This article aims to identify players and situations with the most uncertainty entering Week 1. Knowing these players will help us hone in on which usage to pay the closest attention to and whether to treat it as gospel or dismiss it as noise. Below you’ll find breakdowns of each position and some players that have the most to gain (or lose) from usage early on in the season.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Week 1 Situations to Monitor
It’s only one week. Yes, but it’ll be the first week we’ve had new NFL data since mid-February. After Week 1 concludes, the fantasy football world starts to analyze, dissect and decode the new data we’ve been graced with to answer one question: Does it matter? Of course it matters — all data is good data (well, most of the time, that is). But, the challenge becomes identifying what data suggests we should move off of our pre-season priors and adjust players based on just one (or two) weeks of usage.
Last year, Puka Nacua was going undrafted in a lot of leagues. Then, he grabbed everyone’s attention by getting 15 targets, catching 10 of those targets for 119 receiving yards. He eventually went on to break the rookie record for receiving yards. If we look back, though, he had a very fluid situation that should have called for a quicker adjustment to his rest-of-season standing in fantasy football rankings rather than how he was being treated during draft season.
First, he was a rookie. Usage for rookies is difficult to project, especially those drafted outside of the first couple of rounds, according to average draft position (ADP). Second, and more importantly, Cooper Kupp wasn’t in the mix (until Week 5, that is). While Nacua’s usage certainly shifted with Kupp’s return, he had enough time to cement his role in the offense and continue to go gangbusters for those who scooped him up off of the waiver wire following his first game. This analysis comes with loads of hindsight bias, but when that happens we should do our best to learn from it.
Running Backs
Rico Dowdle was poised to be the primary back for the Dallas Cowboys when they didn’t take a running back in the 2024 NFL Draft. That lasted all but three days when they made a move to reunite with Ezekiel Elliott on May 1st.
The last time we saw Elliott in Dallas, he (frustratingly) got 231 carries, leaving Tony Pollard in a 1B role. Now, however, Elliott will be entering his age-29 season, he’s coming off of a brutally inefficient season and Pollard is gone.
Everything about Dowdle’s situation is the same as last year, but you’re replacing Pollard with Elliott, which is about as big of a downgrade as you could make. But, there’s a chance nostalgia comes into play with Elliott’s past performance on the team and he continues to steal 8-10 touches per game. That said, if I see positive signs in Week 1 that Dowdle is going to get at least 65% of the touches and snaps, I’ll be rapidly moving him up rest-of-season fantasy football rankings.
It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster training camp and preseason for Kimani Vidal, to put it lightly. But, if you want to find someone who has a wide-open opportunity all you have to do is look at the very bottom of the chart above where he sits at RB60 by expert consensus rankings (ECR). Vidal joins a trio of backs including Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins who will be playing for the Chargers for the first time this year. They’re all set to replace the massive hole Austin Ekeler left behind.
This new backfield rotation is unique in the sense that Greg Roman (the Chargers’ new offensive coordinator) called plays for the Ravens when Edwards and Dobbins were on that team as well. So, there’s a chance he favors them over Vidal early on. It should also be noted the Chargers have a top-five offensive line in the league. Any running back getting significant carries behind that group will have an opportunity to be efficient.
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) & Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)
I’m using this to talk about the two Bears running backs who are set to lead the backfield in touches, D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert. This offseason, the Bears signed Swift to a three-year, $24 million contract. That included $14 million guaranteed, which is the eighth-most among all running back contracts at this time. So, if we follow the money, then Swift should get a large share of the workload.
Nevertheless, Herbert played well last year, ranking 17th among running backs in rushing yards over expected per carry at 0.3. So, logically (though we should never assume logical coaching), Herbert has played himself into having a solid role in the offense. We also shouldn’t forget about Roschon Johnson, who played primarily as a change-of-pace back last year and will siphon touches from both Swift and Herbert.
