s Aaron Schatz. McCaffrey is also coming off leading the NFL in touches. Only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top 5.
– Andrew Erickson

Chase Brown (RB – CIN)

At worst, Brown is likely to be the primary passing-down back in Cincinnati’s post-Joe Mixon backfield. But are we absolutely certain Zack Moss is going to be the main early-down back for the Bengals?

Moss was terrific for the Colts early last season while Jonathan Taylor was on injured reserve, perhaps benefitting from the rushing threat posed by QB Anthony Richardson. But from Week 6 on, Moss averaged 3.6 yards per carry and wasn’t nearly as effective. Moss has never been much of a pass catcher.

Brown looked terrific last season in a very limited role (especially as a pass catcher), and he’s capable of handling a heavy load if the Bengals determine that he’s their best RB option. Brown averaged 27.3 carries a game and 29.6 touches a game in his final college season at Illinois, finishing with 1,883 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns in 12 games.

If Brown is only a passing-down/change-of-pace back for the Bengals, he’s fairly priced at his middle-round ADP. But there’s enormous profit potential if the Bengals take a look at Moss and decide they prefer Brown, who’s younger, faster and a better pass catcher.
– Pat Fitzmaurice