This article aims to identify players and situations with the most uncertainty entering Week 1. Knowing these players will help us hone in on which usage to pay the closest attention to and whether to treat it as gospel or dismiss it as noise. Below you’ll find breakdowns of players that have the most to gain (or lose) from usage early on in the season.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Week 1 Situations to Monitor
It’s only one week. Yes, but it’ll be the first week we’ve had new NFL data since mid-February. After Week 1 concludes, the fantasy football world starts to analyze, dissect and decode the new data we’ve been graced with to answer one question: Does it matter? Of course it matters — all data is good data (well, most of the time, that is). But, the challenge becomes identifying what data suggests we should move off of our pre-season priors and adjust players based on just one (or two) weeks of usage.
Last year, Puka Nacua was going undrafted in a lot of leagues. Then, he grabbed everyone’s attention by getting 15 targets, catching 10 of those targets for 119 receiving yards. He eventually went on to break the rookie record for receiving yards. If we look back, though, he had a very fluid situation that should have called for a quicker adjustment to his rest-of-season standing in fantasy football rankings rather than how he was being treated during draft season.
First, he was a rookie. Usage for rookies is difficult to project, especially those drafted outside of the first couple of rounds, according to average draft position (ADP). Second, and more importantly, Cooper Kupp wasn’t in the mix (until Week 5, that is). While Nacua’s usage certainly shifted with Kupp’s return, he had enough time to cement his role in the offense and continue to go gangbusters for those who scooped him up off of the waiver wire following his first game. This analysis comes with loads of hindsight bias, but when that happens we should do our best to learn from it.
Running Backs
Rico Dowdle was poised to be the primary back for the Dallas Cowboys when they didn’t take a running back in the 2024 NFL Draft. That lasted all but three days when they made a move to reunite with Ezekiel Elliott on May 1st.
The last time we saw Elliott in Dallas, he (frustratingly) got 231 carries, leaving Tony Pollard in a 1B role. Now, however, Elliott will be entering his age-29 season, he’s coming off of a brutally inefficient season and Pollard is gone.
Everything about Dowdle’s situation is the same as last year, but you’re replacing Pollard with Elliott, which is about as big of a downgrade as you could make. But, there’s a chance nostalgia comes into play with Elliott’s past performance on the team and he continues to steal 8-10 touches per game. That said, if I see positive signs in Week 1 that Dowdle is going to get at least 65% of the touches and snaps, I’ll be rapidly moving him up rest-of-season fantasy football rankings.
It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster training camp and preseason for Kimani Vidal, to put it lightly. But, if you want to find someone who has a wide-open opportunity all you have to do is look at the very bottom of the chart above where he sits at RB60 by expert consensus rankings (ECR). Vidal joins a trio of backs including Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins who will be playing for the Chargers for the first time this year. They’re all set to replace the massive hole Austin Ekeler left behind.
This new backfield rotation is unique in the sense that Greg Roman (the Chargers’ new offensive coordinator) called plays for the Ravens when Edwards and Dobbins were on that team as well. So, there’s a chance he favors them over Vidal early on. It should also be noted the Chargers have a top-five offensive line in the league. Any running back getting significant carries behind that group will have an opportunity to be efficient.
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) & Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)
I’m using this to talk about the two Bears running backs who are set to lead the backfield in touches, D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert. This offseason, the Bears signed Swift to a three-year, $24 million contract. That included $14 million guaranteed, which is the eighth-most among all running back contracts at this time. So, if we follow the money, then Swift should get a large share of the workload.
Nevertheless, Herbert played well last year, ranking 17th among running backs in rushing yards over expected per carry at 0.3. So, logically (though we should never assume logical coaching), Herbert has played himself into having a solid role in the offense. We also shouldn’t forget about Roschon Johnson, who played primarily as a change-of-pace back last year and will siphon touches from both Swift and Herbert.
The final complicating factors are twofold. First, the Bears will be led by Caleb Williams. Second, Chicago hired Shane Waldron to call plays on offense. Last year, Chicago’s -4.5% pass rate over expectation (PROE) ranked 27th. Increasing that to even league-average will further limit touches for the backfield as a whole. This could be a messy situation. If by some miracle we get the sense this won’t be a complete timeshare, I’ll be ready to jump early on targeting whichever back separates himself, but odds are any fantasy-relevant back will need to thrive off of efficiency.
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