Discover a diverse range of fantasy football sleepers, from under-the-radar gems with substantial upside to late-round steals who can outperform their average draft positions. This comprehensive list of players, spanning from Round 8 into the double-digit rounds, aims to provide potential league-winning options while offering tremendous value. I selected the start of Round 8 (picks 85 and beyond in a traditional 12-team league) as my cut-off for fantasy football sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge. Let’s dive into my favorite fantasy football sleepers to draft.
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2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Draft Picks to Target
Christian Watson tallied 13 red-zone targets in just 9 games played in 2023. Watson also had a whopping 15 end-zone targets during the regular and postseason combined (6th).
The 3rd-year WR has a high ceiling when healthy as both a big-play and red-zone threat, but it cannot be realized until he solves his hamstring woes.
Offseason reports have been positive regarding Watson’s hamstrings, providing some hope that he can put it together in Year 3.
Because one cannot forget how elite Watson was as a rookie. His 26% target rate per route run was elite, ranking 17th among all WRs with at least 400 snaps. His 2.47 yards per route run ranked inside the top 10. From Week 10 through Week 18, Watson ranked first in yards per route run (2.78). Over the same span, Watson was the WR9 in both total points and on a per-game basis.
In Watson’s last 15 games in total, he still averaged 13.3 points per game – same as Ja’Marr Chase from 2023.
Per FantasyPros’ own Derek Brown (DBro), from Weeks 5-13, Watson led the team in target share (17.7%), air-yard share (36.7%), YPRR (1.79), end zone targets (14), first-read share (22.3%), and FD/RR (0.081).
In his first season, JSN managed 63 receptions from 93 targets (17.5% target share), totaling 628 yards. Smith-Njigba only scored 4 touchdowns resulting in lackluster efficiency in PPG as the WR48 overall. But it shouldn’t be forgotten that the former 1st-rounder suffered a wrist injury that contributed to his slow start. He started to hit his stride after Week 6 where he averaged 8.2 points per game. But still over this span, his route participation (74%, 50th and 64% snap share) and high-end target competition between Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf made it tough for JSN to produce. With more opportunities in 2024 at just 22 years old, Smith-Njigba is a cheap and easy breakout candidate if he can overtake one of the other Seattle WRs (most likely Lockett). He flashed his YAC-ability as a short underneath target, with the 12th-highest YAC/reception (5.9) in 2023. And when he was on the field his targets/snap were nearly identical to his two teammates. So far this offseason, the Seahawks’ training camp drum beat has been loud for JSN experiencing a true second-year breakout under new OC Ryan Grubb.
In 2023, Trevor Lawrence ranked first in the NFL in expected passing yards per game (260). The offense ranked 4th in pass rate over expectation (2.8%). This offense is going to throw. A lot. With big-play threats such as Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis entering the fold, we could see Lawrence throw for a boatload of yards in 2024. The AFC South is going to be a shootout after a shootout. Buy Lawrence as the QB16 in ADP – a total of 8 spots down from his 2023 ADP.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguarshttps://t.co/3vqzbRSIv8
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 9, 2024
Pat Freiermuth was 27th in points per game during the regular season (5.1) in 12 games and 5.5 points per game, including the postseason. He hardly moved the needle despite ranking 16th in route participation. He dealt with injuries, and the Steelers offense wasn’t good enough to support three viable pass-catchers, plus the RBs. However, it wasn’t all bad. His three spiked weeks suggest he can still deliver when called upon. There’s only a handful of tight ends capable of a 9-120 stat line on 11 targets with Kenny Pickett at QB. His 2023 TE29 finish is the worst of his career, after finishing as the TE8 and TE13 the two previous seasons. Smells like an outlier for a young, uber-talented tight end with draft capital (former 55th overall pick). Now is a great opportunity to buy the dip on the 25-year-old in a contract year with a better QB in Pittsburgh. And although many hate Steelers OC Arthur Smith, he has always featured tight ends in his offense (at least from a target perspective). The Falcons ranked third in targets to tight ends in 2023. And there’s been a constant stream of positivity out of the Steelers’ camp of Freiermuth being an integral part of the new-look 2024 Steelers offense.
when you don't get an "elite" tight end
MUTH???? pic.twitter.com/KqDDAwyc9N
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 9, 2024
List of RBs with a higher yards per carry than Dobbins over the last 2 seasons: De’Von Achane.
The talent is there with J.K. Dobbins and the market has recognized it. The last time Dobbins returned from a season-long injury (2022 season) he was drafted as the RB23. 54th overall. 48th overall in 2023. RB31 in 2020. Now he’s a double-digit pick well outside the top 100.
In Dobbins’ last five games, including the playoffs at the end of the 2022 season, he averaged an impressive 6.6 yards per carry, 92 rushing yards, and 14 carries per game.
Gus Edwards entered the Chargers offseason banged up and there has been zero buzz around rookie Kimani Vidal since he was drafted.
