Fantasy Football Projections: Running Backs Over/Under Picks (2024)

Fantasy football projections are, along with cheat sheets and mock drafts, one of the more useful tools a fantasy manager has at their disposal. They provide crucial context regarding the most likely outcome in terms of a player’s volume and production. With each passing year, the models used to generate these fantasy football projections become more and more accurate as the amount of available data grows.

The main caveat is that fantasy football projections fail to fully capture a player’s upside and downside. Projected values represent the median of all possible outcomes for the upcoming season. In other words, these numbers depict a player’s production assuming everything goes according to plan.

In a sport as erratic as football, things rarely go according to plan. Injuries and unpredictable volume distributions are inevitable and thus, fantasy football projections may sometimes be inaccurate. The following list contains running backs whose current fantasy football projections might prove to be imprecise by the end of the 2024 season.

Fantasy Football Running Back Projections

Josh Jacobs (GB – RB)

The FantasyPros consensus projections have Josh Jacobs totaling 249.6 carries and 1,034.9 rushing yards in 2024. Given the player’s decline in efficiency and competition for carries in this backfield, Jacobs will finish well below this line.

By all accounts, 2023 was a disastrous season for Josh Jacobs. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), his run grade of 70.1 ranked 40th among 49 RBs with at least 100 carries. He had career lows in yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced and explosive runs. While these struggles may partially be attributed to the ineffective offensive system in Las Vegas, some of the onus has to fall on Jacobs’ shoulders.

Heading into his sixth season as a pro, it’s fair to question whether Jacobs’ intense workload has started to take a toll. Across five seasons, he’s accumulated an absurd 1,305 rushing attempts as the Raiders’ bell cow. Head coach Matt LaFleur, who’s notorious for the RB-by-committee approach, will be much more reluctant to give Jacobs this level of volume.

The likes of MarShawn Lloyd and A.J. Dillon both figure to play sizable roles in this backfield. The Packers invested third-round draft capital on Lloyd in the 2024 NFL draft. During his final season at USC, the former Trojan earned a notable PFF run grade of 86.0. He continues to impress in training camp:

Packers rookie RB Marshawn Lloyd rips off a big 50yd run in practice! ???? pic.twitter.com/teytD1KutR

— Alexander Basara (@Basaraski) August 1, 2024

On the other hand, Dillon has been a staple in LaFleur’s scheme. He’s earned a minimum of 178 carries in each of the three previous seasons. Given his familiarity with the offense, it’s unlikely Dillon is completely phased out of this backfield.

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

De’Von Achane is currently projected to total 174.9 carries and 906.1 rushing yards in 2024. Taking the over on these lines is simply a bet on Achane’s health. If the sophomore RB manages to play the majority of games in 2024, he will far exceed these tallies.

Achane fell just short of this line last season, where he accumulated 804 rushing yards on a mere 102 carries. While this sort of efficiency is due for regression with increased volume, it certainly bodes well for Achane’s hopes at a break-out season. Among RBs with at least 100 carries, he ranked first in run grade, yards after contact per attempt and elusive rating, per PFF.

With a year of experience under his belt, an increase in usage is imminent for Achane. Expect the carry distribution between Mostert and Achane to skew more heavily in the latter’s favor. It’s also important to note Raheem Mostert has carried the “injury prone” tag his entire career. A 32-year-old RB with a lengthy injury history is extremely unlikely to play a full 17 games. If and when an injury to Mostert occurs, Achane would inherit an increased workload.

The bottom line is that Achane is an explosive player who has multiple avenues to see an increase in touches in 2024. An extra 50-75 carries is all Achane would need to far surpass the line of 906.1 rushing yards.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS)

It appears as though Austin Ekeler‘s arrival in Washington has dampened many experts’ views on Brian Robinson Jr.’s 2024 outlook. He’s currently projected to finish with 184.3 carries and 774.1 rushing yards. As the RB1 in what should be a much-improved offense, Robinson is primed for much more production this upcoming season.

Robinson’s rushing volume will not be impacted by the addition of Ekeler in this backfield. At this stage of their respective careers, there’s no question Robinson is the more effective ball-carrier. In 2023, he outperformed his running mate in terms of run grade, yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles forced, per PFF. The Commanders’ first preseason game provided further insight into the distribution of carries. With starter Jayden Daniels under center, Robinson carried the ball five times, while Ekeler was limited to just two touches.

It’s easy to draw comparisons between this Kliff Kingsbury-led offense and that of the Arizona Cardinals in 2020. The Cardinals RB room boasted an interesting one-two punch consisting of Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. This tandem effectively complemented QB Kyler Murray‘s explosiveness as a rusher. In Washington, Robinson will assume the role of the early-down bruiser back and is likely to benefit from improved running lanes with Daniels at QB. In a similar role in 2020, Drake eclipsed 900 rushing yards and scored 10 touchdowns on the ground.

The Commanders added several pieces to address their porous defensive unit from last season. Free agency signings Dorance Armstrong, Bobby Wagner, Jeremy Chinn and Frankie Luvu are poised to be key contributors to this much-improved unit. Assuming this defense can hold its own and limit opposing offenses, game scripts will be in Robinson’s favor. This will inevitably lead to an increase in the 178 carries he had in 2023.

Rachaad White (RB – TB)

Rachaad White is currently projected to produce 926.6 rushing yards on 239.0 carries. White has always been a volume-based fantasy profile. On a per-touch basis, he continues to perform at a sub-par level. It’s fair to question whether the Buccaneers staff will eventually grow impatient with White’s inefficiencies and allocate their carries elsewhere. For this reason, White’s projections are too bullish.

Is Rachaad White about to be a huge fantasy football bust? ???? pic.twitter.com/ClygLg6Ln7

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) February 22, 2024

White failed to make much of an impact with all the volume he received in 2023. Among 23 RBs with at least 200 rushing attempts, he ranked 22nd in run grade, 20th in yards after contact per attempt and 17th in explosive runs, per PFF. He failed to make the most of his opportunity in Dave Canales’ fruitful rushing attack.

Tampa Bay’s offensive line is currently ranked 17th by PFF. White will struggle to produce big plays behind this underwhelming line that will struggle to consistently create running lanes. It’s entirely plausible OC Liam Coen abandons the run and shifts his focus to the passing game. We saw Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans enjoy some of their best football during the 2023 season. Coen’s upbringing under Sean McVay would suggest he’s capable of creating an explosive pass-first offensive scheme.

Articles Fantasy Draft Advice NFL Josh Jacobs MarShawn Lloyd A.J. Dillon De’Von Achane Raheem Mostert Brian Robinson Jr. Austin Ekeler Jayden Daniels Kenyan Drake Chase Edmonds Kyler Murray Dorance Armstrong Bobby Wagner Jeremy Chinn Frankie Luvu Rachaad White Baker Mayfield Mike Evans