MLB DFS Picks, Sleeper & Underdog Player Props: Thursday (8/22)

Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has five games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. The suggested player props from Sleeper and Underdog are also from the five-game slate.

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Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) vs. PHI
Spencer Schwellenbach has posted sterling numbers lately. According to FanGraphs, in his previous four starts spanning 25.0 innings, he's had a 2.88 ERA, 1.97 xFIP, 2.14 SIERA, 0.88 WHIP, 4.1 BB%, 37.1 K%, 34.8 CSW%, 107 Stuff+, 102 Location+, 106 Pitching+ and three quality starts.

The rookie righty doesn't have an ideal matchup. However, it's not a nightmare matchup, either. The Phillies are tied for 11th in wRC+ (102) with a 21.6 K% versus righties and 10th in wRC+ (100) with a 23.3 K% on the road this year. The Braves are slight favorites (-112), and the game's total is 8.0 runs.

Dylan Cease (SD) vs. NYM
Dylan Cease is a GPP-specific suggestion for his high ceiling. Cease has thrived in San Diego this season. In 11 starts at home, Cease has had a 3.17 ERA 3.01 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 7.6 BB%, 33.1 K% and five quality starts in 65.1 innings.

The Mets are a challenging matchup for Cease. New York is ninth in wRC+ (109) with a 21.9 K% versus righties and fourth in wRC+ (112) with a 21.5 K% at home. However, the betting info is superb. The Padres are -155, and the game's total is 7.0 runs.

Nick Lodolo (CIN) at PIT

Nick Lodolo's 7.96 ERA in his last five starts was putrid, and his 4.27 xFIP didn't inspire confidence. Nevertheless, the gap between his ERA and xFIP was notable. More importantly, Lodolo's the ideal SP2 at DK and GPP choice at FD because of his numbers on the road and his matchup.

In 11 starts on the road spanning 68.0 innings since last year, Lodolo has had a 2.91 ERA, 3.14 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, 50.0 GB%, 5.6 BB%, 30.0 K% and six quality starts. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 20th in wRC+ (97) with a 25.6 K% versus lefties and 28th in wRC+ (87) with a 23.3 K% at home. Pittsburgh was also tied for 23rd in wRC+ (89) with a 26.5 K% in the previous 14 days. Finally, the Reds are slight underdogs (+130), but the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.0 runs.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

• Home (Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/BAL -165

The Orioles have a juggernaut offense by every applicable split for tonight's game. Baltimore is tied for second in wRC+ (116) versus righties and third in wRC+ (119) at home this season. The O's were also tied for sixth in wRC+ (116) in the previous 14 days.

Baltimore's matchup is also tantalizing. Spencer Arrighetti has struggled mightily on the road. The rookie righty has had a 6.09 ERA, 4.62 xFIP and 1.63 WHIP in 11 starts on the road. Moreover, Arrighetti has allowed a .331 wOBA to lefties on the road and a .380 wOBA to righties on the road.

Core Studs

• Gunnar Henderson has hit 33 homers and stolen 15 bases with a .374 OBP, .269 ISO and 162 wRC+ in 572 plate appearances this season.
• In Anthony Santander's previous 126 plate appearances, he's hit 10 homers with a .294 OBP, .301 ISO and 127 wRC+.
• Jackson Merrill is having a dynamic rookie season, hitting 18 homers and stealing 13 bases with a .322 OBP, .200 ISO and 127 wRC+ in 466 plate appearances.

Value Plays/Punts

• Nolan Schanuel is finishing the season with a flurry. In 127 plate appearances in the second half, he's hit four homers with a .417 OBP, .163 ISO and 150 wRC+.
• Third base is an excellent position to punt tonight. Fortunately, Ramon Urias is in good form. In his last 77 plate appearances, he's hit four homers with a .325 OBP, .191 ISO and 118 wRC+.
• In Will Wagner's first 25 plate appearances in the majors, he's had a .440 OBP, .125 ISO and 182 wRC+.

Thursday's Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Gunnar Henderson: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Sleeper) (2.08x)

Gunnar Henderson: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog) (Scorcher 1.13x)

In addition to Henderson's full-season excellence, he's on a roll. In his previous 125 plate appearances, he's hit four doubles, one triple and five homers with a .275 batting average, .468 slugging and .193 ISO. Henderson's matchup is also excellent. Arrighetti has allowed 12 doubles, one triple, eight homes, a .252 batting average and .417 slugging to 267 lefties this season.

Anthony Santander: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs - Higher (Sleeper) (1.78x)

Anthony Santander: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs - Higher (Underdog)

Santander has the same cushy matchup as Henderson. The switch-hitting outfielder's power heater was highlighted above. Let's dig deeper into his recent numbers. In his past 28 games and 126 plate appearances, he's had 23 runs, 16 RBIs, a .221 batting average, .522 slugging and .301 ISO. Santander exceeded 1.5 hits plus runs and RBIs in 15 of those games.

Jackson Merrill: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs - Higher (Sleeper) (1.52x)

Jackson Merrill: 7.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog)

Instead of hitting a rookie wall, Merrill is ripping the cover off the ball down the stretch. In his past 25 games and 103 plate appearances, he's had a .355 batting average, .373 OBP, .366 ISO, 194 wRC+, six homers, three stolen bases, 21 runs and 25 RBIs. Merrill has surpassed 1.5 hits plus runs and RBIs in 19 of his last 25 games, including six straight. Finally, Luis Severino has allowed a .263 batting average, .311 OBP and .496 slugging to 149 lefties on the road this year.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.