The beauty of the FantasyPros Draft Simulator is that you can mock draft again and again for any league settings. For this article, I copied in the settings used for the FantasyPros Championship on FFPC, a $350 redraft contest with $1m to first place. Andrew Erickson and I recently drafted in that contest and you can see how we did here.
FFPC scoring settings are different from many platforms, with their particular twist including tight end premium scoring with an extra 0.5 PPR points per catch to the position, on top of the regular one point pe000r reception. This tends to be a more running back-hungry platform than some, so we need to take a balanced approach to the draft. For this draft, the Draft Simulator assigned us the 1.11 draft spot.
The beauty of the FantasyPros Draft Simulator is that you can mock draft again and again for any league settings. For this article, I copied in the settings used for the FantasyPros Championship on FFPC, a $350 redraft contest with $1m to first place. Andrew Erickson and I recently drafted in that contest and you can see how we did here.
FFPC scoring settings are different from many platforms, with their particular twist including tight end premium scoring with an extra 0.5 PPR points per catch to the position, on top of the regular one point pe000r reception. This tends to be a more running back-hungry platform than some, so we need to take a balanced approach to the draft. For this draft, the Draft Simulator assigned us the 1.11 draft spot.
With running backs coming off the board early, it can sometimes be scary to pick a wide receiver in Round 1. However, Garrett Wilson is a clear tier above the wide receivers drafted after him and he can be a volume-hog in New York, especially since Aaron Rodgers is by far the best QB with whom he has played.
With Travis Kelce already off the board, the other premium tight ends will go soon thereafter and not having one can leave you forced to approach the position with volume instead. Taking Sam LaPorta here might be a risk, as he could very easily see touchdown regression and struggle to keep up with the likes of Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. It’s also possible that 00Sam LaPorta takes a second-year leap and continue an upward trajectory.
The Eagles look poised to be a much more fun offense in 2024, with a new offensive coordinator set to bring more motion and creativity to a team that was devoid of it last year. While AJ Brown struggled in the second half of the season, DeVonta Smith had no such problems and averaged 16.1 PPR points per game from Week 8 onwards. With a healthy quarterback and better offense around him, Smith can easily pay off his ADP.
The turn wasn’t kind to us with James Cook and Alvin Kamara both going off the board, so it’s time to lean into a full Zero RB build. When doing this in managed leagues, you’ll need to get aggressive on the waiver wire in order to grab the emerging running backs, but you also need to make sure you’re deep enough at wide receiver that it becomes a real strength for you each and every week. Taking Malik Nabers as our WR3 provides a chance at elite-tier talent, but we also have enough depth to wait for him to find his feet in the NFL.
Stacking is less of a priority in managed leagues than best ball ones, but the chance to pair Jalen Hurts with DeVonta Smith is too good to pass up. There might be weeks where Hurts snags all the touchdowns; that tactic saw Hurts have 16 rush attempts inside the 5-yard line last year, which was eighth-most in the league, and he converted it into 13 into touchdowns. Hurts looks to be healthier this year after dealing with a bone bruise and he should be able to regain some of the passing stats that trailed off over the second half of 2024.
Again, the turn wasn’t kind to us with D’Andre Swift and Raheem Mostert both taken. Perhaps now would have been the time to go for one of Zack Moss, Jaylen Warren, or Najee Harris, all of whom will go quickly after our pick, but having Zay Flowers as our WR4 allows us to make sure we have enough wide receiver talent that it should be a strength every week. Taking shots on second-year players who flashed in their first year has been a consistent winning strategy in fantasy football.
Now it’s time to hammer the running back position. Jerome Ford might not be the glitziest running back, but our strategy means we’re planning on scoring a lot of WR points each week and the running backs just need to give us some level of floor production. Ford will guarantee us some early-season production while Nick Chubb is still recovering from his multi-surgery ACL injury. This will buy us time to make acquisitions on the waiver wire to further support the running back room.
