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MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets: Sunday (8/11)

MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets: Sunday (8/11)

It’s hard to believe but we only have about a month left of baseball. Every team has fewer than 50 games remaining and it should be fun to see how things play out. We have another full Sunday card to dissect, with only three games excluded. That’s the morning matchup between the Angels and Nationals, while the Mets and Mariners play the Sunday Night game. The Rockies game is the other exclusion because they have a standalone game at 3 p.m. ET.

With that in mind, let’s dive into this Sunday slate.

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Sunday’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

PLAYER DK SALARY FD SALARY VALUE RISK
Dylan Cease (SD) at MIA $10,100 $11,100 Low Low
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs. PIT $10,400 $10,900 Low Low
Hayden Birdsong (SF) vs. DET $6,000 $8,800 High Medium
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs. OAK $8,400 $8,600 Medium Medium

Dylan Cease (SD) at MIA

Dylan Cease had a rain-shortened start against Pittsburgh earlier in the week, but he was well on his way to another masterpiece. We say that because the righty has a 0.31 ERA, 0.56 WHIP and 11.9 K/9 rate across his last five starts. A stretch like that is hard to fathom, and it’s scary that he gets a matchup with Miami. The Marlins rank 29th in runs scored, on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and wOBA. All of that has Cease entering this matchup as a -210 favorite.

Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs. PIT

It’s hard to believe Tyler Glasnow is our second-favorite pitcher on this slate, but that’s a testament to Cease. Glasnow is no joke, generating a 3.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 11.6 K/9 rate. That makes him an easy play against anyone, but Pittsburgh has been pitiful. The Pirates rank 22nd in runs scored, 25th in strikeout rate, 26th in OBP and 28th in wOBA. It’s also a revenge game for Glasnow, allowing just three hits across six one-run innings in his last matchup with Pittsburgh, entering this game as a -260 favorite.

Hayden Birdsong (SF) vs. DET

This is risky because of how bad Birdsong looked during his most recent outing, but we’ll call that a fluke. The righty hadn’t pitched in two weeks before that, providing a 2.77 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 11.3 K/ 9 rate through his first six starts. He had 45 and 58 FanDuel points in the two starts prior and could get another one of those against Detroit’s disastrous offense. The Motor City Kitties rank 20th in runs scored, 28th in OBP and 21st in strikeout rate.

Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs. OAK

Chris Bassitt has struggled recently, but we’re encouraged by what we saw earlier in the week. The righty flirted with a no-hitter against a dominant O’s lineup, and that’s more of what we’ve become accustomed to over the last few years. Bassitt had a 3.29 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the previous four years before sliding this season. We love that he has a 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at home since 2021. That should bode well against Oakland, with the A’s sitting 22nd in runs scored, 25th in OBP and 28th in strikeout rate. Bassitt also scored 46 and 52 FanDuel points in their last two matchups.

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MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Bailey Falter)

We could stack the Dodgers against anyone. Los Angeles ranks in the top five in nearly every offensive category. They should have success against Bailey Falter. The Pirates lefty had a 5.36 ERA and 1.41 WHIP last season and should regress to his 4.96 xERA in this challenging matchup. When they faced off a month ago, Falter allowed 10 baserunners and five runs across four nightmarish innings.

Houston Astros (vs. James Paxton)

The Dodgers dropped James Paxton for a reason. This guy has one of the worst walk rates in baseball, posting a 5.22 xFIP and 1.43 WHIP. Those dreadful averages won’t bode well against Houston, with the Astros sitting in the top five in nearly every offensive statistic over the last two months. That was on full display when he surrendered six runs across four innings in their last matchup.

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MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs

POS PLAYER DK SALARY FD SALARY
OF Aaron Judge (NYY) $6,800 $4,800
2B Jose Altuve (HOU) $5,300 $3,600
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) $5,400 $3,900
OF Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) $4,700 $3,500
  • Saying Aaron Judge is the best hitter would be an understatement. This guy is on another planet right now, registering a .507 OBP, .820 slugging rate (SLG) and 1.327 OPS since May 3. He’s also got the platoon advantage against Andrew Heaney, who has a 4.43 career ERA.
  • If we use the Astros as a stack, Jose Altuve needs to be one of the top options on the board. The second baseman is having another All-Star season, collecting 15 homers and 15 steals en route to a .302 batting average (AVG) and .801 OPS. He’s also been dominant against lefties throughout his career, collecting a .395 OBP and .936 OPS against southpaws since the 2021 season.
  • To say Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hot is not giving him any justice. He’s arguably the best hitter in baseball over the last month, tallying a .506 AVG, .571 OBP, 1.065 SLG and 1.636 OPS across his last 21 outings. It’s hard to believe people are still pitching to him with averages like those. We certainly don’t mind he has the platoon advantage against an atrocious A’s staff.
  • Teoscar Hernandez has been one of the best signings of the year, cleaning up in the heart of the Dodgers lineup. That will make him a key piece against Falter, posting a .344 OBP, .611 SLG and .955 OPS against lefties this year. He also comes into this matchup scorching, sporting a 1.179 OPS across his last 10 outings.

MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts

POS PLAYER DK SALARY FD SALARY
3B Alex Bregman (HOU) $4,700 $3,200
2B/SS Xander Bogaerts (SD) $4,100 $3,000
C Will Smith (LAD) $4,900 $3,200
OF Michael Conforto (SF) $4,100 $3,100
  • Alex Bregman and Altuve have been an elite stack for nearly a decade, with both bats bashing left-handers throughout their careers. The third baseman has a .367 OBP and .848 OPS against lefties throughout his career and comes into this matchup with a .830 OPS across his last 60 outings.
  • Xander Bogaerts was terrible through the opening month, but he’s been unstoppable since being activated off the injured list (IL). In 19 games since coming off the IL, Bogaerts has a .390 AVG, .500 SLG and .920 OPS. That’s the All-Star we know and love. We can’t fade him against a rookie with a 5.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
  • Most people fade catchers on DFS slates, but Will Smith is a sensational option whenever L.A. matches up with a southpaw. Not only will Smith bat either third or fourth, but he also has a .403 OBP and .954 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. Most people will pivot to Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman in a Dodgers stack, but using Smith and Hernandez is an excellent way to differentiate yourself from the field.
  • Michael Conforto hasn’t been the same player since leaving the Mets, but he still has some potential. We’ve seen flashes of that recently, providing a .548 OBP, .875 SLG, and 1.423 OPS across his last seven outings. That has him skyrocketing up the San Francisco lineup, and he’s always been much better against righties. Keider Montero is another righty he can rock, registering a 5.62 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Dylan Cease: 7.5 Strikeouts – Higher

Dylan Cease has an 11.9 K/9 rate across his last five starts and could flirt with another no-hitter because of how bad Miami has been.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a hit in every game over the last month, clearing this total in 10 of his last 13 games.

Matt Wallner: 0.5 Total Bases – Higher

Matt Wallner has a .488 OBP, .970 SLG and 1.458 OPS across his last 11 outings and a 1.116 OPS against righties.

MLB Player Prop Bet Picks


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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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