The final complicating factors are twofold. First, the Bears will be led by Caleb Williams. Second, Chicago hired Shane Waldron to call plays on offense. Last year, Chicago’s -4.5% pass rate over expectation (PROE) ranked 27th. Increasing that to even league-average will further limit touches for the backfield as a whole. This could be a messy situation. If by some miracle we get the sense this won’t be a complete timeshare, I’ll be ready to jump early on targeting whichever back separates himself, but odds are any fantasy-relevant back will need to thrive off of efficiency.
Wide Receivers
One of the more polarizing players in fantasy football this year is George Pickens. Target-hog Diontae Johnson is now on the Panthers, leaving Pickens to assume the WR1 role in the Steelers’ offense. There’s more than just Johnson’s absence changing Pickens’ situation as he’ll also have a new quarterback. At this point, Russell Wilson has all but won the starting quarterback job. Unfortunately, (for Pickens) Wilson failed to support a wide receiver ranked inside the top 30 in fantasy points per game last season.
I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention the fact Arthur Smith, every fantasy manager’s favorite play-caller, is now the offensive coordinator for the Steelers. While Drake London earned his fair share of targets with Smith calling plays, leave it to Smith to be the one to funnel targets to less-talented players.
Finally, Pickens’ outlook will change should the Steelers complete a trade to acquire Brandon Aiyuk (a rumor that has recently cooled off). But, I would still have Pickens on this list as that transaction would only muddy things even more. We’ve seen Pickens’ weekly range of floor and ceiling outcomes in his first two seasons, so I’ll be tracking his usage early on to see if that floor will be raised.
Though he finished as the WR17 in half-PPR leagues, Calvin Ridley had a relatively disappointing season in his first year back following a suspension. After that one year in Jacksonville, he’s now moved on to a division rival in the Tennessee Titans where he’ll slot in as one of Will Levis‘ primary targets. Levis has a play style that will inherently introduce variance from a production standpoint, but this article is geared towards focusing on player usage. That said, it’s possible having a new offensive coordinator changes that, which is something I’ll be closely paying attention to.
DeAndre Hopkins‘ injury status complicates things because if Hopkins isn’t able to play in Week 1 (though the reports have been positive), we may not get a full understanding of how Ridley’s rest-of-season usage might play out. Ridley will be turning 30 later this season, so the odds of him returning to his pre-suspension efficiency are low. However, if the usage is there out of the gate, I’ll be comfortable with him as a solid WR3.
In his sixth year in the league, Terry McLaurin is one of the lone bright spots on the Commanders’ offense. He, along with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, will be the key to Washington’s passing attack being competent. Daniels also has a chance to be the best quarterback McLaurin has played with as most of his former quarterbacks are now out of the league or in backup roles.
Last week, Washington also traded away third-year receiver and former first-round pick Jahan Dotson. With Dotson gone, McLaurin is now the best pass-catching weapon on this offense by a long shot. The question is whether he will (pardon me) command the 30% target share that he deserves or not. A lot of that also hinges on the offense Kliff Kingsbury, Washington’s offensive coordinator, implements. Regrettably, the outlook isn’t great. Ideally, McLaurin’s talent wins out, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers has about everything that makes for an unknown situation. The Raiders have a new quarterback in Gardner Minshew, Luke Getsy is now calling plays and they have a steady circulation of potential targets. Not to mention, Bowers was drafted 11th overall as the highest-drafted rookie tight end since Kyle Pitts.
Davante Adams will also be turning 32 towards the end of the regular season and, while he’s a very solid player, Jakobi Meyers doesn’t have the same target gravity other players do. Because of this, I think Bowers has one of the higher ceilings for tight ends going in this range. If we get early indication he’ll be used often, I will be doing what I can to get him on as many teams as possible.
The bull case for Noah Fant is primarily around the coaching changes that happened in Seattle. Shane Waldron (as mentioned, now the offensive coordinator for the Bears) was well known for deploying a rotation at tight end and utilizing multiple tight ends at a high rate. While the number of vacated targets Seattle has isn’t large, they all come from tight ends Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly leaving the team. If you go with the tight end streaming approach in your league this year, Fant is someone I’m keeping a close eye on.
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