Third-year wide receivers are an interesting piece of the NFL puzzle as well as fantasy football. They are in a pass-obsessed league looking to prove themselves for a second contract. Some are well on their way hoping to replicate the start of their careers. Others are highly motivated to put plays on tape and increase their value to their teams. Below are wide receivers entering their third NFL seasons who are intriguing based on their current average draft position (ADP). The ADPs listed refer to the FantasyPros consensus ADP rankings.
Third-year wide receivers are an interesting piece of the NFL puzzle as well as fantasy football. They are in a pass-obsessed league looking to prove themselves for a second contract. Some are well on their way hoping to replicate the start of their careers. Others are highly motivated to put plays on tape and increase their value to their teams. Below are wide receivers entering their third NFL seasons who are intriguing based on their current average draft position (ADP). The ADPs listed refer to the FantasyPros consensus ADP rankings.
Third-Year Wide Receivers: Fantasy Football Draft Analysis
Garrett Wilson has impressed in his first two seasons, tallying 178 receptions, 2,145 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. The only knock on Wilson thus far involves efficiency. Since entering the NFL, he ranks 69th in reception rate and 72nd in success rate (more info here) among WRs with at least 100 targets.
Notably, this has come aboard a QB carousel including Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, Mike White and Joe Flacco. A healthy Aaron Rodgers in 2024 undoubtedly adds upside for Wilson in these categories and his touchdown total. Wilson offers a profound ceiling going at the one-two turn, but there are safer picks in this range including Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
Drake London has been in QB purgatory since being picked eighth overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Playing with Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, London has finished as the fantasy WR35 and WR39 in 2022 and 2023, respectively. While his ADP is a substantial leap for these finishes, the Falcons were 27th in throwing touchdowns and 28th in throwing yardage across the NFL in those two seasons.
Kirk Cousins has arrived in Atlanta and threw more touchdowns than the Falcons in only eight games a season ago, 18 to 17. With Cousins, a talented offensive line and a new coaching staff, London has fair value at the two-three turn. He has an impressive 227 targets in the last two years, converting them into over 1,700 receiving yards and six scores.
Chris Olave is a target machine. Over his first two seasons, he is 15th overall at WR in the category with 257. Production for Olave has been similar in both seasons, culminating in 2,165 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Derek Carr ranks eighth among all NFL QBs in touchdown throws since 2022, but Olave is outside the top 30 at WR in touchdowns in that stretch.
The Saints’ touchdowns through the air have not found Olave. Carr will need to find him in the end zone for the third-year WR to escape the WR19-WR25 range he has landed in to start his career. Mike Evans, Nico Collins, Deebo Samuel and Travis Kelce are all being drafted later than Olave. This group includes the fantasy WR5 and WR9 from a season ago. At least one of them should outperform Olave again.
George Pickens gets his money’s worth on his receptions. Since 2022, his 16.9 yards per catch trails only Gabe Davis among WRs with at least 100 targets. Pickens made nice progress from year one to year two, jumping from 800 receiving yards to over 1,100 on 20 additional targets. The uncertainty with Pickens ahead of 2024 involves his volume and new Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
Smith did the forenamed Drake London no favors in Atlanta, and it is hard to say what impact he will have on Pickens. For a WR that does not produce on quantity, Pickens will need to capitalize on downfield looks. Having Russell Wilson under center should help. Regardless, players are going later than Pickens who offer more upside considering the offenses they are on such as Jayden Reed, who finished as WR23 last season. Pickens finished as WR26.
Khalil Shakir is not a household name. Most fantasy managers may be unfamiliar with him due to his 65 targets since entering the NFL in 2022. However, Shakir has value going late in drafts due to Buffalo’s vacancy of targets after the 2024 offseason and what appears to be an excellent connection with his elite QB Josh Allen. Of the 65 targets he has received, Shakir has caught 49 of them, a reception rate of 75.4%.
His 15.8 yards per reception is third-best in this class of WRs since 2022 and has propelled him to 772 receiving yards — nearly half of which have come after the catch. Shakir ranks first on this list of WRs in success rate in the last two seasons at 63.1%. His receptions have been consequential and could draw Josh Allen’s attention as they redefine the throwing attack for the Bills this season.
Later rounds of a fantasy draft are great opportunities to draft players who are deep threats with high week-to-week ceilings. That is Rashid Shaheed on the button. Shaheed can take the lid off a secondary, but consistency has been the issue in his first two seasons. Since 2022, Shaheed has been the Saints’ third WR behind Chris Olave and Michael Thomas.
With Thomas out of the picture, Shaheed’s target share should increase after posting a superb 16.3 yards per reception over the last two seasons. Shaheed is highly efficient, converting 67.9% of his targets into receptions. He has nearly kept pace with Chris Olave’s touchdown total with seven scores since arriving in New Orleans. With a fantasy ADP in the 16th round, there is not much risk in grabbing someone like Shaheed, who may be a prized waiver wire add early in the 2024 season.
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