Meanwhile, Greg Roman has been saying all the right things about Dobbins, calling him a huge asset. When Roman coached both Edwards and Dobbins during his time spent in Baltimore, Dobbins was also viewed as the clear-cut starter above Edwards.
Neal ElAttrache did Dobbins’ Achilles surgery and has spoken glowingly about him. The same guy who did Cam Akers…when he came back in the same year. It took some time, but Akers did lead the NFL in rushing the last 6 weeks of the 2022 season…after the torn Achilles. After Akers tore his right Achilles, he tore his left Achilles at the start of November. He played in the 2024 Hall of Fame Game for the Houston Texans, 9 months later. Dobbins is approaching nearly 12 months from his tear.
Last point. NFL’s Daniel Jeremiah is super plugged into the Ravens and Chargers. He did not hold back regarding Dobbins as the back-to-own for fantasy football in LA’s backfield in a Move The Sticks podcast summer episode.
J.K. Dobbins pic.twitter.com/GYNzqjw1eg
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 3, 2024
It remains to be seen whether Rico Dowdle can usurp Ezekiel Elliott as the Dallas RB1, but the early training camp reports have been glowing about the 5th-year RB. He’s looked explosive and the team knows that he can offer more juice than Zeke. Dowdle was ninth in yards per touch and 18th in juke rate last season. Now it’s just a matter of getting those red-zone touches over Elliott. So far throughout the summer, Dowdle has gotten extensive looks in high-leverage situations per the Athletic.
Jon Machota of the Athletic also writes that Dowdle is the in-house ‘favorite’ to lead the Cowboys in rushing.
Bo Nix‘s projected No. 1 check-down option in the passing game. Jaleel McLaughlin looks to be that GUY in 2024. Sean Payton’s offenses love throwing to RBs so I expect McLaughlin to be a PPR machine in addition to whatever he can add as a rusher. Last season as an undrafted free agent, McLaughlin made a case to be the No. 2 RB in Mile High. He was super-efficient as a rookie finishing second in the NFL in yards per carry at 5.4. Per FantasyPros’ own Derek Brown (DBro), McLaughlin ranked 14th in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, fourth in yards after contact per attempt, and fourth in yards per route run.
Denver made it a point to get him involved in the passing game when he was on the field, as he also ranked first in targets per route run (44%) ahead of Chase Brown (43%) and Javonte Williams (37%).
Adonai Mitchell had a standout season with the Texas Longhorns, achieving a 32% dominator rating with 11 touchdowns from 55 receptions. Standing at 6’2″ and weighing 205 pounds, his physique is well-suited for an outside receiver role. While he boasts the physical tools and deep threat potential akin to D.J. Chark Jr. or Alec Pierce, the Colts second-rounder enters a situation where he may play third fiddle behind Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. This could limit his weekly fantasy production, although his knack for big plays makes him a worthy consideration in best-ball formats, offering occasional high-scoring outings. But Mitchell has a golden opportunity for more spiked week potential early on in the 2024 season, given the ankle injury to Downs. The rookie WR is worth drafting and rostering to see how things shake out to open the year for this exciting Colts offense. As an explosive vertical threat, Mitchell’s game could translate well to second-year QB Anthony Richardson‘s big arm.
Keep in mind that you shouldn’t overdraft Mitchell. He is still competing with Alec Pierce for that perimeter role opposite Michael Pittman Jr. We could see the Colts use rookie 5th-rounder, Anthony Gould, as the No. 1 slot. The speedy Oregon State WR ran a sub 4.4 at the NFL Combine and offers high-end special teams skills.
Michael Wilson‘s impressive performance in Week 18 showcased his potential in the Arizona Cardinals’ passing game. With a 21% target share, he hauled in all 6 of his targets for 95 yards, demonstrating his reliability and big-play ability. Wilson’s consistent involvement in the offense, evidenced by running routes on 80% of dropbacks (35th among all WRs), solidifies his role as a full-time contributor moving forward, as the clear-cut No. 2 WR behind rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. Wilson’s strong finish to the season, averaging 15.5 fantasy points per game in the absence of Marquise Brown, further underscores his value and potential impact in the Cardinals’ aerial attack in 2024. He won’t be the No. 1 with MHJ and Trey McBride on the roster, but he should still be viewed as a clear notch ahead of Zay Jones and slot wide receiver, Greg Dortch.
Devin Singletary is by far the weakest veteran RB any of these Day 3 rookie RBs are competing for touches/snaps with. Singletary does everything right but doesn’t “wow” coaches on the field. Therefore, Giants 5th-round pick Tyrone Tracy could be an upside play in the Giants’ backfield should Singletary flounder with the starting gig. Keep in mind that in Tracy’s first year playing RB at Purdue after switching from WR, he led his draft class in yards after contact per attempt. He could be the Giants’ RB1, or he could be completely nothing given his inexperience at the position. Although training camp reports have been glowing regarding Tracy’s pass-catching chops, music to my ears for an offense that is in desperate need of playmakers.
Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
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