MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets: Saturday (8/17)

It’s incredible that we’re in the middle of August. That doesn’t even sound real, but the summer always flies by. That means baseball is also winding down to an end, with only a handful of weeks left in the regular season.

With that in mind, let’s look at this Saturday slate!

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• Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
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• Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Saturday’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Chris Sale (ATL) at LAA
This slate is stacked from a pitching perspective, but Sale stands out from the rest. This former Cy Young winner has returned to that form this season, sporting a 2.61 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 11.8 K/9 rate. His recent form is even more ridiculous, allowing two runs or fewer in 11 straight starts en route to a 2.15 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 12.8 K/9 rate in that span. Not to mention, LA ranks 24th in wOBA and 26th in runs scored.

Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. CWS
We had Tyler Glasnow as our second option but had to delete it after the unfortunate IL news. Brown is having a breakout season in Houston anyway, and it should continue against Chicago. Let’s start there because the White Sox rank last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. That’s bad news with the way Brown is balling, boasting a 3.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 rate across his last 20 starts! That’s why he enters this matchup as a -400 favorite!

Hayden Birdsong (SF) at OAK
It’s challenging to trust Birdsong after the last two starts, but we’re willing to overlook that. Before struggling in those two duds, Birdsong had a 2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 rate. We believe he can return to that form in a matchup against the A’s, with Oakland, ranked 24th in OBP, 25th in runs scored, and 27th in K rate.

MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks

San Diego Padres (vs. Kyle Freeland)

• Road (Coors Field)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/SD -210

It almost feels cheap to use teams against Colorado in Coors Field. Colorado already has the worst pitching staff in baseball, but that becomes a disaster since Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly park in the sport. Freeland hasn’t done anything to help those numbers, posting a 5.75 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

Houston Astros (vs. Chris Flexen)

• Home (Minute Maid Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/HOU -400

The Stros have been skyrocketing up the standings for two months now, ranked in the top five in nearly every offensive statistic in that span. That’s no surprise, considering all of the All-Stars in this lineup, and they shouldn’t have any trouble blasting Flexen. The Chicago righty has a 5.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, which is on par with his 5.02 career ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs

• Manny got off to a slow start this season, but he’s rolling right now. The third baseman has a .298 AVG, .567 SLG, and .909 OPS across his last 43 games. That looks even better since he has a .838 OPS against lefties since the start of last season! Machado has mauled Freeland throughout their careers, compiling a .385 OBP and .832 OPS in 52 at-bats against him.
• Alvarez is one of the most consistent batters ever. The big man has never finished below a .877 OPS in his six-year career, compiling a .395 OBP and .950 OPS this season. Most of that damage has happened since the opening month, maintaining a .442 OBP and 1.086 OPS across his last 70 games. That’s hard to overlook against such a rubbish righty because Yordan also bats from the left side!
• Santander is due for a big contract this offseason because he’s one of the best power hitters in the game. He has a career-high 36 bombs this year, thanks to his .344 OBP, .685 SLG, and 1.029 OPS across his last 27 games. A matchup with Brayan Bello should keep him bashing, with the righty posting a 4.97 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
• Seager goes into these stretches where he looks like one of the best hitters in baseball, and he’s in one of them right now. The shortstop has seven homers over his last 12 games, providing a 1.047 OPS in that span. That looks even better since he faces a righty with a 5.20 ERA because Seager has a .403 OBP and 1.011 OPS against righties since the start of last year!

MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts

• Yoshida hasn’t been talked about much because of a lengthy stint on the IL, but he’s quietly been outstanding since returning. The slugger has a .397 OBP and .885 OPS across his last 35 games. Yoshi has also done most of that damage against righties, amassing a .383 OBP and .827 OPS against them this season. That won’t bode well for Albert Suarez, who has accrued a 5.12 ERA and 1.53 WHIP across his last 10 starts.
• Bregman got off to a dreadful start but looks like an All-Star in the second half. The third baseman has homered in four of his last five fixtures, tallying a .302 AVG and .894 OPS across his last 66 games. Bregman has blasted Flexen throughout their careers, collecting a .476 OBP and .910 OPS in 21 at-bats against him. If Bregman is unable to go, we like Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena in this Stros stack.
• We need to find a cheaper option in this San Diego stack, and Kim should be that guy. The middle infielder has 27 homers and 60 steals since the start of last season, posting a .367 OBP and .805 OPS against left-handers. Kim also has a .455 OBP and 1.233 OPS in 22 at-bats against Freeland.
• Harris was just activated off the IL earlier in the week, and he connected on a grand slam in his first at-bat! That’s what dreams are made of, but Harris has been a fantasy stud since his call-up. Despite an injury-riddled 2023-24 season, Harris has 43 homers and 48 steals through just 321 career games. He also has a .829 OPS against righties, which is fantastic since he faces Griffin Canning‘s 5.11 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Bailey Falter: 3.5 Strikeouts – Higher

Falter has some bad strikeout stuff, but Seattle shows up to every game with at least 10 Ks in its lineup. They rank last in baseball with a 29 percent K rate, and Falter has a 4.07 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in what’s been a surprising season for the southpaw.

Yordan Alvarez: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher

Alvarez has been flirting with a .450 OBP over the last three months and shouldn’t have any issues grabbing one extra-base hit in this matchup with Flexen.

Luis Severino: 17.5 Outs Recorded – Higher

Severino faces a Miami team that ranks 29th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. That’s awesome since Severino has thrown at least five innings in all but one start en route to a 4.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He’s also completed at least 17.5 outs in all three matchups with the Marlins this year.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.