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Fantasy Football Overvalued Picks: Jordan Love, Kenneth Walker, James Cook

With the Fantasy Football Expo in the rearview mirror from Canton, Ohio, and draft season upon us, managers must put in the time and effort to get a leg up on their competition. Regardless of which platform you use as your host provider (ESPN, Yahoo!, Sleeper, RealTime Fantasy, etc.), an easy task that pays immediate dividends is acclimating yourself to the default rankings and seeing where value or potential pitfalls lie.

Each hosting provider differs slightly in how they evaluate players, creating opportunities to exploit. Understanding these differences can give you a significant competitive advantage when going against competition that relies upon average draft position (ADP) or website-generated rankings.

Most recently, I looked at RealTime Fantasy Sports (RTS for short) and compared their updated 2024 draft rankings to our expert consensus rankings (ECR) at FantasyPros. Their rankings can be found here. There were some interesting differences worth noting, especially about players who had a much higher grade than other providers. RTS isn’t afraid to be bold about endorsing breakout calls, to be sure.

2024 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT KIT

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: RTS Leagues

Quarterbacks

Unlike ESPN, which tends to devalue the position, RTS emphasizes the importance of having a strong signal-caller under center. Of the websites I’ve reviewed so far this offseason, they have most clearly mirrored ECR in terms of placement. Their position-specific rankings significantly differed from ours, most notably with these examples:

Jordan Love’s first entire season as a starter was a rousing success, passing for over 4,100 yards and finishing with a 32:11 TD: INT ratio. His ability to spread the ball to all of Green Bay’s wide receivers rather than focusing on one or two, coupled with his ability to scramble when plays broke down, made him a difficult opponent for defenses to gameplan for. In one of the most significant postseason upsets, Love dismantled the Dallas Cowboys’ secondary on the road en route to a 48-32 victory in the NFC Wild Card game. His 2023 season set the bar high for expectations.

Our QB10 at FantasyPros, RTS, confidently ranked him several spots higher as their QB6 over C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow. I like the call, but his current cost on their website saps away any potential room for return on investment and puts a ton of pressure on him to take another step forward in his progressions. Hopefully, he has another gear.

Anthony Richardson is another popular breakout pick on several websites due to his combination of tantalizing physical traits and surrounding talent in Indianapolis. Due to his intimidating stature, Richardson draws constant comparisons to Cam Newton. Fantasy managers are crossing their fingers Richardson becomes less reckless when absorbing contact on the run in 2024 after he missed the majority of last year with a grade-3 AC joint sprain (this was after he sustained a concussion in Week 2).

Based on the tiny sample size he left us with last season, Richardson has top-five potential if he puts everything together. An improved offensive line coupled with the healthy return of Jonathan Taylor is a significant boon, and the Colts have a trio of wideouts in Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and rookie Adonai Mitchell that can challenge defenders at all levels of the field. Richardson’s range of outcomes from league winner to being placed on inured reserve (IR) again is vast, but to RTS, he is worth the risk.

Running Backs

James Cook’s 2023 campaign should be viewed in two parts — before and after Joe Brady took over as the Buffalo offensive coordinator in Week 11. In the first half of the season, Cook surpassed 14 rushing attempts just twice, but after Brady was handed the reigns, he broke that threshold in all but one contest. From Week 11 onward, Cook averaged over 103 total yards from scrimmage each game, becoming a more complete back than a change-of-pace option.

An explosive runner capable of making defenders miss in open space, we are hesitant to go truly all-in on Cook this year due to concerns about short-yardage and red-zone work being handed to rookie thumper Ray Davis. Early reports from training camp have Buffalo implementing a committee approach, so Cook must capitalize on his points per touch to meet this lofty ranking.

Following a magnificent rookie campaign in 2022, during which he finished with over 1,200 total yards and nine touchdowns, Kenneth Walker took a step backward last season, running with less ferocity despite several injuries he attempted to play through. A bruised shoulder, strained oblique, tender calf and sore chest made us start singing “head, shoulders, knees, and toes” while looking at the Seattle injury report.

More importantly, backup Zach Charbonnet siphoned away red-zone and receiving-game work, limiting Walker’s weekly upside to mid-RB2 status. I’m confident the Seahawks will have a potent offense this year under new head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb but split touches and an aggressive running style that invites contact leave us with tempered expectations of Walker this year.

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