In fantasy football, managers seek consistency within an inconsistent game. With QB being a premier fantasy position, selecting one in a season-long format is ample to the outlook of a lineup. Below are tiers of fantasy QBs based on consistency in fantasy point production from 2021-2023. All average draft positions (ADPs) listed refer to FanatsyPros’ consensus ADP rankings. The table below outlines the statistics used. For more info on standard deviation, click here.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Quarterback Consistency Production From 2021 to 2023
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) | ADP: 69.7
Dak Prescott is not a dual-threat QB, but his arm talent stabilizes his fantasy production. He comes in fifth at QB in fantasy points per game and fantasy points per season since 2021. Last season yielded an NFL-leading 36 touchdown throws from Prescott, and he was third in passing yardage, eclipsing the 4,500-yard mark. Prescott is friendly for managers investing in skilled players and unwilling to pay up for an elite QB. He has a low ADP and a high upside.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) | ADP: 60.3
Joe Burrow ranks sixth at QB in fantasy points scored over the past three seasons. Without an injury-riddled 2023, he would have likely cracked the top four. In only 10 games last year, Burrow threw 15 touchdowns and carried a completion percentage of 67%. Word out of camp is both he and Ja’Marr Chase are healthy. Burrow is a promising fantasy draft pick considering his price and ceiling in 2024.
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) | ADP: 67.0
Kyler Murray is similar to Lamar Jackson — he scores fantasy points when he is on the field. Murray is fifth among QBs since 2021 in fantasy points per game at 19.62. He has played in 33 of the maximum 50 games in those seasons. A bounce-back year for Murray could mangle his current ADP in the sixth or seventh round.
Quarterback Consistency Stats (2021 – 2023)
| Name | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Games Played | Total | Average/Season | Average/Game | Standard Dev/Season |
| Josh Allen | 402.6 | 395.5 | 392.6 | 50 | 1190.7 | 396.9 | 23.81 | 5.14 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 361.7 | 416.9 | 280.2 | 50 | 1058.8 | 352.9 | 21.18 | 68.77 |
| Jalen Hurts | 312.2 | 378 | 356.8 | 47 | 1047 | 349.0 | 22.28 | 33.59 |
| Justin Herbert | 380.8 | 280.3 | 233.7 | 47 | 894.8 | 298.3 | 19.04 | 75.18 |
| Dak Prescott | 320.6 | 198.6 | 342.8 | 45 | 862 | 287.3 | 19.16 | 77.64 |
| CJ Stroud | – | – | 275 | 15 | 275 | 275.0 | 18.33 | – |
| Joe Burrow | 314.2 | 350.7 | 147.2 | 42 | 812.1 | 270.7 | 19.34 | 108.50 |
| Lamar Jackson | 240 | 236.1 | 331.2 | 40 | 807.3 | 269.1 | 20.18 | 53.82 |
| Jared Goff | 194.5 | 283.8 | 289.1 | 48 | 767.4 | 255.8 | 15.99 | 53.15 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 199 | 295.6 | 262.5 | 50 | 757.1 | 252.4 | 15.14 | 49.09 |
| Kirk Cousins | 300.3 | 291.6 | 149.7 | 41 | 741.6 | 247.2 | 18.09 | 84.55 |
| Russell Wilson | 242.8 | 225.3 | 256.9 | 44 | 725 | 241.7 | 16.48 | 15.83 |
| Derek Carr | 257 | 219.1 | 241.1 | 49 | 717.2 | 239.1 | 14.64 | 19.03 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 180.9 | 230.9 | 270.4 | 43 | 682.2 | 227.4 | 15.87 | 44.85 |
| Matthew Stafford | 329.7 | 108.4 | 243.1 | 41 | 681.2 | 227.1 | 16.61 | 111.52 |
| Justin Fields | 126.8 | 296 | 230.2 | 40 | 653 | 217.7 | 16.33 | 85.29 |
| Kyler Murray | 300.5 | 200.5 | 146.4 | 33 | 647.4 | 215.8 | 19.62 | 78.18 |
| Geno Smith | 54.3 | 303.9 | 226.8 | 36 | 585 | 195.0 | 16.25 | 127.80 |
| Baker Mayfield | 180.9 | 121.4 | 274.1 | 43 | 576.4 | 192.1 | 13.40 | 76.97 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 332.8 | 239.2 | 0 | 34 | 572 | 190.7 | 16.82 | 171.63 |
| Daniel Jones | 167 | 289 | 57 | 33 | 513 | 171.0 | 15.55 | 116.05 |
| Jordan Love | 21.1 | 11.7 | 319.1 | 27 | 351.9 | 117.3 | 13.03 | 174.83 |
| Gardner Minshew | 33.7 | 36.8 | 196.2 | 25 | 266.7 | 88.9 | 10.67 | 92.94 |
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