Much like Jerome Ford, we’re just looking for touches here, and with Kimani Vidal struggling in Chargers’ camp, it seems likely that Gus Edwards could see a large volume of touches on a potentially run-heavy offense. Edwards scored the fourth-most RB touchdowns in 2023 with 13. He’ll need to be less reliant on touchdowns to really pay off in 2024 but at this cost, it’s a bet worth taking.
Reports continue to suggest Rico Dowdle will be the lead back in Dallas, which shouldn’t be too surprising given that Ezekiel Elliott set career-lows in success rate in 2023 (45.1%) and failed to break a single rush longer than 17 yards on 184 attempts. Dowdle might not be a true three-down back, but again, we’re looking for floor production here and if he turns into anything more than that, it’s a great result.
Unlike the three previous picks, Ty Chandler might not have an immediate floor, but he impressed last season with with four top-36 weekly finishes in the five games where he had 13 or more touches. Aaron Jones struggled through injuries in 2023 and turns 30 before the season finishes. Chandler likely mixes into this backfield more than the person who drafted Jones would like.
With our running back room looking better, we can now move back to other positions. Romeo Doubs has been excellent in training camp and by all reports, he looks to be Jordan Love‘s favorite target. Doubs might not be as flashy as Christian Watson or Dontayvion Wicks, but he’ll likely be on the field more often than any other Packers receiver and can accumulate volume, something we care about in PPR formats.
We’re going back to the Packers here and betting on another young talent who can emerge. In this tight end premium format, it’s important not to get left behind at the position. While LaPorta has to pay off for us to win $1m, we can also start tight ends in the flex and there will be weeks where Musgrave’s athleticism is a matchup nightmare for defenses.
Back to the running back position and this time, we’re taking a shot on a post-hype sleeper in Dameon Pierce. He struggled to adapt to the new Texans’ scheme in 2023, but apparently he is picking it up a little better in 2024. With Joe Mixon dealing with injuries throughout this off-season, it’s possible that we don’t have to wait long for this pick to pay off.
Rachaad White has consistently been one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL and it’s unlikely that will change as he heads into his third year. Bucky Irving is the perfect compliment to White and a clear tier above the likes of Sean Tucker and Chase Edmonds, who make up the rest of this backfield. Additionally, having a nice mix of rookies on a roster is essential.
In shallower leagues, we might want to avoid taking a second quarterback, but here with 20 rounds in which to pick, we don’t want to be boxed out by other drafters taking several quarterbacks. Geno Smith feels primed for a bounceback season with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and improved offensive line play.
With Tee Higgins frequently injured over the last couple years, it wouldn’t be surprising if Burton has a clear opportunity to fight for snaps on a team that has consistently deployed three wide receivers over the last few years. The Bengals schedule is a cupcake this year, due to a miserable fourth place finish in the AFC North last year, but with Joe Burrow potentially healthy again, this could be a worthwhile later dart throw.
Picking on the turn, it can be easy to get left behind on a positional run, so getting out ahead of it and picking one of the very best set-it-and-forget-it defenses takes away a headache.
Another big upside play is Isaiah Likely. If the Ravens are true to their word, then Likely is going to have a much bigger role in their offense this year, with them likely (no pun intended) to play more two tight end sets. This also gives us leverage against the team with Mark Andrews.
The University of Washington produced three top-100 wide receivers in this year’s draft, and while Jalen McMillan was the last of the three to be drafted behind Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, McMillan still warrants our attention. By all accounts, McMillan has had an excellent camp and will be in play for the WR3 position on a Bucs offense that has been fantasy-friendly in recent years.
Conclusions
The Draft Wizard gave us a disappointing C+ here, pointing to three running back selections as reaches. We made our bed with the Zero RB approach and it’s not always going to look pretty on draft day, but redraft leagues aren’t won at the draft. With an elite WR room, as well as potentially the QB1 and TE1 in Hurts and LaPorta, we have enough talent to go nuclear with the right waiver wire claims.
I'm a fantasy football addict, particularly in love with best ball and DFS. I can often be found scrutinising ADP and looking for edges in the best ball streets.
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