Tom Strachan | Thu, Aug 15th 2024, 7:08am EDT

Cases for WR1: CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson

It takes several key components to come together for a wide receiver to be the WR1 overall. Typically these boil down to the following;

A clear pathway to huge volume
Excellent ability to beat coverages of all types
A reliable threat in the red zone
Playing for a good offense

Occasionally we’ll see players mitigate not having one of these roles and still turn in a truly excellent season, but more often than not, this is what we’re looking for from our top-tier wide receivers. In this article, we’ll look at the top four wide receivers in average draft position (ADP) and make the cases for how they finish as the WR1 overall in fantasy football.

Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Cases for WR1

CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)

2023 got off to a slow start for the Dallas Cowboys as they installed a new offense after Kellen Moore moved on to the L.A. Chargers. Through Weeks 1-7, CeeDee Lamb was averaging 14.9 PPR points, making him the WR24 in points per game (PPG), seeing 7.0 targets per game. Then, after the Cowboys’ Week 8 bye week, everything changed. The Cowboys went from averaging 22 pass attempts per game to 24.7, but more importantly, more of them went Lamb’s direction, seeing a massive 12.6 per game. Lamb’s PPG jumped to almost double for the rest of the season (28.0), 6.9 more than the next closest receiver. Simply put, Lamb turned into a league-winner for fantasy teams.

This offseason the Cowboys have done next to nothing to upgrade their offense, bringing back Ezekiel Elliott, in place of Tony Pollard and making zero wide receiver additions of note. Lamb has no competition for a massive workload and can pay off his cost as the WR1 in ADP.

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

Unlike CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill started the season incredibly hot, and almost forced his way into MVP contention as he dominated with nine top-five weekly finishes in PPR leagues but ended the year with three bad finishes that ranked him as the WR36, WR16 and WR28, crushing fantasy managers’ playoff hopes. Part of Hill’s woes came from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who floundered whenever they came up against above-average teams.

Tagovailoa’s top seven performances came against the Broncos, Chargers, Panthers, Patriots, Commanders, Raiders and Giants, averaging 21.9 points in those games, as the Dolphins dominated weak teams. However, against the Cowboys, Ravens, Bills, Jets (twice), Chiefs, Patriots (again), Titans and Eagles, Tagovailoa never finished above QB16, averaging 12.4 points and throwing for more than one touchdown on a single occasion.

The argument for Tyreek Hill to be the WR1 overall would involve the running backs being less productive than they were in 2023 when Raheem Mostert scored 21 touchdowns after having combined for 19 across the rest of his career. If the running game regresses perhaps Hill can dominate more, but it’s worth noting that Jaylen Waddle is fully healthy after struggling with a few injuries in 2023 and we’ve seen him be a top wide receiver before. For Hill to be the WR1 overall, he’ll need Tagovailoa to be more consistent, Waddle to not take too much of a leap and the excellent Miami running game to take a step backward. That might be a little too much to ask for.

Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)

You don’t have to look too far to find plenty of hope for Ja’Marr Chase to be the WR1 overall. Our own Andrew Erickson has consistently been beating this drum over the last couple of months and there are several reasons why it could happen.

When Tyler Boyd has been off the field over the past two seasons, Chase’s targets per route run rate rose from 24.1% to 27.6%. according to Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports. Chase also benefits from playing more often in the slot when Boyd isn’t on the field, which players like Justin Jefferson and Lamb have greatly benefited from. This allows them to accumulate easy catches in addition to the high-value ones they already see.

At times Joe Burrow has struggled against two high safety formations and this forces Chase to the boundary or coming shallower towards the line of scrimmage. Bringing Chase into the slot could give defenses more matchup issues and help the Bengals. In years previous this was less of an option as Boyd was clearly suited to the slot, but now with Andrei Iosivas, Jermaine Burton and Trenton Irwin, they’re better equipped to play one of them on the outside and let Chase take the slot snaps when necessary.

The Bengals face one of the easiest strengths of schedules thanks to finishing fourth in the AFC North last year. If Burrow can stay healthy, Chase can have a shot at being the WR1 in 2024.

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)

Nothing went the way the Vikings hoped for in 2023 with severe injuries to both Kirk Cousins and T.J. Hockenson, Alexander Mattison disappointing and Justin Jefferson only managing to play 10 games. Despite this, Jefferson managed to put up 1,000 yards, playing with the likes of Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall. Over the past three seasons, Jefferson has averaged 102.3 yards per game, 0.5 touchdowns per game and 15.0 yards per reception.

If Hockenson and Jordan Addison were both to play a full 17 games it would be harder to project Jefferson to have a real chance at finishing as the WR1 overall. However, Hockenson suffered a multi-ligament knee injury in Week 16 of 2023, meaning he couldn’t have surgery till January at the earliest and will likely miss a substantial chunk of the 2024 season. There’s a chance Addison avoids a suspension for his DUI charges and instead deals with it in 2025, but we’ve also seen the NFL hand out in-season punishments for this type of offense before.

The quarterback play might be bumpy with a combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy, but this system is very QB-friendly and Justin Jefferson’s elite ability can give him a real chance to finish as the WR1 this year.

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