The FantasyPros consensus projections are an excellent tool for fantasy managers to gauge median outcomes for players. They provide essential insight regarding each player’s expected production levels for the 2024 season.
That being said, each NFL season brings its share of surprises. Injuries, off-field scandals and unpredictable depth charts are just a few factors that can affect player performance. Given this inherent unpredictability, some projections may turn out to be inaccurate. The following list highlights wide receivers who, in my estimation, are most likely to deviate from their projections by the end of the 2024 season.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Projections
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)
The FantasyPros consensus projections have DK Metcalf accumulating 73.9 receptions for 1,069.6 yards across the 2024 season. Metcalf will re-assume his role as the Seahawks’ alpha wide receiver in what figures to be a proficient passing attack under Ryan Grubb. With question marks surrounding the other pieces in this offense, his volume upside is higher than it’s ever been. Expect Metcalf to vastly outproduce his current projections.
The arrival of new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will do wonders for Metcalf’s production. During his tenure as the Washington Huskies’ OC, Grubb orchestrated one of the most devastating passing attacks in all of college football. The team ranked fourth in Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass grade in 2023. Despite the team boasting several NFL-caliber pass-catchers, Rome Odunze was the undisputed WR1 in this offense. The latter was peppered with volume as he accumulated an absurd 1,325 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Operating in a similar role in 2023, Metcalf is primed to produce at a high level.
The eye test would suggest Metcalf has the talent to make the most of this opportunity. It’s hard to not notice his sheer athleticism and big-play ability. What’s more, his statistical profile would further indicate he’s among the league’s best at the WR position. Among WRs with at least 100 targets, he ranked fourth in yards per reception and eighth in yards after catch per reception, per PFF.
From a counting statistics perspective, Tyler Lockett has always been a thorn in Metcalf’s side. The veteran has continued to take targets away from him as the Seahawks’ primary possession receiver. At 31 years of age, Lockett’s best days are clearly behind him. He’ll continue to see fewer and fewer looks as age and attrition start catching up to him. It’s also important to note that, while not deemed serious, Lockett is currently dealing with a leg injury.
Some Seahawks injury notes
Tyler Lockett dealing with a leg injury that Mike Macdonald indicated isn’t serious
Zach Charbonnet dealing with some tightness, didn’t practice.
Noah Fant was limited but MM didn’t specify
Dre’Mont Jones tweaked something, but not serious, per MM
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) August 14, 2024
Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
Rashee Rice is currently being projected to produce 75.7 receptions and 898.0 receiving yards in 2024. Rice’s legal situation remains quiet, and it’s looking increasingly likely the sophomore WR will not be suspended this season. Assuming Rice isn’t forced to miss time, he will produce far beyond the lines currently being set for him.
As is the case with most rookies, it took a few weeks for Rice to come into his own at the NFL level. By Week 7, he was integrated as a full-time starter in the Chiefs’ high-powered offense. From then on, he emerged as a fantasy revelation. He averaged 5.8 receptions and 69.3 receiving yards during that span. This put him on a 17-game pace for 98.6 receptions and 1,178.1 receiving yards.
Rookie WR’s with 75+ receptions & 900+ yards in the past decade:
⁃ OBJ
⁃ MT
⁃ Jefferson
⁃ ARSB
⁃ Waddle
⁃ Chase
⁃ Garrett Wilson
⁃ PukaAND…
⁃ Rashee Rice ????
No suspension in sight. Hollywood already hurt.
WR28 in PPG as a ROOKIE.
WR34 ADP this year.
SMASH. pic.twitter.com/I7HFyewjmz
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) August 15, 2024
Rice’s efficiency metrics were equally as impressive. According to PFF, he led all rookie WRs in receiving grade and yards after catch per reception. His 2.39 yards per route run was second only to Puka Nacua.
The additions of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy do not pose realistic threats to Rashee Rice’s volume. For one, Marquise Brown is already struggling with an injury that figures to keep him out for the next couple of weeks. The veteran has failed to be a consistent producer across his injury-riddled career. On the other hand, Xavier Worthy was brought in to inherit the field-stretching role. He will not interfere with Rice’s targets closer to the line of scrimmage. According to PFF, Rice had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 5.2 yards in his rookie season.
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
The FantasyPros experts are projecting 94.6 receptions and 1,297.2 receiving yards for Puka Nacua in 2024. The sophomore WR has battled injury throughout this year’s training camp, adding to the long list of ailments he’s suffered across his collegiate/professional career. What’s more, Cooper Kupp figures to play a crucial role in this offense. I’d argue Nacua’s projections are well too bullish.
His talents are undeniable. He’s coming off a record-breaking rookie season where he eclipsed 100 receptions and 1,400 receiving yards. Among WRs with at least 100 targets, he ranked seventh in yards per route run and fourth in yards after the catch per reception, PFF.
The caveat to Nacua’s 2023 production is that it coincided with an injury-riddled season for Cooper Kupp. Kupp dealt with hamstring and ankle issues and never fully returned to 100% throughout the season. Despite playing through lingering ailments, Kupp showed encouraging signs, earning 5.6 yards after the catch per reception and 1.86 yards per route run, per PFF.
Had Kupp played a healthy 17-game season, Nacua’s counting statistics would have looked drastically different. Reports have emerged that the Rams offense has heavily featured Kupp thus far in training camp. Expect a decrease on the 153 targets Nacua saw in 2023.
WR Cooper Kupp is “all the way back” to full health and the Rams offense “clearly runs through” Kupp, per ESPN’s @JFowlerESPN pic.twitter.com/lBGPBYnGKh
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) August 3, 2024
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
Zay Flowers is projected to tally 79.6 receptions for 965.1 receiving yards in 2024. After a promising rookie season, the experts are forecasting a rise in Flowers’ production. That being said, I’m skeptical about the sophomore wideout’s chances of enjoying a true breakout season. With increased target competition and a larger emphasis on the run game in Baltimore, Flowers will finish below these projections.
In 2023, Flowers operated as the primary pass-catcher for the majority of the season. In what was an injury-plagued season for Mark Andrews, the Ravens were forced to give Flowers all the volume he could handle. He produced 77 receptions and 858 receiving yards with this opportunity.
That being said, a healthy Mark Andrews will usurp all of the remaining pass-catchers in this offense. He’s consistently been Lamar Jackson‘s most trusted target. Before last season, Andrews had earned at least 110 targets in consecutive seasons.
The team invested a two-year, $16 million contract in perennial superstar RB Derrick Henry. John Harbaugh’s course of action has always been the run game. With Derrick Henry now in the fold, expect the Ravens to run the ball at an exceptionally high rate in 2024.
All signs point towards a decrease in volume for the sophomore wideout. His pedestrian efficiency metrics, such as his 1.64 yards per route run and his PFF receiving grade of 73.9, aren’t encouraging signs either.
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