This article aims to identify players and situations with the most uncertainty entering Week 1. Knowing these players will help us hone in on which usage to pay the closest attention to and whether to treat it as gospel or dismiss it as noise. Below you’ll find breakdowns of players that have the most to gain (or lose) from usage early on in the season.
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- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Week 1 Situations to Monitor
It’s only one week. Yes, but it’ll be the first week we’ve had new NFL data since mid-February. After Week 1 concludes, the fantasy football world starts to analyze, dissect and decode the new data we’ve been graced with to answer one question: Does it matter? Of course it matters — all data is good data (well, most of the time, that is). But, the challenge becomes identifying what data suggests we should move off of our pre-season priors and adjust players based on just one (or two) weeks of usage.
Last year, Puka Nacua was going undrafted in a lot of leagues. Then, he grabbed everyone’s attention by getting 15 targets, catching 10 of those targets for 119 receiving yards. He eventually went on to break the rookie record for receiving yards. If we look back, though, he had a very fluid situation that should have called for a quicker adjustment to his rest-of-season standing in fantasy football rankings rather than how he was being treated during draft season.
First, he was a rookie. Usage for rookies is difficult to project, especially those drafted outside of the first couple of rounds, according to average draft position (ADP). Second, and more importantly, Cooper Kupp wasn’t in the mix (until Week 5, that is). While Nacua’s usage certainly shifted with Kupp’s return, he had enough time to cement his role in the offense and continue to go gangbusters for those who scooped him up off of the waiver wire following his first game. This analysis comes with loads of hindsight bias, but when that happens we should do our best to learn from it.
Wide Receivers
One of the more polarizing players in fantasy football this year is George Pickens. Target-hog Diontae Johnson is now on the Panthers, leaving Pickens to assume the WR1 role in the Steelers’ offense. There’s more than just Johnson’s absence changing Pickens’ situation as he’ll also have a new quarterback. At this point, Russell Wilson has all but won the starting quarterback job. Unfortunately, (for Pickens) Wilson failed to support a wide receiver ranked inside the top 30 in fantasy points per game last season.
I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention the fact Arthur Smith, every fantasy manager’s favorite play-caller, is now the offensive coordinator for the Steelers. While Drake London earned his fair share of targets with Smith calling plays, leave it to Smith to be the one to funnel targets to less-talented players.
Finally, Pickens’ outlook will change should the Steelers complete a trade to acquire Brandon Aiyuk (a rumor that has recently cooled off). But, I would still have Pickens on this list as that transaction would only muddy things even more. We’ve seen Pickens’ weekly range of floor and ceiling outcomes in his first two seasons, so I’ll be tracking his usage early on to see if that floor will be raised.
Though he finished as the WR17 in half-PPR leagues, Calvin Ridley had a relatively disappointing season in his first year back following a suspension. After that one year in Jacksonville, he’s now moved on to a division rival in the Tennessee Titans where he’ll slot in as one of Will Levis‘ primary targets. Levis has a play style that will inherently introduce variance from a production standpoint, but this article is geared towards focusing on player usage. That said, it’s possible having a new offensive coordinator changes that, which is something I’ll be closely paying attention to.
DeAndre Hopkins‘ injury status complicates things because if Hopkins isn’t able to play in Week 1 (though the reports have been positive), we may not get a full understanding of how Ridley’s rest-of-season usage might play out. Ridley will be turning 30 later this season, so the odds of him returning to his pre-suspension efficiency are low. However, if the usage is there out of the gate, I’ll be comfortable with him as a solid WR3.
In his sixth year in the league, Terry McLaurin is one of the lone bright spots on the Commanders’ offense. He, along with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, will be the key to Washington’s passing attack being competent. Daniels also has a chance to be the best quarterback McLaurin has played with as most of his former quarterbacks are now out of the league or in backup roles.
Last week, Washington also traded away third-year receiver and former first-round pick Jahan Dotson. With Dotson gone, McLaurin is now the best pass-catching weapon on this offense by a long shot. The question is whether he will (pardon me) command the 30% target share that he deserves or not. A lot of that also hinges on the offense Kliff Kingsbury, Washington’s offensive coordinator, implements. Regrettably, the outlook isn’t great. Ideally, McLaurin’s talent wins out, but we’ll have to wait and see.
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